基于系统动力学的经济增长对铜产业的传导机制及实证研究

发布时间：2019-06-05 11:20

【摘要】：中国经济增长将继续保持良好势头，同时也面临着关键转型。经济的发展与转型必将对中国铜产业的发展带来巨大的影响。中国铜产业将会受到怎样的影响？这种影响表现在铜产业各环节的供需指标上将会是怎样的变化趋势？面对这种影响及变化，中国铜产业应当如何应对？这些都是急需研究和回答的问题。研究中国经济增长对铜产业的传导机制能够回答上述问题。本文在构建“经济增长-铜产业”系统动力学模型的基础上，界定并分析了经济增长对铜产业的传导机制，并采用情景分析法分析了三种不同发展情景下中国经济增长趋势及其对铜产业的影响结果。本文的研究工作和主要贡献集中在以下四个方面：（1）界定了“经济增长-铜产业”系统。“经济增长-铜产业”系统是指在经济和产业运行背景下，由经济、人口、铜产业等多种系统要素耦合而成的复合系统。该系统包含经济增长和铜产业两个子系统，两个子系统之间相互作用、互为影响。（2）构建了“经济增长-铜产业”系统动力学模型。本文基于产业链理论分析了铜产业的主要特征和组成环节，采用物质流分析法分析了铜产业子系统的要素因果关系和反馈机制，然后通过分析中国铜产业和经济增长的关系，构建了“经济增长-铜产业”系统动力学模型。（3）界定并分析了经济增长对铜产业的传导机制。“经济增长-铜产业”系统传导机制就是经济增长在发挥作用的过程中，各经济增长要素和铜产业指标通过精铜需求变化作用形成的一个有机联系的整体。（4）采用情景分析法，计算并分析了2012-2030年三种发展情景下的中国经济增长结果及其对铜产业的影响并提出了相应的政策建议。情景分析结果显示，在2012-2030年，年均增速较大的指标为铜精矿产量、精铜产量、精铜消费量、铜材产量、废铜间接利用量和废铜累计回收量。这些指标都是国内产能，意味着国内产能在中国铜产业中将发挥越来越重要的作用。在铜矿采选环节，铜精矿进口依然是铜矿资源的主要供给来源。但是，铜精矿进口量在大幅下降。在铜精炼环节，精铜产量始终大于精铜进口量，意味着国内产能依然是精铜的主要供给来源。在废铜回收利用环节，进口废铜量依然是废铜回收利用的主体，其用量要大于铜精炼和铜加工环节回收的废铜量。因此，我国在继续重视铜精矿进口的基础上，，巩固和保持现有的进口关系和渠道；精铜产量目标应当保持在950万吨到1300万吨之间；铜资源城市或企业应当在2020年之前实现城市产业或企业发展的转型升级，以规避铜需求下降带来的风险；铜加工产能调控目标应当在2000万吨以内，鼓励铜加工业向其它发展中国家转移；扩大废铜进口量，保证废铜进口量至少能够达到850万吨，提升企业对促进再生铜资源利用的技术能力。
[Abstract]:China's economic growth will continue to maintain a good momentum, but also face a key transformation. The development and transformation of economy will have a great impact on the development of copper industry in China. How will China's copper industry be affected? This kind of influence is manifested in the copper industry each link supply and demand index will be what kind of change trend? In the face of this influence and change, how should China's copper industry deal with it? These are questions that need to be studied and answered urgently. The study of the transmission mechanism of China's economic growth to the copper industry can answer the above questions. On the basis of constructing the system dynamics model of "economic growth-copper industry", this paper defines and analyzes the transmission mechanism of economic growth to copper industry. The situation analysis method is used to analyze the economic growth trend of China and its influence on copper industry under three different development scenarios. The research work and main contributions of this paper focus on the following four aspects: (1) the system of "economic growth-copper industry" is defined. "Economic growth-copper industry" system refers to a composite system which is composed of many system elements, such as economy, population, copper industry and so on, under the background of economy and industrial operation. The system consists of two subsystems: economic growth and copper industry, which interact and influence each other. (2) the system dynamics model of "economic growth-copper industry" is constructed. Based on the theory of industrial chain, this paper analyzes the main characteristics and components of copper industry, analyzes the causality and feedback mechanism of copper industry subsystems by means of material flow analysis, and then analyzes the relationship between copper industry and economic growth in China. The system dynamics model of "economic growth-copper industry" is constructed. (3) the transmission mechanism of economic growth to copper industry is defined and analyzed. The transmission mechanism of "economic growth-copper industry" system is an organic whole formed by the change of demand for refined copper through the factors of economic growth and the index of copper industry in the process of economic growth. (4) by using situational analysis method, this paper calculates and analyzes the results of China's economic growth and its influence on copper industry under the three development scenarios from 2012 to 2030, and puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions. The results of scenario analysis show that from 2012 to 2030, the average annual growth rate is copper concentrate production, refined copper consumption, copper material output, indirect utilization of waste copper and cumulative recovery of waste copper. These indicators are domestic capacity, meaning that domestic capacity will play an increasingly important role in China's copper industry. In the process of copper mining and separation, the import of copper concentrate is still the main supply source of copper resources. However, copper concentrate imports are falling sharply. In copper refining, the output of refined copper has always been larger than the import of refined copper, which means that domestic production capacity is still the main source of supply of refined copper. In the recovery and utilization of copper waste, the amount of imported copper is still the main body of copper recovery and utilization, and its dosage is larger than that of copper refining and copper processing. Therefore, on the basis of continuing to attach importance to the import of copper concentrate, China should consolidate and maintain the existing import relations and channels, and the target of refined copper production should be between 9.5 million tons and 13 million tons. Cities or enterprises with copper resources should realize the transformation and upgrading of urban industry or enterprise development by 2020 in order to avoid the risk caused by the decline of copper demand. The target of regulating and controlling the production capacity of copper processing shall be less than 20 million tons, and the copper processing industry shall be encouraged to transfer to other developing countries; Expand the import of copper waste, ensure that the import of copper waste can reach at least 8.5 million tons, and enhance the technical ability of enterprises to promote the utilization of recycled copper resources.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.32;F124.1

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