亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动结构与经济增长研究

发布时间：2019-06-03 11:24

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和贸易自由化的发展，亚洲新兴经济体为了分享全球化的利益，纷纷逐步放松资本管制，走上资本开放进程。这一举措为其争取到了良好的发展机遇。大量的国际资本流入对亚洲新兴经济体经济的迅猛发展起到了不可忽视的作用，但同时也带来了潜在的金融风险。世界经济环境的不断变化使得国际资本在新兴经济体的流动日趋频繁，结构波动也愈加剧烈。国际资本流动结构的变化显著影响着国际资本的流动性和亚洲新兴经济体的经济增长。如何科学合理的确定引资结构，最大化利用外资促进经济增长的同时防范金融风险成为当前亚洲新兴经济体共同面临的一个政策难题。在这种背景下，建立准确规范的经济模型分析亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动结构对经济增长的影响作用具有重要的研究意义。本文首先基于内生增长理论建立模型分析国际资本流动结构对经济增长的影响，然后简要介绍了亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动结构的国别情况并分析亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动结构在不同的经济增长阶段的变化特征，接着在实证部分本文利用7个亚洲新兴经济体1992-2012年间的国际资本流动结构与经济增长数据建立面板回归模型，分析国际资本流动结构对亚洲新兴经济体经济增长的影响，研究结果表明：国际资本流动结构显著影响经济增长，三种类型的国际资本流动形式均能促进亚洲新兴经济体的经济增长。其中，直接投资的经济增长效用最大，证券投资次之，，其他投资最小。当国际资本流动出现逆转，即资本净流入为负时，东道国经济增长率将显著下降。在此基础上，本文提出了我国国际资本流动结构管理的原则：积极引进国际资本，合理确定引资结构，充分发挥引入资本的经济增长效用，防范资本流动风险。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and trade liberalization, Asian emerging economies have gradually relaxed capital controls and embarked on the process of capital opening in order to share the benefits of globalization. This move has won it a good opportunity for development. A large number of international capital inflows have played an important role in the rapid development of Asian emerging economies, but also brought potential financial risks. With the continuous change of the world economic environment, the flow of international capital in emerging economies is becoming more and more frequent, and the structural fluctuations are becoming more and more intense. The change of international capital flow structure has a significant impact on the liquidity of international capital and the economic growth of Asian emerging economies. How to scientifically and reasonably determine the structure of attracting foreign investment and maximize the use of foreign capital to promote economic growth while preventing financial risks has become a common policy problem faced by Asian emerging economies. In this context, it is of great significance to establish an accurate and standardized economic model to analyze the impact of international capital flow structure on economic growth in Asian emerging economies. In this paper, based on the theory of endogenous growth, a model is established to analyze the impact of international capital flow structure on economic growth. Then it briefly introduces the country situation of the international capital flow structure of Asian emerging economies and analyzes the changing characteristics of the international capital flow structure of Asian emerging economies at different stages of economic growth. Then, in the empirical part, this paper uses the international capital flow structure and economic growth data of seven Asian emerging economies from 1992 to 2012 to establish a panel regression model to analyze the impact of international capital flow structure on the economic growth of Asian emerging economies. The results show that the structure of international capital flows significantly affects economic growth, and all three types of international capital flows can promote the economic growth of Asian emerging economies. Among them, direct investment has the greatest economic growth effect, securities investment is the second, and other investments are the smallest. When the international capital flow reverses, that is, the net capital inflow is negative, the economic growth rate of the host country will decline significantly. On this basis, this paper puts forward the principles of the management of international capital flow structure in China: actively introducing international capital, reasonably determining the structure of attracting capital, giving full play to the economic growth effect of introducing capital, and preventing the risk of capital flow.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.7;F114.46

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