我国城镇居民储蓄对国民经济影响的研究

发布时间：2018-11-22 17:19

【摘要】：我国城镇化的进程加快,城镇化越来越高,城镇居民的可支配收入水平随着时间推移明显提高,相应的城镇居民的消费水平也逐年增加。随着经济发展,城镇居民的储蓄逐渐增加,对我国经济的发展有相当大的促进作用。如何加快城镇化进程,提高城镇居民的可支配收入水平,缩小地区之间的差距,成为我们未来要解决的关键问题。本文首先对城镇居民广义储蓄情况进行描述,然后从城镇居民储蓄的现状进行分析,通过从全国和东部、中部、西部的对比,总结我国城镇居民储蓄的现状,然后对城镇居民储蓄对我国经济的影响进行实证分析。本文实证分析分为两大部分:第一部分,以2003-2015年我国城镇居民储蓄的相关数据,通过研究城镇居民储蓄与我国GDP的动态变化,得出我国经济变化与城镇居民储蓄有相关关系。本文通过对城镇居民储蓄与GDP的协整分析,发现GDP与城镇居民储蓄处于长期均衡的状态,通过研究发现,GDP的增长会促使城镇居民储蓄的增大,也就是说,我国经济增长能促进城镇居民储蓄的增大;另外,GDP的变化会很快反映到城镇居民储蓄的变化,说明它的滞后期短。这部分由于只涉及到时间序列数据,分析的结果可能忽略了一些因素而造成误差较大,因此,第二部分采用了面板数据建模来确定二者之间的关系。第二部分,以2003-2015年我国31个地区的面板数据建立面板模型,研究城镇居民储蓄的变化对我国经济的影响。首先,通过检验判断确定面板模型的形式,通过建立面板模型,分析城镇居民储蓄与GDP的相关关系;其次,将全国划分为3个经济带地区,分别对东部、中部和西部3个地区建立面板模型,通过对比分析,分别得出3个地区城镇居民储蓄与GDP的关系;最后,通过对比分析的结果,我们得到一些结论。根据研究的结论,提出以下促进城镇居民储蓄合理增加的建议:1.减小地区经济差距,保持合理稳定发展;2.提高城镇居民收入;3.稳定市场经济活动,增强居民投资信心;4.科学进行城镇化建设。
[Abstract]:The process of urbanization in China is speeding up, and urbanization is becoming higher and higher. The level of disposable income of urban residents increases obviously with the passage of time, and the consumption level of corresponding urban residents increases year by year. With the development of economy, the saving of urban residents increases gradually, which can promote the economic development of our country. How to speed up the process of urbanization, improve the level of disposable income of urban residents, narrow the gap between regions, become the key problem to be solved in the future. This paper first describes the general saving situation of urban residents, then analyzes the present situation of urban residents' savings, and sums up the present situation of urban residents' savings in China through the comparison between the whole country and the east, the middle and the west. Then the impact of urban residents' savings on China's economy is analyzed empirically. The empirical analysis of this paper is divided into two parts: the first part, based on the data of urban residents' savings from 2003 to 2015, this paper studies the dynamic changes of urban residents' savings and China's GDP. It is concluded that there is a correlation between the economic changes and the savings of urban residents. Through the cointegration analysis of urban residents' savings and GDP, this paper finds that GDP and urban residents' savings are in a long-term equilibrium state. Through the research, it is found that the increase of GDP will promote the increase of urban residents' savings, that is, China's economic growth can promote the increase of urban residents' savings; In addition, the change of GDP will quickly reflect the change of urban residents' savings, indicating that its lag is short. Since only time series data are involved in this part, the results of the analysis may ignore some factors and cause large errors. Therefore, the second part uses panel data modeling to determine the relationship between them. In the second part, the panel model is established based on the panel data of 31 regions in China from 2003 to 2015 to study the impact of the change of urban residents' savings on our economy. Firstly, the form of panel model is determined by checking and judging, and the correlation between urban residents' savings and GDP is analyzed by establishing panel model. Secondly, the whole country is divided into three economic zones. The panel model is established for the eastern, central and western regions, and the relationship between the savings of urban residents and GDP in the three regions is obtained by comparison and analysis. Finally, through the comparative analysis, we get some conclusions. According to the conclusion of the study, the following suggestions are put forward to promote the rational increase of urban residents' savings: 1. Reduce regional economic gap and maintain rational and stable development; 2. Raise the income of urban residents; 3. To stabilize market economic activities and enhance residents' confidence in investment; 4. Scientific urbanization will be carried out.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124;F126.1

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