我国扩大居民消费与宏观经济稳定研究
发布时间：2019-01-10 19:31
【摘要】：在我国当前畸形的投资消费结构下,提高消费率,必然要求降低投资率。为满足柯布-道格拉斯生产函数规模报酬不变的假设,找到第三产业就业比重作为技术进步的代理变量,在此前提下运用总量生产函数,笔者研究了降低投资率对我国宏观经济稳定(用GDP经济增长速度代理)与居民消费率的影响。结果发现:减少投资,会导致GDP增速降低,在假定货物与服务净出口和政府消费占GDP的份额不变的条件下,居民消费额会增加,而且居民消费占GDP的比重也会增加(除去少数例外)。我国投资减少GDP的5%,GDP的增速将下降到4%左右,居民消费率增长约3.5%。我国GDP增速4%,可能是我们可以接受的GDP增速的一个"心理底线"。
[Abstract]:Under the present abnormal structure of investment and consumption in our country, it is necessary to reduce the investment rate in order to increase the consumption rate. In order to satisfy the assumption of constant scale reward of Cobb-Douglas production function, the employment proportion of the tertiary industry is found as a proxy variable of technological progress. Under this premise, the total production function is used. The author studies the influence of reducing investment rate on macroeconomic stability (using GDP economic growth rate agent) and resident consumption rate. The results show that reduced investment will lead to lower GDP growth, assuming that net exports of goods and services and the share of government consumption as a share of GDP will increase. And household consumption as a share of GDP will rise (with a few exceptions). The growth rate of GDP will drop to about 4%, and the consumption rate of residents will increase by 3.5%. China's GDP growth rate is likely to be an acceptable GDP growth rate of a "psychological bottom line."
【作者单位】： 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(11CJL014)
【分类号】：F124;F126.1
本文编号：2406705
[Abstract]:Under the present abnormal structure of investment and consumption in our country, it is necessary to reduce the investment rate in order to increase the consumption rate. In order to satisfy the assumption of constant scale reward of Cobb-Douglas production function, the employment proportion of the tertiary industry is found as a proxy variable of technological progress. Under this premise, the total production function is used. The author studies the influence of reducing investment rate on macroeconomic stability (using GDP economic growth rate agent) and resident consumption rate. The results show that reduced investment will lead to lower GDP growth, assuming that net exports of goods and services and the share of government consumption as a share of GDP will increase. And household consumption as a share of GDP will rise (with a few exceptions). The growth rate of GDP will drop to about 4%, and the consumption rate of residents will increase by 3.5%. China's GDP growth rate is likely to be an acceptable GDP growth rate of a "psychological bottom line."
【作者单位】： 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(11CJL014)
【分类号】：F124;F126.1
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