中国进口货物商品结构与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-11-13 19:34

【摘要】：1978-2013年，我国对外贸易发展取得了令人骄傲的成绩，对外贸易总额从206.4亿美元增至4.16万亿美元，年均16.4%的增长率。然而近年来，尽管我国对外贸易快速发展，，但贸易结构却不均衡，货物贸易顺差迅速增长。纵观我国货物进口商品结构可以发现：进口货物总额中工业制成品的比重下降约8.2个百分点；机电产品的进口比重从52.7%降至43%，降幅明显；高新技术产品的进口比重也从28.1%降至27.9%；消费性商品中主要资源性中间品的进口比重较大，消费品进口规模逐年扩大但比重依然较小等。2012年4月30日，国务院颁布的《关于加强进口促进对外贸易平衡发展的指导意见》及国家“十二·五”规划纲要等都提出：要注重进口贸易，扩大进口规模，促进对外贸易基本平衡，进一步优化我国进口商品结构，提高进口商品的综合效应。本文以近年来我国对外贸易结构不平衡的事实为出发点，以金融危机后我国对外贸易政策的转变及国家“十二五”规划等为背景，用理论与实证相结合、定性分析与定量分析、比较分析等方法研究我国进口货物商品结构与经济增长关系问题。首先，本文从总量规模和具体结构两方面分析我国进口货物商品结构发展现状，进而总结出我国进口货物商品结构的特点；接着，对我国进口货物商品总量与经济增长关系、基于SITC分类的进口货物商品与经济增长关系进行实证分析，得出不同类别的进口货物商品结构对我国经济增长的影响程度；最后从调整进口战略和调整进口货物商品结构等方面提出优化我国进口商品结构的对策建议。
[Abstract]:From 1978 to 2013, China's foreign trade achieved a proud achievement. The total foreign trade increased from 20.64 billion US dollars to 4.16 trillion US dollars, with an average annual growth rate of 16.4%. However, in recent years, despite the rapid development of China's foreign trade, the trade structure is not balanced, and the goods trade surplus is growing rapidly. Looking at the structure of China's imports of goods, we can find that the proportion of manufactured goods in total imported goods decreased by about 8.2 percentage points, and the import proportion of mechanical and electrical products dropped from 52.7% to 43%, a significant decline. The import proportion of high-tech products also dropped from 28.1% to 27.9%. The import proportion of the main resource intermediates in consumer commodities is large, and the import scale of consumer goods is increasing year by year, but the proportion is still relatively small. On April 30, 2012, The guiding opinions on strengthening imports and promoting the balanced Development of Foreign Trade promulgated by the State Council and the outline of the State's 12th Five-Year Plan put forward the following: we should pay attention to import trade, expand the scale of imports, and promote the basic balance of foreign trade. Further optimize the structure of China's imports and improve the comprehensive effect of imported goods. Based on the fact that China's foreign trade structure has been unbalanced in recent years, this paper takes the transformation of China's foreign trade policy after the financial crisis and the "12th Five-Year Plan" as the background, combining theory with empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Comparative analysis and other methods are used to study the relationship between the structure of China's imported goods and economic growth. First of all, this paper analyzes the current situation of the structure development of China's import goods from two aspects of the total scale and the specific structure, and then summarizes the characteristics of the structure of China's imported goods. Then, the relationship between the total quantity of imported goods and economic growth, and the relationship between import goods and economic growth based on SITC classification are analyzed empirically, and the influence of the structure of different types of imported goods on the economic growth of China is obtained. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions for optimizing the structure of China's import commodities are put forward from the aspects of adjusting the import strategy and adjusting the structure of imported goods.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.61;F124

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