云南省城乡收入差距影响因素分析
发布时间：2018-11-10 19:08
【摘要】：自解放全中国以来，我国高度重视工业的发展，尤其是重工业的发展，而工业主要集中在城市，造成城市的优先发展，但在当时的环境下，国家资金有限，不得不采取牺牲农业的策略，不断从农业吸取资金，注入到工业的发展中，并且在改革初期实行了户籍制，农村的大量的剩余劳力无法充实到工业中，造成了农村无法分享到城市的发展成果，无法和城市中公民享有同样的福利待遇，这些造成了城乡二元经济的基础，并随着经济不断的发展，这种差距有不断被拉大的趋势。 现在，城乡差距的不断拉大，严重制约了我国经济的持续发展，成为经济发展中名副其实的“短板”，同时和城乡收入差距不断拉大同时存在的贫富差距悬殊的问题，不断的挑战社会的和谐发展，造成了很多的社会问题和社会的乱象。因此，城乡发展差距的拉大问题成为了一个全社会共同关注的问题，也成为实现社会和谐发展，解决社会乱象，实现经济可持续发展的目标的必经之路。 本文是对云南城乡收入差距的实证分析与研究，引用了1990年到2012年的云南的城乡收入的数据，首先运用了拟合趋势和ARIMA模型对云南现阶段的城乡差距做了一个分析，并对其发展趋势做了预测，进而运用2011年的云南的城乡的主要的经济发展因素的数据，对城市和乡村的经济发展因素，分别运用主成分分析和多元回归分析，，找出影响云南城乡收入差距的部分因素。最后是本文的主要结论和政策建议。 研究结果表明：云南省的城乡收入差距不断地被拉大，预测的结果是，如没有政策的变动，云南的城乡收入差距将不断的被拉大。通过主成分分析，把10个因子组合成了两个因子，进而对这两个因子与云南省城乡收入比值进行回归分析，找到各个因子在云南省城乡居民收入差距中的作用，区分出各个因子的作用的大小。因此，现阶段的乡村的发展主要是依靠城市发展产生收入对农村的反哺，无法自身进行内在循环，这是由于历史条件和中国独特的发展过程造成的，具有一定的不可避免性，但从长远来看，城乡差距的不断地扩大，使我们不能满足于现状，必须提出解决方案，使我国经济的发展尽快的跨过这一阶段，缩小城乡差距，解决日益严重的社会问题，所以我们必须为农村的经济发展结构的转型做努力，早日缩小差距，使农村成为自我可持续发展的经济模式。
[Abstract]:Since the liberation of the whole of China, our country has attached great importance to the development of industry, especially the development of heavy industry, which is mainly concentrated in cities, which has given priority to the development of cities. However, under the circumstances at that time, state funds were limited. We had to adopt the strategy of sacrificing agriculture, continue to draw funds from agriculture and inject it into the development of industry, and at the beginning of the reform we had to implement the household registration system, and a large amount of surplus rural labour could not be replenished to industry. As a result, rural areas can not share the fruits of urban development, and can not enjoy the same welfare treatment as the citizens in cities. These have resulted in the basis of urban-rural dual economy, and with the continuous development of the economy, the gap has been constantly widened. At present, the widening gap between urban and rural areas has seriously restricted the sustained economic development of our country and has become a real "short board" in economic development. At the same time, the gap between the rich and the poor, which exists at the same time as the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, is a problem that exists at the same time. Constantly challenging the harmonious development of society, caused a lot of social problems and social chaos. Therefore, the widening of the gap between urban and rural development has become a common concern of the whole society, but also become the only way to realize the harmonious development of society, to solve the social chaos, and to achieve the goal of sustainable economic development. This paper is an empirical analysis and research on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Yunnan Province, and cites the data of urban and rural income in Yunnan from 1990 to 2012. Firstly, it makes an analysis of the urban-rural gap in Yunnan at present by using the fitting trend and ARIMA model. The author forecasts its development trend, then applies the data of the main economic development factors of urban and rural areas in 2011, and applies principal component analysis and multivariate regression analysis to the economic development factors of urban and rural areas, respectively. Find out some factors that affect the income gap between urban and rural areas in Yunnan. Finally, the main conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper. The results show that the urban-rural income gap in Yunnan Province is constantly widening, and the predicted result is that the urban-rural income gap in Yunnan will continue to be widened if there is no policy change. Through principal component analysis, the 10 factors are combined into two factors, and then the regression analysis between these two factors and the ratio of urban and rural income of Yunnan Province is carried out to find out the role of each factor in the income gap between urban and rural residents in Yunnan Province. Distinguish the size of the action of each factor. Therefore, the current development of rural areas mainly depends on the income generated by urban development to feed back to the rural areas, and can not carry out its own internal circulation. This is caused by historical conditions and the unique development process of China, which is inevitable. However, in the long run, the widening gap between urban and rural areas makes us unable to satisfy the present situation. We must put forward solutions to enable the economic development of our country to cross this stage as soon as possible, to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas, and to solve the increasingly serious social problems. Therefore, we must make efforts for the transformation of rural economic development structure, reduce the gap as soon as possible, and make the rural areas become the economic model of self-sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.7
