中油化建公司乌兹别克斯坦双聚项目投资风险控制研究
发布时间：2019-01-01 10:11
【摘要】：2013年习近平主席对中亚四国进行国事访问，签署了石油天然气等领域的重大合作文件，标志着我国“走出去”的战略将进一步在中亚地区实施。为我国工程承包商开拓中亚市场提供了良好的机遇，中亚国际工程项目数量必将迅速增加。国际工程项目具有很大的不确定性，包含众多风险因素，这些因素又相互联系，相互影响，相互转换，错综复杂的交织在一起。面对新环境，公司应做好应对新的挑战，把风险控制作为工程项目管理的重要内容。 本文为乌兹别克斯坦双聚项目的投资风险控制提供一些理论分析和建议，增强乌兹别克斯坦双聚项目投资风险控制能力和项目人员的投资风险控制意识。面对风险，保持冷静和清醒的头脑，坚持实事求是的态度，使用科学方法和手段，置风险于预料之中，运筹帷幄，慎重防范及应对严重风险，掌控好一般风险，善于利用风险获得经济效益，做风险的驾驭者。 本文结合乌兹别克斯坦国情和我公司的实际状况，从分包商角度，运用层次分析法、模糊层次综合评价法，识别、分析、评价了中油化建公司乌兹别克斯坦双聚项目的投资风险。将项目的投资风险分为系统风险和非系统风险，系统风险从PEST角度进行较全面识别，非系统风险从横向价值链管理角度和纵向项目实施过程进行重点识别，针对识别的风险因素，提出了各种风险的控制措施，重在降低项目投资风险，目在提高经济效益。 从我国工程企业的竞争实力出发，以国际工程项目全面风险控制思想为指导，结合中油化建公司乌兹别克斯坦双聚项目，详细分析了分包商的系统风险和非系统风险，运用调查和专家打分识别出项目的风险因素，得到了中亚地区国际承包工程项目风险层次图，建立了合理全面的国际工程投资风险评价体系，利用MATLAB软件求出风险因素的权重，采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对项目风险进行评价，求得整个项目投资风险综合评价等级。 提高中亚地区工程项目的投标竞价能力，本文对中亚地区特殊的政治背景、经济环境以及社会人文进行了大量的调研，并对当地的市场行情有所了解，给公司的后续投标提供适当的建议和参考。 本文从分包商的角度，，为开发中亚国际工程承包商提供了一个科学风险控制的框架，进行投资风险的分析评估，并针对各个风险提出了相应的防范及应对措施。帮助承包商采用科学的管理手段，最大程度地降低风险，创造出良好的经济效益。
[Abstract]:In 2013, President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to four Central Asian countries and signed major cooperation documents in areas such as oil and natural gas, marking the further implementation of China's "going out" strategy in Central Asia. It provides a good opportunity for Chinese engineering contractors to open up the market in Central Asia, and the number of international projects in Central Asia will increase rapidly. International engineering projects have a lot of uncertainty, including many risk factors, these factors are interrelated, mutual influence, mutual transformation, intricate intertwined. Facing the new environment, the company should deal with the new challenges and take risk control as an important part of project management. This paper provides some theoretical analysis and suggestions for the investment risk control of the double polymer project in Uzbekistan, and strengthens the investment risk control ability and the investment risk control consciousness of the project personnel in Uzbekistan. Facing risks, maintaining a calm and sober mind, adhering to an attitude of seeking truth from facts, using scientific methods and means, setting risks in anticipation, planning strategies, carefully preventing and coping with serious risks, and managing common risks, Be good at making use of risk to gain economic benefit, be the driver of risk. Based on the situation of Uzbekistan and the actual situation of our company, this paper applies the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to identify and analyze from the perspective of subcontractors. The investment risk of Uzbekistan Shuangyu Project of Petrochemical Construction Company is evaluated. The investment risk of the project is divided into systematic risk and non-systematic risk. The system risk is fully identified from the point of view of PEST, and the non-systematic risk is identified from the perspective of horizontal value chain management and vertical project implementation process. Aiming at the identified risk factors, the paper puts forward various risk control measures, which focus on reducing the investment risk of the project and improving the economic benefit. Based on the competitive strength of China's engineering enterprises, and guided by the idea of overall risk control of international engineering projects, combined with the project of Sinopec Uzbekistan, the system risk and non-system risk of subcontractors are analyzed in detail. The risk factors of the project are identified by means of investigation and expert scoring, the risk hierarchy chart of the international contracting project in Central Asia is obtained, a reasonable and comprehensive risk evaluation system for international project investment is established, and the weight of the risk factor is calculated by using MATLAB software. The AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to evaluate the project risk, and the comprehensive evaluation grade of the whole project investment risk is obtained. In order to improve the bidding ability of the project in Central Asia, this paper makes a great deal of research on the special political background, economic environment and social culture of Central Asia, and understands the local market situation. Provide appropriate advice and reference for the company's subsequent bids. From the perspective of subcontractors, this paper provides a scientific risk control framework for the development of international engineering contractors in Central Asia, analyzes and evaluates investment risks, and puts forward corresponding precautions and countermeasures for each risk. To help contractors adopt scientific management methods to minimize risks and create good economic benefits.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F125;F426.22
