浙江省对外经济开放度对产业结构影响的研究
发布时间：2018-12-17 00:57
【摘要】：在全球经济一体化与国际产业转移的大背景下,浙江省位于中国对外经济开放的前沿地区,其产业结构也必将从初级向高级化的方向发展。对外经济开放对产业结构调整的重要作用也是目前的现实需求,在经济发展中起到至关重要的作用。 本文研究浙江省对外经济开放度与产业结构的相关关系及其影响,在总结现有经典理论与研究成果的基础之上,研究浙江省对外经济的现状与产业结构的具体组成,并且分析对外经济开放度对产业结构优化的影响,并通过统计分析与实证分析的方法构建浙江省对外经济开放度与产业结构优化度两个综合性指标进行多方面的影响效应分析。 研究结果表明,浙江省对外贸易开放度对于对外经济开放度的影响最大,且浙江省对外经济开放度易受世界经济波动的影响。运用因子分析法进行产业结构内部分析以及求得浙江省产业结构优化度表明,第一产业内部四大行业之间存在显著的正相关性,第二产业内部的工业与建筑业两大行业不存在显著的相关性,第三产业内部的交通运输、仓储和邮政业与批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业存在一定程度的正相关性。不仅如此,三大产业的不同行业之间也存在一定程度的相关性。其中,农林渔业与工业的相关性最小,几乎不存相关性,但牧业与工业存在着一定程度的负相关；农林渔牧业与建筑业之间均存在负相关关系；农林渔牧业与交通运输、仓储和邮政业,批发、零售业和住宿业存在一定程度的正相关关系,与其他三个服务业行业之间存在着负相关关系。 通过构建向量自回归模型(VAR)、脉冲效应、向量误差修正(VEC)模型等实证分析表明,浙江省对外经济开放度对产业结构的影响,在短期内不存在或者较弱,在中长期内存在正向影响。产业结构的优化在短期内存在内生优化的惯性,但在中长期该内生优化趋势不存在。若对外经济开放度受到一个外部冲击,则会给产业结构的优化带来较为明显的负向作用,在短期内会引起产业结构的恶化,但长期影响并不明显。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global economic integration and international industrial transfer, Zhejiang Province is located in the frontier area of China's foreign economic opening, and its industrial structure will certainly develop from the primary level to the higher level. The foreign economic opening plays an important role in the adjustment of industrial structure and plays a vital role in the economic development. This paper studies the relationship between foreign economic openness and industrial structure of Zhejiang Province and its influence. On the basis of summarizing the existing classical theories and research results, this paper studies the current situation of Zhejiang's foreign economy and the specific composition of its industrial structure. It also analyzes the influence of foreign economic openness on industrial structure optimization, and constructs two comprehensive indexes of Zhejiang province, namely, external economic openness and industrial structure optimization, through statistical analysis and empirical analysis. The results show that the degree of foreign trade openness of Zhejiang Province has the greatest influence on the degree of foreign economic openness, and the degree of foreign economic openness of Zhejiang Province is vulnerable to the fluctuation of the world economy. The internal analysis of industrial structure by factor analysis and the optimization degree of industrial structure in Zhejiang Province show that there is a significant positive correlation among the four major industries within the primary industry. There is no significant correlation between the industry and the construction industry in the secondary industry, but there is a positive correlation between the transportation, storage and post industry in the tertiary industry and the wholesale, retail and catering industries to a certain extent. Not only that, the three major industries between different industries also have a certain degree of correlation. Among them, the correlation between agriculture, forestry, fishery and industry is the least, almost no correlation exists, but there is a certain degree of negative correlation between animal husbandry and industry, and between agriculture, forestry, fishery and industry, there is a negative correlation between agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry and construction industry. There is a positive correlation between agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry and transportation, storage and post, wholesale, retail and accommodation, and a negative correlation between agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry and the other three service industries. By constructing vector autoregressive model (VAR), pulse effect, vector error correction (VEC) model and other empirical analysis, it is shown that the impact of Zhejiang's external economic openness on industrial structure does not exist or is weak in the short term. There is a positive effect in the medium and long term. The industrial structure optimization has the inertia of endogenous optimization in the short term, but it does not exist in the medium and long term. If the external economic openness is affected by an external shock, it will bring more obvious negative effect to the optimization of industrial structure, and will cause the deterioration of industrial structure in the short term, but the long-term impact is not obvious.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.8;F127
本文编号：2383355
[Abstract]:Under the background of global economic integration and international industrial transfer, Zhejiang Province is located in the frontier area of China's foreign economic opening, and its industrial structure will certainly develop from the primary level to the higher level. The foreign economic opening plays an important role in the adjustment of industrial structure and plays a vital role in the economic development. This paper studies the relationship between foreign economic openness and industrial structure of Zhejiang Province and its influence. On the basis of summarizing the existing classical theories and research results, this paper studies the current situation of Zhejiang's foreign economy and the specific composition of its industrial structure. It also analyzes the influence of foreign economic openness on industrial structure optimization, and constructs two comprehensive indexes of Zhejiang province, namely, external economic openness and industrial structure optimization, through statistical analysis and empirical analysis. The results show that the degree of foreign trade openness of Zhejiang Province has the greatest influence on the degree of foreign economic openness, and the degree of foreign economic openness of Zhejiang Province is vulnerable to the fluctuation of the world economy. The internal analysis of industrial structure by factor analysis and the optimization degree of industrial structure in Zhejiang Province show that there is a significant positive correlation among the four major industries within the primary industry. There is no significant correlation between the industry and the construction industry in the secondary industry, but there is a positive correlation between the transportation, storage and post industry in the tertiary industry and the wholesale, retail and catering industries to a certain extent. Not only that, the three major industries between different industries also have a certain degree of correlation. Among them, the correlation between agriculture, forestry, fishery and industry is the least, almost no correlation exists, but there is a certain degree of negative correlation between animal husbandry and industry, and between agriculture, forestry, fishery and industry, there is a negative correlation between agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry and construction industry. There is a positive correlation between agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry and transportation, storage and post, wholesale, retail and accommodation, and a negative correlation between agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry and the other three service industries. By constructing vector autoregressive model (VAR), pulse effect, vector error correction (VEC) model and other empirical analysis, it is shown that the impact of Zhejiang's external economic openness on industrial structure does not exist or is weak in the short term. There is a positive effect in the medium and long term. The industrial structure optimization has the inertia of endogenous optimization in the short term, but it does not exist in the medium and long term. If the external economic openness is affected by an external shock, it will bring more obvious negative effect to the optimization of industrial structure, and will cause the deterioration of industrial structure in the short term, but the long-term impact is not obvious.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.8;F127
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