经济发展过程中“人口红利”的反思与再定义

发布时间：2018-10-15 18:40

【摘要】：经典文献和学术界主流更多地从人口年龄结构对经济增长的影响这一角度来观察和分析"人口红利"。经典的"人口红利"概念不足以体现人口转变对经济增长的积极影响。人口年龄结构变动对经济增长产生的积极影响,与这一过程中人口质量的提升密不可分。因此,"人口红利"应该被定义为:在人口转变开始后,由人口年龄结构变动与人口质量提升共同作用形成的、有利于经济增长的人口条件。文章利用生产函数构造了新的"人口红利"测度指标,在此基础上,分析了中国未来人口变动对经济增长的影响,结论是人口质量提升能够使人口变动长期有利于经济增长。因此,中国未来人口发展的方向是人口质量的提升,而不是依赖生育政策来延续所谓"有利于经济增长的人口年龄结构"。
[Abstract]:The classical literature and the academic mainstream observe and analyze the demographic dividend from the perspective of the impact of the age structure of the population on economic growth. The classical concept of "demographic dividend" is not enough to reflect the positive impact of population change on economic growth. The positive effect of the change of population age structure on economic growth is closely related to the improvement of population quality. Therefore, the "demographic dividend" should be defined as the population condition which is formed by the combination of the change of population age structure and the improvement of population quality after the beginning of population transition, which is conducive to economic growth. In this paper, a new "demographic dividend" index is constructed by using production function. On this basis, the influence of future population changes on economic growth in China is analyzed. The conclusion is that population change can make population change benefit economic growth for a long time. Therefore, China's future population development direction is to improve the quality of the population, rather than relying on fertility policies to continue the so-called "economic growth of the population age structure."
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【分类号】：C964.2;F124

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