基于索洛模型的辽宁省经济增长研究

发布时间：2018-11-07 21:04

【摘要】：2003年,国家提出全面振兴东北老工业基地,东北三省迎来了经济的全面振兴。辽宁省作为东北三省的经济中心,自2004年起,GDP增速远远高于全国平均水平,最高时达到了15%。2016年10月,国务院召开振兴东北地区等老工业基地推进会议,部署了进一步推动东北振兴的工作。此时的辽宁省经济增长速度已经是逐年较大幅度降低,2014年和2015年连续两年低于全国平均水平。根据最新数据显示,2016年上半年GDP增速排名中,辽宁省仍然垫底,并且增速为负。如何改变辽宁省当前严峻的经济形势成为一个迫切而又关键的问题。根据索洛模型,在劳动、资本和技术三大要素中,资本对于经济的拉动作用逐渐消失,经济的持续增长将主要依赖于技术进步。本文基于索洛模型,从劳动、资本和技术三方面入手,深入分析了当前辽宁省的经济现状。通过研究发现,辽宁省存在人口老龄化问题、固定资产投资规模缩小及结构不合理,以及技术水平较低问题。为了找出造成辽宁省经济增速放缓的关键因素,本文结合索洛模型理论结果,从贡献率、经济稳态以及技术与经济增长关系三方面进行实证分析,实证结果表明技术水平是制约辽宁省经济增长的关键因素。根据理论与实证分析结果,本文针对当前辽宁省经济增长存在的问题提出合理的政策建议,包括积极开发老年人资源,拓展投资渠道,改善投资结构,以及技术方面加大科技人力、财力投入和资本投入,提升科技意识等。
[Abstract]:In 2003, the state proposed to revitalize the old industrial base in Northeast China, and the three Northeast provinces ushered in the overall revitalization of the economy. As the economic center of the three northeastern provinces, since 2004, the growth rate of GDP in Liaoning Province has been far above the national average, reaching the highest level in October 15.2016. The State Council convened a conference to promote the revitalization of old industrial bases in the Northeast region. Plans have been made to further promote the revitalization of the Northeast. At this time, Liaoning Province's economic growth rate has been greatly reduced year by year, 2014 and 2015 for two consecutive years below the national average. Liaoning Province remained the lowest and negative in GDP growth in the first half of 2016, according to the latest data. How to change Liaoning's current severe economic situation has become an urgent and critical problem. According to Solow model, among the three elements of labor, capital and technology, the pulling effect of capital on economy gradually disappears, and the sustained growth of economy will mainly depend on technological progress. Based on Solow model, this paper analyzes the present economic situation of Liaoning Province from three aspects: labor, capital and technology. It is found that the problem of aging population, the reduction of fixed asset investment scale and unreasonable structure, and the low technology level exist in Liaoning Province. In order to find out the key factors causing the slowdown of economic growth in Liaoning Province, this paper, based on the theoretical results of Solow model, makes an empirical analysis from three aspects: the contribution rate, the steady state of economy and the relationship between technology and economic growth. The empirical results show that the technical level is the key factor restricting the economic growth of Liaoning Province. According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some reasonable policy suggestions for the problems existing in the economic growth of Liaoning Province, including actively developing resources for the elderly, expanding investment channels, and improving the investment structure. And the technical aspect increases the science and technology manpower, the financial resources investment and the capital investment, enhances the science and technology consciousness and so on.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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