黔江区洪涝灾害致贫风险研究

发布时间：2018-12-14 01:17

【摘要】：随着我国对贫困治理力度的加大,我国贫困人口数量大幅下降。但由于各类自然灾害的影响,导致一些地区人民遭受巨大的损失,从而陷入贫困的境地,使得“因灾致贫”的问题成为治理贫困所不可避免的障碍。本文选择重庆市黔江区作为研究区,以黔江区各自然村作为研究对象,在归纳总结国内外关于因灾致贫研究成果的基础上,基于地理信息系统技术、模糊数学和社会统计的理论和方法,在村级尺度上研究洪涝灾害风险向贫困风险的转移程度。本文的主要研究内容包括以下三个方面：首先分析了洪涝灾害的成灾机理,在此基础上,通过建立软层次模型,从收入、资产和福利三个维度分析洪涝灾害对当地造成的影响。分析结果表明,洪涝灾害对黔江当地的收入、资产和福利的影响机制存在各自特点,但都会造成贫困的加深。其次是对洪涝风险向贫困风险转移的定量化,在洪涝对贫困影响模式的基础上,通过对收入、资产、和福利指标的空间化,结合根据历史数据拟合的灾害损失率,分别研究洪涝风险向三个维度的转移程度。通过风险转移前后结果的对比,不同风险级别下三个维度转移的结果也不同。最后将这三个维度的风险进行综合。在收入、资产和福利三个维度风险定量化的基础上,分别测算了单维度下的贫困发生率。并依据多维贫困理论,将这三个维度进行综合测算,得出多维贫困发生率,综合评价洪涝风险向贫困风险的转移程度。结果表明,洪涝灾害风险高发区也是贫困较为严重的地区。
[Abstract]:With the increase of poverty control in our country, the number of poor population in our country has dropped dramatically. However, due to the influence of all kinds of natural disasters, people in some areas suffer huge losses, thus they fall into poverty, and the problem of "poverty caused by disasters" becomes an inevitable obstacle to the treatment of poverty. In this paper, Qianjiang District of Chongqing City is chosen as the research area, and the natural villages of Qianjiang District are chosen as the research objects. On the basis of summing up the research results of poverty caused by disasters at home and abroad, this paper bases on GIS technology. The theory and method of fuzzy mathematics and social statistics are used to study the transferring degree of flood disaster risk to poverty risk on village scale. The main contents of this paper include the following three aspects: firstly, the mechanism of flood disaster is analyzed. The three dimensions of assets and welfare are used to analyze the local impact of flood and waterlogging disaster. The results show that the influence mechanism of flood disaster on local income, assets and welfare of Qianjiang River has its own characteristics, but all of them will lead to the deepening of poverty. The second is the quantification of the transfer of flood risk to poverty risk. On the basis of the impact model of flood and waterlogging on poverty, through the spatialization of income, assets, and welfare indicators, combined with the disaster loss rate fitted according to historical data, The degree of flood risk transferring to three dimensions was studied separately. By comparing the results before and after the risk transfer, the results of the three dimensions are different under different risk levels. Finally, the risk of these three dimensions is synthesized. On the basis of risk quantification of income, assets and welfare, the incidence of poverty in single dimension is calculated. According to the theory of multidimensional poverty, the three dimensions are comprehensively calculated, the incidence of multi-dimensional poverty is obtained, and the degree of transferring flood risk to poverty risk is comprehensively evaluated. The results show that the area with high risk of flood and waterlogging is also a poor area.
【学位授予单位】：首都师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.7;P426.616

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