外国直接投资对哈萨克斯坦经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2019-05-17 13:40

【摘要】：本文的研究目的是考量外国直接投资对于哈萨克斯坦经济的影响。投资在经济发展中扮演者重要角色。他们对经济的稳定发展和持续增长必不可少,积极的投资过程从整体上决定了一国的潜在经济状况,有助于人民生活质量的提升。经济个体的活动很大程度上取决于投资的数量和形式。从经济层面来讲,投资要求扩大再生产力、国家结构的改革、提升国内产品的竞争力、解决社会经济问题、尤其是失业率、环境、健康以及教育制度等方面的问题。从宏观层面来看,投资有助于公司的可持续性发展、有利于固定资产的升级、提升公司的技术水平、稳定财务环境、增强公司的竞争力、提升劳动力水平、改善管理技能。与哈萨克斯坦共和国的经济持续稳定形势相关,许多知名经济学家把我们国家的未来发展情况与哈萨克斯坦大规模的外国投资联系在了一起,哈萨克斯坦致力于建立文明社会,提高人民生活质量的长期目标。很难相信一些外国投资对于提升我们伟大的祖国的经济有帮助。但是,从一个角度来看,外国投资对于本国经济的发展和增长也是一种刺激,可以视为是一种催化剂。外国投资产生的资金流入对于解决现在的危机、完成初步恢复工作来讲至关重要。哈萨克斯坦公民的利益与外国投资者的利益并不相冲突,因此,吸引资本十分重要,不是剥夺拥有者的初始动力,而是处于外国投资后续的行为有利于哈萨克斯坦共和国的目的。这个问题可以解决,但是首先我们需要了解哈萨克斯坦有关于吸引外国投资的具体规定,以便于思考可以提升国家投资环境的更好的经济和法律结构。因此,大量的精力应该集中在这方面的不确定性限制了投资的环境,至少目前来看是这样的,因此,有一种奇怪的悖论:保证投资者源于主要投资是吸引外国投资的最有效的方法。假设哈萨克斯坦在多数情况下严重的技术落后,我们国家需要外国资本,这将带来新的技术和现代的管理方法,这也将促进本国投资的发展。许多发展中国家的经验显示经济中的投资快速发展始于外国资本的进入。本篇文章的主要目的是分析哈萨克斯坦从1991年起外国直接投资和经济增长的关系。对于实证分析我选用了简单回归分析模型,使用了哈萨克斯坦从1993年到2016年的的差分经济数据。通过分析可以看出,GDP的增长率和货币供给与外国直接投资和出口数量有关联。在运转回归模型之前,我们需要检验数据的稳定性。之后,我将会使用线性回归模型。本文使用的数据指标如GDP, FDI,货币供给和出口数量均采用1993至2016年间的数据。对于时间序列的预测,本文选用了 ARIMA模型,ARIMA是综合自回归移动平均模型的简称。它是一类在时间序列数据中捕获一组不同标准时间结构的模型。对于这个方法,本文采用了 1993年到2014年的数据,并且对2017年的指标进行了预测。根据哈萨克斯坦共和国中央银行的数据显示,在2005到2016年间,哈萨克斯坦共和国总共吸引了 221亿的外国直接投资。根据“Doing Business 2016”的国际排名,在190个国家中,哈萨克斯坦的吸引外国投资的能力排名第29位。为了使整个国家创造出利于投资的的商业环境,哈萨克斯坦政府以商业发达的国家为榜样,尤其注意提升商业背景。本篇论文更具体的为如下问题进行了分析:分析哈萨克斯坦的投资环境;投资对于哈萨克斯坦经济的作用;通过线性回归分析外国直接投资对于经济增长的影响;分析哈萨克斯坦共和国1993～2016外国直接资现金流的情况;检验影响哈萨克斯坦外国直接投资流入的因素;通过ARIMA模型预测哈萨克斯坦的外国直接投资的流入;分析外国直接投资流入的地区和部门。尽管外国直接投资对于整个国家来讲十分重要,然而目前还没有研究表明外国直接投资与经济增长之间有着明确的正向关系。许多研究表明只有从欠发达地区获得的数据才有正向关系的趋势,然而研究人员并没有从发达国家中找出相关的结论,本片论文以哈萨克斯坦为基础,一方面研究了这种积极关系是否存在,另一方面,本文的研究结论将有利于我自己国家的外国直接投资的增长,从而促进经济的繁荣。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to consider the impact of foreign direct investment on the economy of Kazakhstan. Investment plays an important role in economic development. They are essential to the stable development and sustained growth of the economy, and the positive investment process determines the potential economic situation of a country as a whole, and contributes to the improvement of the quality of the people's life. The activity of the economic individual depends to a large extent on the quantity and form of the investment. At the economic level, the investment demands the expansion of the re-productivity, the reform of the country's structure, the promotion of the competitiveness of the domestic product, the social and economic problems, in particular the unemployment, the environment, the health and the education system. From the macro level, investment can help the sustainable development of the company, benefit the upgrading of fixed assets, improve the technology level of the company, stabilize the financial environment, enhance the competitiveness of the company, improve the labor force level and improve the management skills. With regard to the situation of the economic and social stability of the Republic of Kazakhstan, many well-known economists have linked the future development of our country with the large-scale foreign investment in Kazakhstan, and Kazakhstan is committed to the establishment of a civil society, And the long-term goal of improving the quality of people's life. It is hard to believe that some foreign investment is helping to lift the economy of our great motherland. However, from one point of view, foreign investment is also a stimulus to the development and growth of its economy and can be seen as a catalyst. The inflow of funds from foreign investment is essential to the settlement of the present crisis and to the completion of the initial recovery effort. The interests of the citizens of Kazakhstan do not conflict with the interests of foreign investors, so it is important to attract capital, not to deprive the owner of the initial power, but to be in a follow-up to foreign investment for the purposes of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This