中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家直接投资的出口贸易效应研究
发布时间：2018-12-16 22:40
【摘要】：受当前国际经济整体低迷影响,我国出口贸易增速放缓,2015年甚至出现出口规模下降情况。国内来看,“新常态”下内需不足、产能过剩等问题进一步显现,因此出口增长新动力变得极为重要。作为参与经济全球化的两种方式,直接投资和出口贸易的关系一直是学术界的研究热点。随着丝绸之路经济带战略的实施,中国对其沿线国家直接投资和货物出口额均出现快速上涨。那么二者之间是否存在一定的关系?前者的增长对后者是否产生了影响?如果有,出口贸易又有多大程度是由中国对其直接投资拉动所致?进一步地,中国对丝路沿线国家的直接投资是否又间接提升了我国的产业结构?未来,战略的推进势必引起中国对丝路沿线国家直接投资和出口贸易继续增长,因此研究直接投资对出口贸易的整体和国别效应显得极为有价值。本文首先对对外直接投资的出口贸易效应展开理论分析,其次对中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家直接投资和出口贸易现状进行梳理总结。再次在实证部分,本文选取整个丝绸之路经济带和沿线八国,利用2005—2015年中国对其直接投资、货物总出口和资本技术密集型产品出口等数据分别建立九个时间序列以考察中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家直接投资的出口贸易效应,得出结论如下:第一,中国对丝路沿线国家直接投资的出口规模效应(1)表现为贸易创造;第二,中国对丝路沿线国家直接投资对我国出口贸易结构具有改善作用;第三,中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家直接投资的整体出口贸易效应(2)大于国别出口贸易效应;第四,我国对丝路沿线国家直接投资的出口贸易效应具有国别差异,出口规模效应由高到低依次是:阿联酋、伊朗、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、印度、沙特、土耳其、哈萨克斯坦;出口结构改善作用由大到小依次是:俄罗斯、阿联酋、沙特、伊朗、哈萨克斯坦、印度、巴基斯坦、土耳其;第五,中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家直接投资无论从整体还是国别上来看,出口结构效应普遍大于出口规模效应。虽然我国对丝路沿线国家直接投资对我国的出口贸易效应表现为“正”,但投资的拉动作用还相对较小,这无疑与我国对其直接投资存量基数较小有关。未来随着丝绸之路经济带战略的推进,我国对其直接投资必进一步增长,其对出口贸易的拉动效应也将有所提升。
[Abstract]:Affected by the current international economic downturn, China's export trade growth slowed down, and even in 2015 export scale declined. At home, problems such as insufficient domestic demand and overcapacity in the "new normal" are becoming more and more important, so new drivers of export growth are becoming extremely important. As two ways to participate in economic globalization, the relationship between direct investment and export trade has always been a hot topic in academic circles. With the implementation of the Silk Road economic belt strategy, China's direct investment and exports to the countries along the Silk Road have increased rapidly. Is there a certain relationship between the two? Does the growth of the former have an impact on the latter? If so, to what extent is export trade driven by China's direct investment in it? Further, does China's direct investment in the countries along the Silk Road indirectly enhance the industrial structure of our country? In the future, the promotion of the strategy will inevitably cause China's direct investment and export trade to continue to increase along the Silk Road, so it is of great value to study the overall and country-specific effects of direct investment on export trade. This paper firstly analyzes the export trade effect of FDI, and then summarizes the current situation of China's direct investment and export trade in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. Again, in the empirical part, this paper selects the entire Silk Road economic belt and the eight countries along the Silk Road, and uses China's direct investment in it from 2005 to 2015. Data on total exports of goods and exports of capital-technology-intensive products have been established in nine time series to examine the export trade effects of China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road economic belt. The conclusions are as follows: first, Export scale effect of China's Direct Investment to countries along Silk Road (1): trade creation; Second, China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road can improve China's export trade structure, third, the overall export trade effect of China's direct investment in the countries along the Silk Road economic belt (2) is greater than the national export trade effect. Fourth, the export trade effect of China's direct investment to the countries along the Silk Road is different from country to country, the export scale effect is in order from high to low: UAE, Iran, Russia, Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kazakhstan; The improvement of export structure is from big to small: Russia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kazakhstan, India, Pakistan, Turkey; Fifth, China's direct investment in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is generally greater than that of the export scale in terms of overall and country-specific effects. Although China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road has a "positive" effect on China's export trade, the pull effect of investment is relatively small, which is undoubtedly related to the small stock base of China's direct investment. With the advancement of the Silk Road economic belt strategy, China's direct investment in the Silk Road will be further increased, and its effect on export trade will also be enhanced.
【学位授予单位】：兰州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125;F752.62
本文编号：2383160
[Abstract]:Affected by the current international economic downturn, China's export trade growth slowed down, and even in 2015 export scale declined. At home, problems such as insufficient domestic demand and overcapacity in the "new normal" are becoming more and more important, so new drivers of export growth are becoming extremely important. As two ways to participate in economic globalization, the relationship between direct investment and export trade has always been a hot topic in academic circles. With the implementation of the Silk Road economic belt strategy, China's direct investment and exports to the countries along the Silk Road have increased rapidly. Is there a certain relationship between the two? Does the growth of the former have an impact on the latter? If so, to what extent is export trade driven by China's direct investment in it? Further, does China's direct investment in the countries along the Silk Road indirectly enhance the industrial structure of our country? In the future, the promotion of the strategy will inevitably cause China's direct investment and export trade to continue to increase along the Silk Road, so it is of great value to study the overall and country-specific effects of direct investment on export trade. This paper firstly analyzes the export trade effect of FDI, and then summarizes the current situation of China's direct investment and export trade in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. Again, in the empirical part, this paper selects the entire Silk Road economic belt and the eight countries along the Silk Road, and uses China's direct investment in it from 2005 to 2015. Data on total exports of goods and exports of capital-technology-intensive products have been established in nine time series to examine the export trade effects of China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road economic belt. The conclusions are as follows: first, Export scale effect of China's Direct Investment to countries along Silk Road (1): trade creation; Second, China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road can improve China's export trade structure, third, the overall export trade effect of China's direct investment in the countries along the Silk Road economic belt (2) is greater than the national export trade effect. Fourth, the export trade effect of China's direct investment to the countries along the Silk Road is different from country to country, the export scale effect is in order from high to low: UAE, Iran, Russia, Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kazakhstan; The improvement of export structure is from big to small: Russia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kazakhstan, India, Pakistan, Turkey; Fifth, China's direct investment in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is generally greater than that of the export scale in terms of overall and country-specific effects. Although China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road has a "positive" effect on China's export trade, the pull effect of investment is relatively small, which is undoubtedly related to the small stock base of China's direct investment. With the advancement of the Silk Road economic belt strategy, China's direct investment in the Silk Road will be further increased, and its effect on export trade will also be enhanced.
【学位授予单位】：兰州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125;F752.62
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