我国产能利用水平及其对通货膨胀影响的研究
发布时间：2018-11-01 17:04
【摘要】：本文主要从理论和实证方面出发研究目前的经济热点问题——产能过剩，着重阐释了我国出现产能过剩的原因及后果，并同时结合我国在经济发展过程中出现的通货膨胀问题来分析产能过剩对我国经济发展的影响以及如何来有效治理我国的产能过剩问题。 本文的模型采用了运筹学中关于多目标规划的DEA模型（数据包络分析方法），在微观角度上评价我国主要制造业的产能利用情况，对比生产函数法和数据包络分析方法两种方法的差异并论证DEA方法在测算行业产能利用率方面的有效性。同时利用多元线性回归拟合系数来测算出我国工业产能利用率，然后利用VAR模型（向量自回归）通过冲击响应和方差分解来分析产能利用情况和通货膨胀水平之间的实证关系。 本文通过研究发现：（1）目前我国出现的产能过剩行业与我国目前所处的经济发展阶段是相吻合的，供给与需求的不均衡以及政府主导经济发展的这一体制性问题导致了部分行业出现了严重的产能过剩问题。（2）通过DEA方法测算的产能利用率是比较合理的，，具有较高的参考价值。（3）产能利用情况与通货膨胀水平有着一定的相关性，产能利用率这一指标作为预测和分析经济发展前景和现状有着较好的适用性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the author mainly studies the current hot economic problem, overcapacity, from the theoretical and empirical aspects, focusing on explaining the causes and consequences of overcapacity in China. At the same time, it analyzes the impact of overcapacity on the economic development of our country and how to deal with the problem of overcapacity effectively. The model of this paper adopts the DEA model (data Envelopment Analysis method) about multi-objective programming in operational research, and evaluates the capacity utilization of the main manufacturing industry in China from a microscopic perspective. The differences between the production function method and the data envelopment analysis method are compared and the validity of the DEA method in measuring the industry productivity utilization ratio is demonstrated. At the same time, the multiple linear regression fitting coefficient is used to calculate the industrial productivity utilization ratio in China, and then the VAR model (vector autoregressive model) is used to analyze the empirical relationship between productivity utilization and inflation by means of shock response and variance decomposition. This paper finds that: (1) the overcapacity industry in our country is in line with the stage of economic development. The imbalance between supply and demand and the institutional problem of government-led economic development have led to serious overcapacity problems in some industries. (2) the utilization rate of production capacity measured by DEA method is more reasonable. It has high reference value. (3) the productivity utilization has certain correlation with the inflation level, and the productivity utilization ratio can be used to forecast and analyze the economic development prospect and present situation.
【学位授予单位】：北京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124;F822.5
本文编号：2304548
[Abstract]:In this paper, the author mainly studies the current hot economic problem, overcapacity, from the theoretical and empirical aspects, focusing on explaining the causes and consequences of overcapacity in China. At the same time, it analyzes the impact of overcapacity on the economic development of our country and how to deal with the problem of overcapacity effectively. The model of this paper adopts the DEA model (data Envelopment Analysis method) about multi-objective programming in operational research, and evaluates the capacity utilization of the main manufacturing industry in China from a microscopic perspective. The differences between the production function method and the data envelopment analysis method are compared and the validity of the DEA method in measuring the industry productivity utilization ratio is demonstrated. At the same time, the multiple linear regression fitting coefficient is used to calculate the industrial productivity utilization ratio in China, and then the VAR model (vector autoregressive model) is used to analyze the empirical relationship between productivity utilization and inflation by means of shock response and variance decomposition. This paper finds that: (1) the overcapacity industry in our country is in line with the stage of economic development. The imbalance between supply and demand and the institutional problem of government-led economic development have led to serious overcapacity problems in some industries. (2) the utilization rate of production capacity measured by DEA method is more reasonable. It has high reference value. (3) the productivity utilization has certain correlation with the inflation level, and the productivity utilization ratio can be used to forecast and analyze the economic development prospect and present situation.
【学位授予单位】：北京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124;F822.5
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