本文编号：2397407
[Abstract]:In 2013, President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to four Central Asian countries and signed major cooperation documents in areas such as oil and natural gas, marking the further implementation of China's "going out" strategy in Central Asia. It provides a good opportunity for Chinese engineering contractors to open up the market in Central Asia, and the number of international projects in Central Asia will increase rapidly. International engineering projects have a lot of uncertainty, including many risk factors, these factors are interrelated, mutual influence, mutual transformation, intricate intertwined. Facing the new environment, the company should deal with the new challenges and take risk control as an important part of project management. This paper provides some theoretical analysis and suggestions for the investment risk control of the double polymer project in Uzbekistan, and strengthens the investment risk control ability and the investment risk control consciousness of the project personnel in Uzbekistan. Facing risks, maintaining a calm and sober mind, adhering to an attitude of seeking truth from facts, using scientific methods and means, setting risks in anticipation, planning strategies, carefully preventing and coping with serious risks, and managing common risks, Be good at making use of risk to gain economic benefit, be the driver of risk. Based on the situation of Uzbekistan and the actual situation of our company, this paper applies the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to identify and analyze from the perspective of subcontractors. The investment risk of Uzbekistan Shuangyu Project of Petrochemical Construction Company is evaluated. The investment risk of the project is divided into systematic risk and non-systematic risk. The system risk is fully identified from the point of view of PEST, and the non-systematic risk is identified from the perspective of horizontal value chain management and vertical project implementation process. Aiming at the identified risk factors, the paper puts forward various risk control measures, which focus on reducing the investment risk of the project and improving the economic benefit. Based on the competitive strength of China's engineering enterprises, and guided by the idea of overall risk control of international engineering projects, combined with the project of Sinopec Uzbekistan, the system risk and non-system risk of subcontractors are analyzed in detail. The risk factors of the project are identified by means of investigation and expert scoring, the risk hierarchy chart of the international contracting project in Central Asia is obtained, a reasonable and comprehensive risk evaluation system for international project investment is established, and the weight of the risk factor is calculated by using MATLAB software. The AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to evaluate the project risk, and the comprehensive evaluation grade of the whole project investment risk is obtained. In order to improve the bidding ability of the project in Central Asia, this paper makes a great deal of research on the special political background, economic environment and social culture of Central Asia, and understands the local market situation. Provide appropriate advice and reference for the company's subsequent bids. From the perspective of subcontractors, this paper provides a scientific risk control framework for the development of international engineering contractors in Central Asia, analyzes and evaluates investment risks, and puts forward corresponding precautions and countermeasures for each risk. To help contractors adopt scientific management methods to minimize risks and create good economic benefits.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F125;F426.22
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