全要素生产率增长中的技术效应与结构效应——基于中国宏观和产业数据的测算及分解

发布时间：2019-02-26 22:09

【摘要】：宏观全要素生产率增长可分解为代表普遍技术进步的技术效应和要素流动配置的结构效应。本文利用中国宏观及产业数据,在增长核算基础上将TFP增长分解为技术效应和结构效应,据以对改革开放以来不同阶段中国经济增长的来源进行细致剖析。实证结果表明:(1)得益于后发优势,1978—2014年间中国经济增长整体质量较高,增长动力约1/3来自技术水平的普遍提升,而结构效应的作用仅为技术效应的1/5。(2)2005年以后,中外技术差距的缩小导致后发优势逐步衰减,技术进步对经济增长的支撑作用迅速下降;而结构效应对经济增长的贡献度不断提高,并维持了较高的TFP增长率;该趋势在二、三产业尤为突出,这也是工业化和城市化推进的结果。(3)金融危机后,产能过剩的钢铁、水泥所属领域和"金融与保险"、"房地产"等细分行业技术停滞或倒退却积累了更大比重的要素,存在要素资源配置"逆技术进步倾向";要素驱动特征不断强化,至2014年才出现扭转迹象。宏观和产业TFP增长是未来保持中国经济中高速增长、提高经济增长质量的重要支撑。短期内应着力优化产业结构,将要素资源引导到技术和效率水平更高的细分行业,借助结构效应实现TFP增长;中长期则要实施好创新驱动发展战略,切实推动各行业技术进步。
[Abstract]:The growth of macro-total factor productivity can be divided into technical effects representing universal technological progress and structural effects of factor flow allocation. Based on the macro and industrial data of China, this paper decomposes TFP growth into technical and structural effects on the basis of growth accounting, so as to make a detailed analysis of the sources of China's economic growth in different stages since the reform and opening up to the outside world. The empirical results show that: (1) the overall quality of China's economic growth in 1978 / 2014 is relatively high, and the driving force of the growth is about 1 / 3 due to the general improvement of the technical level, thanks to the advantage of late development. (2) after 2005, the narrowing of the technological gap between China and foreign countries led to the gradual attenuation of the advantage of late development, and the supporting effect of technological progress on economic growth decreased rapidly; (2) after 2005, the effect of the structure effect was only 1 / 5 of the technological effect. However, the contribution of structural effect to economic growth is increasing and maintaining a higher TFP growth rate. This trend is particularly evident in the secondary and tertiary industries, which is also the result of the advancement of industrialization and urbanization. (3) after the financial crisis, overcapacity of steel, cement and the "finance and insurance" sectors, The technology stagnation or retrogression of "real estate" and other subdivision industries have accumulated a larger proportion of the elements, and there is a "reverse tendency of technological progress" in the allocation of factor resources; Factor-driven features continue to strengthen, showing signs of reversal only in 2014. Macro-and industrial TFP growth is an important support for maintaining high-speed economic growth and improving the quality of economic growth in China in the future. In the short term, we should optimize the industrial structure, guide the factor resources to the industries with higher level of technology and efficiency, and realize the growth of TFP with the aid of structural effects, and implement the innovation-driven development strategy well in the medium and long term to promote the technological progress of various industries.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;中国社会科学院研究生院;
【基金】：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“创新驱动发展的分析与测算”(10620161001005) 国家软科学面上项目“产业结构转换、技术创新与中国经济增长潜力提升”(2014GXS4B073) 中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心/国家社科基金重大项目“创新驱动发展战略与‘双创’研究”(2015YZD03)等项目的资助
【分类号】：F124;F224

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