我国产业结构与就业结构匹配程度的分析

发布时间：2019-03-18 10:38

【摘要】：尽管我国经济实现了30多年的快速增长,但由于庞大的人口规模,长期以来我国一直面临着巨大的就业压力。虽然以加工贸易为主的出口导向型经济增长模式极大地改善了我国农村剩余劳动力的就业状况,但长期以来我国经济增长的就业弹性不高,而且呈波动下降趋势。本文试图从我国产业结构与就业结构变动的相互关系着手,研究经济增长、经济结构变化与就业的关系。提出现阶段产业结构与就业结构变动之间缺乏协调性是影响就业的主要原因之一。通过计算三次产业结构与就业结构之间的结构偏离度、相关系数、协调系数以及就业弹性等指标,本文深入分析了我国产业结构与就业结构之间的互动关系,提出两者之间存在严重的不协调状况,这种不协调变动的关系抑制了我国经济的快速增长带动就业扩张的效应。之后,基于全国及31省市产业结构与就业结构相关数据的实证分析,讨论了两者间不协调变动的原因。最后,提出下一阶段促进就业的相关政策建议。本文首先针对全国1978-2012年间三次产业产值比重与就业比重变化的相关数据计算上述四个指标。分析发现：在此期间,我国产业结构与就业结构之间结构偏离度在逐渐下降,且协调系数也在逐渐上升,表明两者之间的不均衡程度正在逐渐减弱。但是,第一产业就业比重一直大于其产值比重,说明中国农村仍然滞留着大量的剩余劳动力；第二、第三产业的就业比重均小于其产值比重,说明二、三产业还有很大的就业空间,尤其是第三产业的就业弹性较大,可以吸纳更多的劳动力。其次,本文分析了1990-2010年间全国31省市产业结构与就业结构变动的相关数据。通过构建面板数据模型,试图找出影响两者间结构偏离度、协调系数以及就业弹性的因素。发现,东部地区两者间的变动关系较均衡,中部次之,而西部地区产业结构与就业结构的不均衡现象最为严重。在此基础上,分析产值比重与就业比重偏离的原因,以及影响产业吸纳就业能力大小的因素。本文从总量和结构两方面分别对我国改革开放以来产业结构与就业结构变化的互动关系进行了分析,提出两者间存在经济发展的阶段性特征以及存在东、中、西部间的地域差异；基于对总量和地区间产业结构与就业结构变动不协调的影响因素分析,提出相关改善产业结构与就业结构变动协调关系、促进就业的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Although our country economy has achieved more than 30 years of rapid growth, but because of the huge population size, our country has been faced with huge employment pressure for a long time. Although the export-oriented economic growth model based on processing trade has greatly improved the employment situation of the rural surplus labor force in China, the employment elasticity of our country's economic growth has not been high for a long time, and it shows the trend of fluctuation and decline. This paper attempts to study the relationship between economic growth, economic structure change and employment from the relationship between industrial structure and employment structure change in China. It is pointed out that the lack of coordination between industrial structure and employment structure is one of the main reasons that affect employment. By calculating the structural deviation, correlation coefficient, coordination coefficient and employment elasticity between the three industrial structures and the employment structure, this paper deeply analyzes the interactive relationship between the industrial structure and the employment structure in China. It is pointed out that there is a serious incoordination between the two, which inhibits the effect of rapid economic growth leading to employment expansion in China. After that, based on the empirical analysis of industrial structure and employment structure in China and 31 provinces and cities, this paper discusses the reasons why they do not change harmoniously. Finally, put forward the next stage to promote employment related policy recommendations. In this paper, we first calculate the above four indexes according to the relative data of the proportion of output value of three industries and the proportion of employment in China in 1978 / 2012. It is found that during this period, the degree of deviation between industrial structure and employment structure in China is gradually decreasing, and the coordination coefficient is also gradually increasing, indicating that the degree of imbalance between the two is gradually weakening. However, the proportion of employment in the primary industry has always been larger than the proportion of its output value, indicating that there is still a large amount of surplus labor in the rural areas of China. Second, the employment ratio of the tertiary industry is smaller than that of its output value, which indicates that there is still a lot of employment space for the secondary and tertiary industries, especially the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry, which can absorb more labor force. Secondly, this paper analyzes the industrial structure and employment structure of 31 provinces and cities in China in 1990-2010. By constructing the panel data model, this paper tries to find out the factors that affect the structural deviation, coordination coefficient and employment elasticity between the two. It is found that the dynamic relationship between the two is more balanced in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and the imbalance between industrial structure and employment structure is the most serious in the western region. On this basis, this paper analyzes the reasons for the deviation between the proportion of output value and the proportion of employment, as well as the factors that affect the ability of industry to absorb employment. This paper analyzes the interactive relationship between industrial structure and employment structure since the reform and opening-up in China from the aspects of total quantity and structure, and points out that there are stages of economic development between the two, and that they exist in the east and in the middle. The regional differences among the western regions; Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the disharmony between the total quantity and the inter-regional industrial structure and employment structure, some policy suggestions are put forward to improve the harmonious relationship between the industrial structure and the employment structure change and promote employment.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.21

【参考文献】