河北省产业结构演进与低碳经济发展实证研究

发布时间：2018-12-14 09:16

【摘要】：近年来随着经济的高速发展，发展低碳经济不仅是全球各国应对气候持续恶化的共同策略，也直接关系到我国经济的平稳持续高速发展。大气中二氧化碳排放量的减少，不仅可以减少经济发展给环境带来的负面效应，还可以增强本国的可持续发展能力。产业结构不合理，将会造成产业间单位产出能耗强度的差异，因此，需要通过产业结构的调整减少碳排放量。从根本上转变经济发展方式，逐步构建低碳的产业结构和消费结构，全面推进低碳经济社会的创建。本文首先系统梳理了产业结构的相关理论，总结了河北省在经济发展过程中产业结构演化变动特点。在相关理论分析的基础上，对河北省在工业化进程中产业结构的演变轨迹、能源消费以及碳排放的特征进行了分析。分析表明，河北省以第二产业为主的产业结构模式短时期内不会发生变化。但新技术的应用将促进产业结构的优化升级，减少化石能源的消费量。同时，以服务业为主的第三产业的迅速发展，会降低第三产业能耗强度，尽管第三产业的发展基础相对薄弱，但提升空间较大，第三产业的崛起将提升节能降碳空间，是发展低碳经济、实现可持续发展目标的必经之路。通过构建“产业结构演化-能源消费强度关联”和“产业结构演化-碳排放关联”两个基本模型，分析河北省及全国在产业结构演进过程中能源消费强度和二氧化碳排放强度变化的相互关系及作用，分析表明，随着产业结构的演进，河北省能源消费强度在逐年下降，产业结构调整缓慢，能源消费强度表现出缓慢下降效应，产业结构调整加快，能源消费强度表现出增速下降效应。在整个产业结构演进过程中二氧化碳排放强度呈现出逐年下降的趋势。运用设立基准情景、参考情景、优化情景三个情景分析河北省在不同经济发展速度下，产业结构变动带来的降碳潜力。研究发现，虽然河北省产业结构演进的起点低，但只要逐步摆脱对高耗能行业的高度依赖，大力发展第三产业，产业结构演进所带来的结构性降碳潜力巨大，产业结构性优化对实现降碳目标的贡献率更是远高于全国。基于上述分析，，本文最后根据河北省产业结构演进中节能降碳的潜力，有针对地提出了通过调整和优化产业结构，尽快实现低碳经济发展对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy in recent years, the development of low-carbon economy is not only the common strategy of global countries to cope with the continuous deterioration of climate, but also directly related to the steady and sustained rapid development of China's economy. The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere can not only reduce the negative effects of economic development on the environment, but also enhance the sustainable development capacity of our country. The unreasonable industrial structure will result in the difference of energy consumption intensity per unit output among industries. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions through the adjustment of industrial structure. We should fundamentally change the mode of economic development, build a low-carbon industrial structure and consumption structure step by step, and promote the establishment of a low-carbon economic society in an all-round way. Firstly, this paper systematically combs the relevant theories of industrial structure and summarizes the characteristics of the evolution of industrial structure in the process of economic development in Hebei Province. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper analyzes the evolution of industrial structure, energy consumption and carbon emission in Hebei Province in the process of industrialization. The analysis shows that the industrial structure model of Hebei Province, which is mainly secondary industry, will not change in a short period of time. But the application of new technology will promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and reduce the consumption of fossil energy. At the same time, the rapid development of the tertiary industry, which is dominated by the service industry, will reduce the energy intensity of the tertiary industry. Although the development basis of the tertiary industry is relatively weak, the promotion space is large, and the rise of the tertiary industry will enhance the energy saving and carbon reduction space. It is the only way to develop low-carbon economy and realize the goal of sustainable development. By constructing two basic models of "industrial structure evolvement-energy consumption intensity correlation" and "industrial structure evolvement-carbon emission correlation", This paper analyzes the relationship between energy consumption intensity and carbon dioxide emission intensity in Hebei Province and the whole country in the process of industrial structure evolution. The analysis shows that the energy consumption intensity of Hebei Province decreases year by year with the evolution of industrial structure. The industrial structure adjustment is slow, the energy consumption intensity shows the slow decline effect, the industrial structure adjustment accelerates, the energy consumption intensity shows the growth rate decline effect. In the process of industrial structure evolution, the intensity of carbon dioxide emission is decreasing year by year. This paper analyzes the potential of carbon reduction brought by the change of industrial structure in Hebei Province under different economic development speed by using three scenarios of setting up benchmark scenario, reference scenario and optimizing scenario. It is found that although the starting point of industrial structure evolution in Hebei Province is low, as long as we gradually get rid of the high dependence on energy-consuming industries and vigorously develop the tertiary industry, the structural carbon reduction potential brought about by the evolution of industrial structure is huge. The contribution rate of industrial structural optimization to the realization of carbon reduction target is much higher than that of the whole country. Based on the above analysis, according to the potential of energy saving and carbon reduction in the evolution of industrial structure in Hebei Province, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to realize the development of low-carbon economy as soon as possible by adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄经济学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F124.5

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