石油价格冲击对加纳宏观经济的影响

发布时间：2018-11-28 16:12

【摘要】：自上世纪七十年代第一次石油价格冲击以来,石油价格对宏观经济活动的的影响吸引了大量的关注。最初,许多研究认为,石油价格冲击和GDP之间存在着显著的负向关系,但最近的实证研究表明石油价格冲击与宏观经济变量之间的关系呈现递减趋势。现有文献的一个关键特征是,它主要研究那些作为发达国家的石油进口国。对属于发展中国家的石油进口国来说,可能得出与发达国家不同的结论,而这是可以通过实证研究来确认的。因此,我的研究采用限制VAR模型和格兰杰因果检验来考察石油价格冲击对加纳宏观经济的影响,而加纳是一个属于发展中国家的石油进口国。研究结果显示,石油价格冲击对加纳的产出和经济活动有显著的负面影响。我还采用了非线性的模型设定来解释石油价格冲击影响的不对称性。我发现负面的油价冲击会抑制经济增长,而正面的油价冲击会促进经济增长,增加产出。格兰杰因果关系检验揭示了石油价格冲击和GDP之间存在单向的因果关系。我的结果表明石油价格和加纳的宏观经济变量间存在非线性关系,且石油价格的影响不存在不对称性。然而,这项研究也承认,从数值比例上来说,石油价格冲击的影响极小,但这也不代表石油价格冲击的影响在加纳可以被忽略不计。
[Abstract]:Since the first oil price shock in the 1970s, the impact of oil prices on macroeconomic activity has attracted a lot of attention. Initially, many studies suggest that there is a significant negative relationship between oil price shocks and GDP, but recent empirical studies show that the relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic variables is decreasing. A key feature of existing literature is that it focuses on oil importing countries that are developed countries. For oil-importing countries that belong to developing countries, different conclusions may be drawn from developed countries, which can be confirmed by empirical research. Therefore, my study uses the restricted VAR model and Granger causality test to examine the impact of oil price shocks on Ghana's macro-economy, which is an oil-importing country belonging to developing countries. The results show that oil price shocks have a significant negative impact on Ghana's output and economic activity. I also use nonlinear modeling to explain the asymmetry of oil price shocks. I found that negative oil shocks dampen economic growth, while positive oil shocks boost economic growth and increase output. Granger causality test reveals a one-way causal relationship between oil price shocks and GDP. My results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomic variables in Ghana, and there is no asymmetry in the influence of oil prices. However, the study also acknowledges that the impact of oil price shocks in numerical terms is minimal, but that does not mean that the impact of oil price shocks can be ignored in Ghana.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F144.5;F764.1

【共引文献】