problem can be solved, but first we need to know that Kazakhstan has specific provisions on attracting foreign investment in order to reflect on a better economic and legal structure that can improve the national investment environment. As a result, a great deal of energy should focus on the uncertainty in that area that limits the environment of investment, at least at the present time, and, therefore, there is a curious paradox: to ensure that investors are the most effective way to attract foreign investment from the main investment. Assuming that Kazakhstan's serious technical backwardness in most cases, our country needs foreign capital, which will bring about new technology and a modern management approach, which will also contribute to the development of national investment. The experience of many developing countries shows that the rapid development of investment in the economy begins with the entry of foreign capital. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the relationship between Kazakhstan's foreign direct investment and economic growth since 1991. For empirical analysis, I selected a simple regression analysis model, using the difference economic data from 1993 to 2016. By analysis, it can be seen that the growth rate of GDP and the supply of money are associated with the number of foreign direct investment and exports. Before running the regression model, we need to check the stability of the data. After that, I'll use the linear regression model. The data indicators used in this paper, such as GDP, FDI, currency supply and export volume, use data from 1993 to 2016. For the prediction of time series, the ARIMA model is selected, and ARIMA is the abbreviation of the integrated self-regressive moving average model. It is a class of time series data that captures a set of different standard time structures. For this approach, data from 1993 to 2014 were used and the indicators for 2017 were forecast. According to the data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of Kazakhstan has attracted a total of 221 million foreign direct investment between 2005 and 2016. According to the international ranking of the "Doing Business 2016", Kazakhstan's ability to attract foreign investment is the 29th in 190 countries. In order to create an investment-friendly business environment for the entire country, the Government of Kazakhstan, in the form of a well-developed country, has given particular attention to the promotion of the business context. In this paper, the following problems are analyzed: the investment environment of Kazakhstan is analyzed, the effect of investment on the economy of Kazakhstan is analyzed, and the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth is analyzed through linear regression analysis. Analysis of the cash flow of foreign direct investment in the Republic of Kazakhstan from 1993 to 2016; the factors affecting the inflows of foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan; the prediction of inflows of foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan through the ARIMA model; and the analysis of areas and sectors where FDI flows. While foreign direct investment is important to the country as a whole, there is no research at present to indicate a clear positive relationship between FDI and economic growth. Many studies have shown that only the data obtained from the less developed areas has a positive relationship, but the researchers do not find relevant conclusions from the developed countries, this paper is based on Kazakhstan, on the one hand, whether this positive relationship exists or not, and on the other hand, The conclusion of this paper will be beneficial to the growth of foreign direct investment in my own country, thus promoting the prosperity of the economy.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F833.61;F136.1

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