G20国际宏观经济政策协调机制研究

发布时间：2019-05-30 00:56

【摘要】：经济学中著名的“看不见的手”原则强调市场是组织经济活动的好方法,主张在充分竞争的市场上开展自由经济活动,市场主体作为理性的经济人,会根据利益最大化原则在市场这只看不见的手的指挥下进行交易。但若将“看不见的手”原则应用于世界范围内国家之间的宏观经济政策抉择上,这只手将会产生失灵现象。全球经济一体化使得国家之间的联系越来越紧密,一国的宏观经济政策将不再仅作用于国内,而是会通过溢出效应对其他国家的经济产生影响,若是任凭每个国家“各自为政”,往往会催生“以邻为壑”的政策并导致全球经济福利的减少。因此,研究国家之间的宏观经济政策协调问题对于促进全球经济发展十分重要。伴随着经济全球化的深入,国际宏观经济政策协调机制也在不断演进。2008年全球金融危机的爆发又一次凸显了国际宏观经济政策协调的需要,为了应对危机,各国团结协作,推动建立了新的国际宏观经济政策协调机制——G20领导人峰会。世界主要发达国家和发展中国家通过G20平台进行了广泛的宏观经济政策协调,有效地避免了危机的进一步蔓延。G20逐渐取代G7成为国际宏观经济政策协调的新机制。因此,本文选取G20作为研究国际宏观经济政策协调机制的切入点,通过对G20的产生、特点、运行、议题等方面的分析明确G20机制协调宏观经济政策的方式,通过对G20宏观经济政策协调成果的分析明确G20在国际宏观经济政策协调领域内的作用,根据在成效分析中暴露的问题提出G20未来的改革方向。本文首先梳理了相关的基础理论:博弈论基础之上的最优政策分析表明国际宏观经济政策协调的必要性——纳什均衡是一种帕累托无效率的非合作均衡;蒙代尔-弗莱明模型证明了货币政策的溢出效应;哈马达模型表明政策合作能够带来福利改进。其次概述了国际宏观经济政策协调机制的四个发展阶段:金本位制时期、布雷顿森林体系时期、G7体系时期、G20体系时期;阐述了G20的历史演进、特点、运行机制、议题设置,G20成员国有代表性、运行机制有灵活性,成员国内存在利益不同的小集团国。最后分析了G20宏观经济政策协调的成效和改革措施,以及中国面临的机遇和挑战,提出了中国参与G20国际宏观经济政策协调机制的建议,应充分利用好G20平台并扩展更多的合作机制,通过更广范围地布局经济金融网络来提高中国在全球经济治理中的话语权。
[Abstract]:The famous "invisible hand" principle in economics emphasizes that the market is a good way to organize economic activities, and advocates that free economic activities should be carried out in a fully competitive market, and the market subject should be regarded as a rational economic man. Transactions will be carried out under the command of the invisible hand of the market in accordance with the principle of maximization of interests. But if the "invisible hand" principle is applied to macroeconomic policy choices between countries around the world, this hand will fail. Global economic integration makes countries more and more closely linked, and one country's macroeconomic policies will no longer act only at home, but will have an impact on the economies of other countries through spillover effects. Leaving each country "separate" tends to lead to beggar-thy-neighbour policies and a decline in global economic welfare. Therefore, it is very important to study macroeconomic policy coordination between countries to promote global economic development. With the deepening of economic globalization, the international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism is also constantly evolutioning. the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 once again highlighted the need for international macroeconomic policy coordination, in order to deal with the crisis, countries unite and cooperate. Promoted the establishment of a new international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism, the G20 leaders Summit. The major developed and developing countries in the world have carried out extensive macroeconomic policy coordination through the G20 platform, effectively avoiding the further spread of the crisis. G20 gradually replaced G7 as a new mechanism of international macroeconomic policy coordination. Therefore, this paper selects the G20 as the starting point to study the international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism, and clarifies the way in which the G20 mechanism coordinates macroeconomic policies through the analysis of the emergence, characteristics, operation, issues and other aspects of the G20. Through the analysis of the results of G20 macroeconomic policy coordination, the role of G20 in the field of international macroeconomic policy coordination is clarified, and the future reform direction of G20 is put forward according to the problems exposed in the effectiveness analysis. This paper first combs the relevant basic theory: the optimal policy analysis on the basis of game theory shows the necessity of international macroeconomic policy coordination-Nash equilibrium is a kind of Pareto inefficient non-cooperative equilibrium; The Mondale-Fleming model proves the spillover effect of monetary policy, and the Hamada model shows that policy cooperation can bring about welfare improvement. Secondly, it summarizes the four development stages of the international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism: the gold standard period, the Bretton Woods system period, the G7 system period, the G20 system period; This paper expounds the historical evolution, characteristics, operating mechanism, issue setting of G20 members, the representativeness of G20 member countries, the flexibility of operating mechanism, and the existence of small group countries with different interests in member countries. Finally, this paper analyzes the effectiveness and reform measures of G20 macroeconomic policy coordination, as well as the opportunities and challenges facing China, and puts forward some suggestions for China to participate in the G20 international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism. We should make full use of the G20 platform and expand more cooperation mechanisms to improve China's voice in global economic governance through a broader layout of economic and financial networks.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F113

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