基于国际比较视域的中国居民消费升级评价研究

发布时间：2019-01-06 15:05

【摘要】：我国政府在十三五规划中提出:"适应消费加快升级,以消费环境改善释放消费潜力,以供给改善和创新更好满足、创造消费需求,不断增强消费拉动经济的基础作用。增强消费能力,改善大众消费预期,挖掘农村消费潜力,着力扩大居民消费。以扩大服务消费为重点带动消费结构升级,支持信息、绿色、时尚、品质等新型消费,稳步促进住房、汽车和健康养老等大宗消费。推动线上线下融合等消费新模式发展。实施消费品质量提升工程,强化消费者权益保护,充分发挥消费者协会作用,营造放心便利的消费环境。积极引导海外消费回流。以重要旅游目的地城市为依托,优化免税店布局,培育发展国际消费中心"1。本文利用编制指数体系来全面反映我国居民消费升级的状况,并和国际上的发达国家和发展中国家的消费升级状况进行了比较。此外本研究还利用广泛使用的ELES模型深入分析了我国居民消费结构升级的情况,期望能够发现我国居民消费升级的规律,为我国政府促进消费升级提供建议和参考。消费在拉动经济增长中具有重要作用,只有对居民消费升级进行了详细的了解才能准确把握刺激居民消费升级的要点,然而现有的研究主要集中在对消费结构的研究上,忽略了消费升级的其他方面,本研究重新树立了消费升级的概念,明晰了消费升级所包含的内容。消费结构升级只是消费升级的一部分,消费升级还包括消费水平的升级,消费环境的升级,消费公平性的升级,和消费持续性升级。通过对相关文献的整理,本文提出了消费升级的三级指标体系,该指标体系第一级指标就是消费升级指标,然后本文按照消费升级的构成维度分成以下五个二级指标:消费水平升级指标,消费结构升级指标,消费环境升级指标,消费公平性升级指标,消费持续性升级指标。这五个指标又被分解成更多的三级指标。利用世界银行提供的各国消费升级数据,本文绘制了我国居民消费升级不同维度下的指标变化情况,我们能够直观观察到我国消费细分指标的变化,另外利用国家统计局的数据,本文采用ELES建立收入和消费数据的关系,研究了我国不同收入组在2002-2012年间的动态居民消费的边际消费倾向。并利用MATLAB绘制出了相关图表。研究发现我国居民总消费边际消费倾向在2003-2012年间是不断下降的,从一个侧面验证了绝对收入假说的推论:"边际消费倾向随收入增长而递减"。也说明我国居民消费水平已经进入到全新的阶段。本文基于我国居民消费升级的不足提出了促进我国居民消费升级的建议:1、改善消费环境,虽然近年来我国互联网金融有了较大发展,我国网络零售额不断取得突破,我国居民的消费环境已经得到较大改善,但制约消费的因素并没有完全消失,为此本文认为我国应坚持推进城市化战略,加大基础设施的建设,降低居民出行消费的成本,使大都市消费圈成为消费升级的发动机。我国还应鼓励各种消费信用的发展,包括居民诚信体系的建设,为居民消费提供信贷支持,促进消费的平滑,解除消费的流动性制约。2、建立相关的消费升级监测机制,到现在为止我国还没有全面测算我国居民消费升级的机构,本文认为我国政府应建立消费大数据采集平台,能够提供对居民消费升级研究提供可靠的数据,推出消费升级的指数,使之成为消费升级的指示器。最后本文总结了本研究的不足和未来研究的重点。
[Abstract]:In the 13th Five-Year Plan, the Government of my country proposed: "To adapt to consumption to accelerate the upgrade, to improve the release consumption potential with the consumption environment, to supply the improvement and innovation to better meet, to create the consumption demand, and to continuously enhance the basic function of the consumption pulling economy. Strengthen the consumption ability, improve the public consumption expectation, tap the rural consumption potential, and focus on expanding the consumption of the residents. In order to expand the service consumption, we will focus on the promotion of consumption structure, support the new consumption of information, green, fashion and quality, and steadily promote the commodities such as housing, automobile and health care. and promote the development of consumption new mode such as fusion and the like under the line-line of the line. Implement the quality promotion project of the consumer goods, strengthen the protection of the consumer's rights and interests, give full play to the role of the consumer association, and create a comfortable and convenient consumption environment. Actively lead overseas consumption and return. To optimize the layout of the duty-free shop and to foster the development of the international consumption center based on the important tourist destination cities" 1. In this paper, the index system is used to reflect the status of the country's consumption and upgrade, and the consumption and upgrade status of the developed and developing countries in the world are compared. In addition, this study uses the widely used ELES model to analyze the situation of the upgrade of the resident's consumption structure in our country, and it is expected that the law of the consumption upgrading of our country can be found, so as to provide suggestions and references for the government to promote the consumption and upgrade. Consumption plays an important role in the promotion of economic growth, and only a detailed understanding of the consumption upgrading of the residents can accurately grasp the key points of stimulating the consumption and upgrading of the consumer. However, the existing research is mainly focused on the research on the consumption structure, and the other aspects of the consumption promotion are ignored. This study reestablishes the concept of consumption promotion, and makes clear the contents included in the consumption promotion. The upgrade of the consumption structure is only a part of the consumption upgrade. The consumption upgrade also includes the upgrade of the consumption level, the upgrade of the consumption environment, the upgrade of the consumption fairness, and the continuous upgrade of consumption. Through the arrangement of the related documents, this paper puts forward the three-level index system of consumption upgrading, the first-level indicator of the index system is the consumption promotion index, and then the article is divided into the following five secondary indexes according to the component dimension of the consumption promotion: the consumption level upgrade index, The consumption structure upgrade index, the consumption environment upgrade index, the consumption fairness upgrade index, the consumption persistence upgrade index. The five indicators are also broken down into more three-level indicators. With the data of national consumption promotion provided by the World Bank, this paper draws the change of the index in different dimensions of the consumption upgrading of our country, and we can observe the change of the consumption sub-division index in our country, and make use of the data of the national statistical office. In this paper, the relationship between income and consumption data is established by the ELES, and the marginal consumption tendency of the different income groups in China during the period 2002-2012 is studied. and the correlation chart is drawn by using MATLAB. The study found that the marginal consumption trend of the total consumption of the population in our country is declining from 2003 to 2012, and the inference of the absolute income hypothesis is verified from one side: the "The trend of marginal consumption is decreasing with the increase of income". It also shows that the consumption level of our country has entered a brand-new stage. Based on the deficiency of our country's consumption upgrading, this paper puts forward the suggestion to promote the consumer upgrade of our country: 1. To improve the consumption environment, although the Internet finance in our country has developed greatly in recent years, the retail sales of our country have made a breakthrough. The consumption environment of our residents has been greatly improved, but the factors that restrict the consumption are not completely disappeared. In this paper, we believe that our country should adhere to the urbanization strategy, increase the construction of the infrastructure, and reduce the cost of the residents' travel consumption. Make the metropolitan consumption circle the engine of consumption upgrading. China should also encourage the development of various consumption credit, including the construction of the credit system of the residents, provide credit support for residents' consumption, promote the smooth of consumption, and release the liquidity restriction of consumption. So far, our country has not fully calculated the institution of our country's resident consumption upgrading. The paper holds that the government of our country should set up the consumption big data acquisition platform, can provide reliable data for the research of the resident's consumption, and push out the index of consumption promotion. Make it an indicator of the consumption upgrade. In the end, this paper sums up the deficiencies of this study and the focus of future research.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1

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