浙江省产业结构演变与电力消费变动关系研究
发布时间：2018-12-14 03:23
【摘要】：电力是最重要的二次能源，是经济发展的动力，保持电力的稳定供应与合理需求不论是对一个国家还是对地方政府均是十分重要。改革开放以来浙江工业产值占GDP比重平均值为43.96%，工业耗电量占全社会耗电量比重为75%以上，一直以来是耗电大省，2011年全省电力消费量为3116.91亿千瓦时。近年来多次发生大范围电荒，全省的经济生产与人民生活均受到严重的影响，除去电力体制上的不完善和电源建设滞后等问题，浙江省自身的用电效率不高、产业结构不合理是其主要原因。本文研究的问题就是浙江省的产业结构演变与电力消费变动之间的关系，通过灰色关联分析、电力强度的因素分解分析、工业行业内部用电分析等方法来研究如何协调浙江省产业结构与电力消费两者之间的关系。 先测算出1995-2011年浙江工业化综合指数，对照相应标准，得出1995-1996处于工业化初期，2000-2006处于工业化中期，，2007-2011处于工业化后期。然后用图表表示出不同阶段下，浙江经济总量与电力消费总量之间的关系，分析不同阶段浙江省总的用电特点与不同阶段分产业电力消耗情况。紧接着着重研究浙江工业经济与工业用电量之间的关系，对1987-2011年两变量的时间序列运用了格兰杰因果关系检验，结果发现工业经济增长促进了全社会经济总量的增长，带来电力的大量消费，然而电力消费却不能导致工业经济的增长。最后对浙江省工业企业分行业用电量与用电效率进行测算排名，选取2011年产值为1000亿以上的18个行业进行研究，其产值占全省工业总产值比重为87%，得出其中产值低、电耗高且用电效率低的行业如：造纸业和非金属矿物制造业等，应该逐步淘汰。其中，对高耗能行业进行差别电价政策效果明显，需要加强监督和实施力度。 分总量和效率两大方面研究产业结构和电力消费关系，对浙江省终端用电量与全社会用电总量进行灰色关联度分析，经过计算得到关联度大小依次排序为工业，建筑业，交通运输、仓储邮政业，居民生活消费，其他消费终端，批发零售业和住宿餐饮业和农林牧渔水利业，关联度大表明在1995-2011年间变动态势与总的电力消费量变动态势比较接近，为相应行业节电和结构调整提供理论依据。另一个重要变量是用电效率，这里用电力消费强度进行分析，首先测算出1995-2011年间的强度和相邻两年强度变化，然后运用指数对数平均法对其变化的部分进行因素分解，分解因素分为结构变量和产业内部用电效率变量。最终发现决定强度上升或下降的主要因素是产业内部用电效率，所以得出结论要想降低浙江省电力消费强度从而提高用电效率来节电的话，必须降低三次产业的电力消费强度，提高各产业内部的高科技含量，提高电力的使用效率。 文章的最后对浙江的用电总量进行了预测，选取影响浙江用电量的包括经济总量、电价、产业结构变动、用电效率和人口变动等五个因素，建立浙江省的用电需求模型对“十二五”和“十三五”期间的用电量进行预测，其中主要采用协整检验理论和短期误差修正模型。最后发现用电量的增长率逐年降低，并且低于经济总量的增长率，主要原因可以通过用电效率上升、产业结构调整和电价上涨来解释。 通过全文的实证和理论探究，可以得出结论要解决目前浙江省用电紧张问题必须加快浙江省的产业结构调整，淘汰那些耗电高产值低的工业行业，在保证经济合理增长的前提下发展科技含量高的新兴产业，使得全省的产业结构与电力消费保持一个相对稳定的关系。预测模型结果说明随着用电效率提高和经济增长的放缓，以及产业结构的逐渐合理，用电量的增长率是逐渐降低的，相关的预测数据对省电力管理部门在今后若干年份处理电力供需矛盾时，提供一定的实用价值。
[Abstract]:Electricity is the most important secondary energy, it is the power of economic development, and the stable supply and reasonable demand of maintaining power are important to a country or to the local government. Since the reform and opening-up, the industrial output value of Zhejiang accounts for 43. 96% of the total GDP, and the industrial power consumption accounts for more than 75% of the total social power consumption, and has always been the power-consuming province. In 2011, the consumption of electricity in the whole province was 3116. 91 billion kilowatt-hours. In recent years, the economic production and the people's life of the whole province have been seriously affected, and the problems such as the imperfect power system and the lag of power construction are removed, and the power utilization efficiency of the province is not high, and the irrational industrial structure is the main reason. The problem of this paper is the relationship between the evolution of the industrial structure and the change of power consumption in Zhejiang province, and the analysis of the factors of the power intensity through the grey correlation analysis. The paper studies how to coordinate the relationship between the industrial structure of Zhejiang and the consumption of electricity. First, the comprehensive index of Zhejiang industrialization in 1995-2011 and the corresponding standard are calculated, and it is concluded that in the early period of industrialization in 1995-1996, the period 2000-2006 was in the middle of industrialization, and after the industrialization of 2007-2011, The relationship between the total amount of Zhejiang's economy and the total amount of electricity consumption in different stages is then represented by the chart, and the total power consumption of Zhejiang province and the power consumption of different phases are analyzed in different stages. According to the relationship between the industrial economy and the industrial electricity consumption of Zhejiang, the Granger causality test was applied to the time series of the two variables in 1987 to 2011, and the result found that the growth of the industrial economy promoted the growth of the total social economy, and brought about a large amount of power. However, the consumption of electricity can not lead to the increase of the industrial economy In the end, the electricity consumption and power utilization efficiency of the industrial enterprises in Zhejiang are ranked, and 18 industries with output value of more than 10 billion yuan in 2011 are selected to study, and the output value