本文编号：2323343
[Abstract]:Since the liberation of the whole of China, our country has attached great importance to the development of industry, especially the development of heavy industry, which is mainly concentrated in cities, which has given priority to the development of cities. However, under the circumstances at that time, state funds were limited. We had to adopt the strategy of sacrificing agriculture, continue to draw funds from agriculture and inject it into the development of industry, and at the beginning of the reform we had to implement the household registration system, and a large amount of surplus rural labour could not be replenished to industry. As a result, rural areas can not share the fruits of urban development, and can not enjoy the same welfare treatment as the citizens in cities. These have resulted in the basis of urban-rural dual economy, and with the continuous development of the economy, the gap has been constantly widened. At present, the widening gap between urban and rural areas has seriously restricted the sustained economic development of our country and has become a real "short board" in economic development. At the same time, the gap between the rich and the poor, which exists at the same time as the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, is a problem that exists at the same time. Constantly challenging the harmonious development of society, caused a lot of social problems and social chaos. Therefore, the widening of the gap between urban and rural development has become a common concern of the whole society, but also become the only way to realize the harmonious development of society, to solve the social chaos, and to achieve the goal of sustainable economic development. This paper is an empirical analysis and research on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Yunnan Province, and cites the data of urban and rural income in Yunnan from 1990 to 2012. Firstly, it makes an analysis of the urban-rural gap in Yunnan at present by using the fitting trend and ARIMA model. The author forecasts its development trend, then applies the data of the main economic development factors of urban and rural areas in 2011, and applies principal component analysis and multivariate regression analysis to the economic development factors of urban and rural areas, respectively. Find out some factors that affect the income gap between urban and rural areas in Yunnan. Finally, the main conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper. The results show that the urban-rural income gap in Yunnan Province is constantly widening, and the predicted result is that the urban-rural income gap in Yunnan will continue to be widened if there is no policy change. Through principal component analysis, the 10 factors are combined into two factors, and then the regression analysis between these two factors and the ratio of urban and rural income of Yunnan Province is carried out to find out the role of each factor in the income gap between urban and rural residents in Yunnan Province. Distinguish the size of the action of each factor. Therefore, the current development of rural areas mainly depends on the income generated by urban development to feed back to the rural areas, and can not carry out its own internal circulation. This is caused by historical conditions and the unique development process of China, which is inevitable. However, in the long run, the widening gap between urban and rural areas makes us unable to satisfy the present situation. We must put forward solutions to enable the economic development of our country to cross this stage as soon as possible, to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas, and to solve the increasingly serious social problems. Therefore, we must make efforts for the transformation of rural economic development structure, reduce the gap as soon as possible, and make the rural areas become the economic model of self-sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.7
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 袁岳驷;何光汉;;缩小我国城乡差距的根本途径[J];中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版);2008年03期
2 陈安平;;城乡收入差距与经济增长的关系研究[J];中央财经大学学报;2009年06期
本文编号：2323343
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