中国对俄罗斯直接投资与贸易关系研究

发布时间：2018-10-17 13:54

【摘要】：国家之间的经济交往活动在形式上主要表现为国际贸易与国际直接投资,国际贸易主要表现为商品的国际交换,国际直接投资表现为生产资本的国际流动。从经济全球化的历史来看,新航路开辟后,世界经济通过殖民扩张开始联系在一起,而殖民扩张为最早的国际贸易,第一次工业革命之后,资本主义世界市场初步形成,资本主义国家的对外贸易以商品贸易为主,第二次工业革命之后,资本主义世界市场最终形成,这一时期资本主义国家的对外贸易以资本输出为主,主要形式为组建跨国公司来取得更多的利益,第二次世界大战之后的经济全球化趋势更加明显,主要表现为贸易全球化、资本全球化、生产全球化、经济管理制度的国际化,因此可以看出,国际贸易的出现早于国际资本的形成,并且表现为国际投资的先导,而在当今世界经济一体化的进程中,交叉融合的趋势开始日渐明显。改革开放以来,中国的经济高速增长,对外贸易与对外直接投资规模不断扩大,因此积极发展对外直接投资对中国经济可持续发展具有更为重要的战略意义。本文旨在结合国别的基础上对投资与贸易的关系进行研究,使结论更具现实意义。俄罗斯是中国最大的邻国,两国之间有着很深的历史渊源。同时,俄罗斯也是世界上著名的能源大国、科技大国和核大国。俄罗斯在前苏联时期曾经是一个高度发达的工业化国家,在20世纪90年代经历了一场严重的社会政治危机之后,国家综合实力大受影响,但是在叶利钦、普京和梅德韦杰夫三任领导人及俄罗斯民众的努力下,俄罗斯在各方面复苏飞快,特别是经济实力的恢复,俄罗斯有着厚实的经济基础,再加上政局稳定,国家和社会平稳发展,俄罗斯目前又是国际经济学界公认的当今世界经济发展最快的国家之一。因此,加强与俄罗斯的经贸合作对加强中俄睦邻友好关系有相当大的影响,具有重要的政治意义。本文首先回顾了中国对俄罗斯直接投资发展历程,分析了其投资的规模、行业及主体分布特征,并总结了中国企业在俄罗斯开展直接投资所面临的障碍。其次对中俄两国双边贸易发展历程,进出口商品结构及中俄贸易中存在的问题进行了详细阐述。然后通过建立VAR模型实证分析了中国对俄罗斯直接投资与中俄贸易间的动态关系,发现中国对俄罗斯直接投资与中俄贸易(包括进口、出口)之间的确存在着长期的均衡关系。通过格兰杰因果检验发现,中国对俄罗斯直接投资与中国对俄罗斯出口和进口之间存在单向因果关系。通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解发现,中国对俄罗斯直接投资对中俄贸易的影响存在明显的滞后现象,中国对俄罗斯直接投资对中国对俄罗斯进口开始会有正向的影响之后渐渐转化为负向影响;而中国对俄罗斯直接投资对中国对俄罗斯出口开始冲击较小,之后正向影响增强且趋于稳定。最后,在综合分析的基础上提出了相关建议,包括防范投资合作风险、建立并启动应急预案、积极推进落实两国地区合作规划纲要、加快对俄经济特区进军的步伐、加强平台建设、积极探索新型合作模式,加强引导提升投资层次等,以期更好地利用中国对外直接投资推动中国对外贸易的发展。
[Abstract]:The economic interaction between countries is mainly characterized by international trade and international direct investment, international trade is mainly manifested as international exchange of commodities, and international direct investment is reflected in the international flow of production capital. From the history of economic globalization, after the opening of the new route, the world economy began to link with the colonial expansion, while the colonial expansion was the earliest international trade. After the first industrial revolution, the capitalist world market was initially formed. The foreign trade of capitalist countries is dominated by commodity trade. After the second industrial revolution, the capitalist world market is finally formed. The foreign trade of the capitalist countries in this period is mainly based on capital output. The main form is to form transnational corporations to gain more benefits. The trend of economic globalization after the Second World War was more obvious, mainly represented by the globalization of trade, the globalization of capital, the globalization of production and the internationalization of economic management system. Therefore, it can be seen that the emergence of international trade was early in the formation of international capital. And the trend of cross-integration is becoming more and more obvious in the process of world economic integration. Since the reform and opening-up, China's economic growth, foreign trade and foreign direct investment have been expanding. Therefore, the positive development of foreign direct investment is of great strategic significance to the sustainable development of China's economy. The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between investment and trade, and make the conclusion more practical. Russia is one of China's largest neighbors, and there are deep pockets between the two countries. At the same time, Russia is also the world's famous energy nation, science and technology power and nuclear power. Russia was once a highly developed industrialized country in the Soviet era, after a serious social political crisis in the 1990s, the country's comprehensive strength was greatly affected, but in Yeltsin, With the efforts of Mr. Putin and the three leaders of Medvedev and the Russian people, Russia's recovery in various areas, particularly the recovery of economic power, has a solid economic base and a steady development of political stability, national and social stability, Russia is now one of the fastest growing economies in the world today. Therefore, it is of great political significance to strengthen the economic and trade cooperation with Russia and have a considerable influence on strengthening the good-neighborly friendship between China and Russia. This paper first reviews the development of China's direct investment in Russia, analyzes the scale, industry and main distribution characteristics of its investment, and sums up the obstacles faced by Chinese enterprises in the development of direct investment in Russia. Secondly, the development of bilateral trade between China and Russia, the structure of import and export commodities and the existing problems in Sino-Russian trade are expounded in detail. Then, by establishing VAR model, the paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between China's direct investment and Sino-Russian trade, and finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's direct investment and Sino-Russian trade (including import and export). Through Granger causality test, China's direct investment in Russia and China have a one-way causal relationship to Russia's exports and imports. By means of impulse response function and variance decomposition, China's direct investment in Russia has a significant lag on Sino-Russian trade, and China's direct investment in Russia is gradually transformed into negative influence upon China's positive influence on Russia's import. China's direct investment in Russia has little impact on China's exports to Russia, and then has a positive impact on strengthening and stabilizing. Finally, put forward relevant suggestions on the basis of comprehensive analysis, including preventing investment cooperation risk, establishing and starting emergency plan, actively promoting the implementation of cooperative planning outline of two countries, accelerating the march of Russian special economic zone, strengthening the construction of platform, and actively exploring new type of cooperation mode. We should strengthen the promotion of investment hierarchy and so on, with a view to making better use of China's foreign direct investment to promote the development of China's foreign trade.
【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125;F151.2

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