of the industry accounts for 87% of the total industrial output value of the whole province, and the industries in which the output value is low, the power consumption is high, and the power consumption efficiency is low is obtained. such as the paper industry and the non-metallic mineral manufacturing industry, etc., should be gradually At the same time, the effect of the differential electricity price policy on the high-energy consumption industry is obvious, and it is necessary to strengthen the supervision and implementation force. The relationship between the industrial structure and the power consumption is studied in terms of the total quantity and the efficiency, and the grey correlation degree analysis is carried out on the electricity consumption of the terminal of the Zhejiang Province and the total electricity consumption of the whole society, and the correlation degree is sequentially sorted into the industry, the construction industry, the transportation and the storage by the calculation. Postal industry, residents' living consumption, other consumer terminals, wholesale and retail and accommodation catering and farming and fishery water conservancy, the degree of association shows that the change trend in 1995-2011 is close to that of the total power consumption, and provides a basis for the electricity-saving and structural adjustment of the corresponding industries. On the basis of the theory, another important variable is the efficiency of electric power. The power consumption intensity is analyzed. First, the intensity and the adjacent two-year strength change between 1995 and 2011 are calculated, and then the part of the change is made by the exponential logarithmic average method. The decomposition of the elements and the decomposition factors are divided into the structural variables and the internal power consumption of the industry As a result, it is concluded that the main factors that determine the rise or fall of electric power in Zhejiang are the internal power utilization efficiency of the industry, so it is concluded that the electric power consumption of the third industry must be reduced if the power consumption intensity of the province is reduced so as to improve the power utilization efficiency. The cost is increased, the high-tech content in each industry is improved, and the electric power is improved. The paper forecasts the total amount of electricity used in Zhejiang, and selects the amount of electricity used in Zhejiang, including the economic total, the price of electricity, the change of the industrial structure, the efficiency of electricity and the change of the population. Based on five factors, the electricity consumption demand model of Zhejiang province is established to forecast the electricity consumption during the 鈥
本文编号：2377823
[Abstract]:Electricity is the most important secondary energy, it is the power of economic development, and the stable supply and reasonable demand of maintaining power are important to a country or to the local government. Since the reform and opening-up, the industrial output value of Zhejiang accounts for 43. 96% of the total GDP, and the industrial power consumption accounts for more than 75% of the total social power consumption, and has always been the power-consuming province. In 2011, the consumption of electricity in the whole province was 3116. 91 billion kilowatt-hours. In recent years, the economic production and the people's life of the whole province have been seriously affected, and the problems such as the imperfect power system and the lag of power construction are removed, and the power utilization efficiency of the province is not high, and the irrational industrial structure is the main reason. The problem of this paper is the relationship between the evolution of the industrial structure and the change of power consumption in Zhejiang province, and the analysis of the factors of the power intensity through the grey correlation analysis. The paper studies how to coordinate the relationship between the industrial structure of Zhejiang and the consumption of electricity. First, the comprehensive index