基于CGE的中国碳排放增长分解及减排策略研究

发布时间：2018-11-06 10:40

【摘要】：人为气候变化是当今世界的面临的主要问题之一,其中,全球气候变暖这一问题异常严重,这是由于二氧化碳的排放所导致的。世界各方已达成共识,认为温室气体浓度增加是由人类的活动导致的,其中主要包括人口增长、技术革新、政治和经济制度变革,经济活动以及社会发展。为了缓解温室效应,国际社会不断施加压力,呼吁人类应当努力减少二氧化碳的排放。“京都议定书”和“哥本哈根协议”标志着全球向低碳经济转型的坚定信念。在2005年,中国的碳排放量首次超过美国,成为世界最大的碳排放国。作为主要的二氧化碳排放国,中国政府宣布了“到2020年,我国单位GDP的二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降40%-45%”。基于当前现状,本文开展了中国碳排放增长分解及减排策略研究。首先,从二氧化碳总体排放情况、各省市二氧化碳排放情况以及各行业二氧化碳排放情况三个视角分析了我国当前碳排放现状。其次,研究了导致我国近年来碳排放增长的内在驱动因素。本文运用结构分解分析方法,对基于投入产出数据的碳排放增长进行了全面的探讨,并从九个方面探讨了导致我国近年来碳排放增长的内在原因。再次,构建了可计算的一般均衡模型,进一步分析了我国能源结构调整,能源效率变化以及产业结构调整对我国经济的影响和减排贡献。最终,在静态CGE模型的基础上,嵌入环境模块和动态模块,构建了情景分析,设定了不同的碳税税率情景以及不同的税收返还机制情景,全面模拟了碳税的影响,并提出了政策建议。本文对我国二氧化碳排放问题的研究以及政策模拟分析所得到的研究结论,对我国实现节能减排,实现我国对国际社会的减排承诺,以及建立“经济-能源-环境”的整体政策框架具有一定的理论意义和借鉴意义。同时,为我国政府制定“十三五”规划以及减排的一系列政策计划提供了重要的信息。
[Abstract]:Anthropogenic climate change is one of the main problems facing the world today, among which, the global warming problem is extremely serious, which is caused by the emission of carbon dioxide. There is a consensus around the world that the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is caused by human activities, including population growth, technological innovation, political and economic institutional change, economic activity and social development. To ease Greenhouse Effect, international pressure continues to call for efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accord mark a strong belief in the global transition to a low-carbon economy. In 2005, for the first time, China overtook the United States as the world's largest emitter. As the main emitter of carbon dioxide, the Chinese government announced that "by 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be 40% to 45% lower than in 2005." Based on the current situation, this paper studies the decomposition of carbon emissions and emission reduction strategies in China. Firstly, the present situation of carbon dioxide emissions in China is analyzed from three perspectives: the total carbon dioxide emissions, the carbon dioxide emissions of provinces and cities and the carbon dioxide emissions of various industries. Secondly, the paper studies the internal driving factors of carbon emission growth in China in recent years. In this paper, the growth of carbon emissions based on input-output data is comprehensively discussed by means of structural decomposition analysis, and the internal causes leading to the increase of carbon emissions in China in recent years are discussed from nine aspects. Thirdly, a computable general equilibrium model is constructed, and the effects of energy structure adjustment, energy efficiency change and industrial structure adjustment on China's economy and the contribution to emission reduction are further analyzed. Finally, based on the static CGE model, the environment module and the dynamic module are embedded, the scenario analysis is constructed, the different scenarios of the carbon tax rate and the different tax return mechanism are set up, and the influence of the carbon tax is simulated comprehensively. And put forward the policy suggestion. In this paper, the conclusion of the research on carbon dioxide emissions in China and the policy simulation analysis, to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, to achieve China's commitment to the international community to reduce emissions. And the establishment of "economy-energy-environment" overall policy framework has certain theoretical significance and reference significance. At the same time, it provides important information for our government to formulate the 13th Five-Year Plan and a series of policy plans for emission reduction.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196;F124.5

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