of Zhejiang industrialization in 1995-2011 and the corresponding standard are calculated, and it is concluded that in the early period of industrialization in 1995-1996, the period 2000-2006 was in the middle of industrialization, and after the industrialization of 2007-2011, The relationship between the total amount of Zhejiang's economy and the total amount of electricity consumption in different stages is then represented by the chart, and the total power consumption of Zhejiang province and the power consumption of different phases are analyzed in different stages. According to the relationship between the industrial economy and the industrial electricity consumption of Zhejiang, the Granger causality test was applied to the time series of the two variables in 1987 to 2011, and the result found that the growth of the industrial economy promoted the growth of the total social economy, and brought about a large amount of power. However, the consumption of electricity can not lead to the increase of the industrial economy In the end, the electricity consumption and power utilization efficiency of the industrial enterprises in Zhejiang are ranked, and 18 industries with output value of more than 10 billion yuan in 2011 are selected to study, and the output value of the industry accounts for 87% of the total industrial output value of the whole province, and the industries in which the output value is low, the power consumption is high, and the power consumption efficiency is low is obtained. such as the paper industry and the non-metallic mineral manufacturing industry, etc., should be gradually At the same time, the effect of the differential electricity price policy on the high-energy consumption industry is obvious, and it is necessary to strengthen the supervision and implementation force. The relationship between the industrial structure and the power consumption is studied in terms of the total quantity and the efficiency, and the grey correlation degree analysis is carried out on the electricity consumption of the terminal of the Zhejiang Province and the total electricity consumption of the whole society, and the correlation degree is sequentially sorted into the industry, the construction industry, the transportation and the storage by the calculation. Postal industry, residents' living consumption, other consumer terminals, wholesale and retail and accommodation catering and farming and fishery water conservancy, the degree of association shows that the change trend in 1995-2011 is close to that of the total power consumption, and provides a basis for the electricity-saving and structural adjustment of the corresponding industries. On the basis of the theory, another important variable is the efficiency of electric power. The power consumption intensity is analyzed. First, the intensity and the adjacent two-year strength change between 1995 and 2011 are calculated, and then the part of the change is made by the exponential logarithmic average method. The decomposition of the elements and the decomposition factors are divided into the structural variables and the internal power consumption of the industry As a result, it is concluded that the main factors that determine the rise or fall of electric power in Zhejiang are the internal power utilization efficiency of the industry, so it is concluded that the electric power consumption of the third industry must be reduced if the power consumption intensity of the province is reduced so as to improve the power utilization efficiency. The cost is increased, the high-tech content in each industry is improved, and the electric power is improved. The paper forecasts the total amount of electricity used in Zhejiang, and selects the amount of electricity used in Zhejiang, including the economic total, the price of electricity, the change of the industrial structure, the efficiency of electricity and the change of the population. Based on five factors, the electricity consumption demand model of Zhejiang province is established to forecast the electricity consumption during the 鈥
本文编号：2377823
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