城镇化过程中消费和投资需求变动的跨国比较研究
发布时间：2019-07-03 20:45
【摘要】：本文首先分别按照诺瑟姆曲线和钱纳里多国模型将一国的城镇化和经济发展水平分阶段，比较分析美国、日本、韩国、巴西、印度、中国等六个国家在相应阶段的发展水平，并运用1960-2011年52年的年度数据，比较分析了在相应的城镇化发展阶段中各个国家的消费和投资的变动差异，发现中国的居民最终消费额占GDP的比重明显低于发达国家和新兴国家，甚至低于发展中国家印度，而固定资产投资总额占GDP的比重远远高于所比较的其他国家。 针对中国“低消费、高投资”的现象，指出了储蓄率、老年抚养比、社会保障支出比、全国居民基尼系数等四个影响居民最终消费率的因素，首先用这些影响因素做了一个理论解释，然后运用1990-2011年22年的年度数据做了实证研究：单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验以及多元回归。研究结果表明：储蓄率、老年抚养比、全国居民基尼系数和居民最终消费率之间是反相关的关系，而社会保障支出比和居民最终消费率之间是正相关的关系。 最后根据实证研究结果，从几项影响居民最终消费率的因素入手，，为中国的城镇化发展道路以及在城镇化发展道路的过程中如何拉动居民消费这一需求提出建议和对策。
[Abstract]:In this paper, according to the Northham curve and Chanary multinational model, the urbanization and economic development level of a country are divided into stages, and the development levels of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, India and China in the corresponding stage are compared and analyzed, and the changes and differences of consumption and investment in each country in the corresponding stage of urbanization development are compared and analyzed by using the annual data from 1960 to 2011. It is found that the proportion of final consumption of Chinese residents in GDP is significantly lower than that of developed and emerging countries, and even lower than that of developing countries, India, while the proportion of total fixed asset investment in GDP is much higher than that of other countries compared with other countries. In view of the phenomenon of "low consumption and high investment" in China, this paper points out four factors that affect the final consumption rate of residents, such as savings rate, elderly dependency ratio, social security expenditure ratio and national Gini coefficient. First, this paper makes a theoretical explanation with these factors, and then makes an empirical study by using the annual data from 1990 to 2011: unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and multiple regression. The results show that there is an inverse correlation between the savings rate, the elderly dependency ratio, the Gini coefficient of the national residents and the final consumption rate of the residents, while the ratio of social security expenditure to the final consumption rate of the residents is positively correlated. Finally, according to the results of empirical research, starting from several factors that affect the final consumption rate of residents, this paper puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures for the development road of urbanization in China and how to stimulate the demand of residents' consumption in the process of urbanization development.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.21;F126.1
本文编号：2509653
[Abstract]:In this paper, according to the Northham curve and Chanary multinational model, the urbanization and economic development level of a country are divided into stages, and the development levels of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, India and China in the corresponding stage are compared and analyzed, and the changes and differences of consumption and investment in each country in the corresponding stage of urbanization development are compared and analyzed by using the annual data from 1960 to 2011. It is found that the proportion of final consumption of Chinese residents in GDP is significantly lower than that of developed and emerging countries, and even lower than that of developing countries, India, while the proportion of total fixed asset investment in GDP is much higher than that of other countries compared with other countries. In view of the phenomenon of "low consumption and high investment" in China, this paper points out four factors that affect the final consumption rate of residents, such as savings rate, elderly dependency ratio, social security expenditure ratio and national Gini coefficient. First, this paper makes a theoretical explanation with these factors, and then makes an empirical study by using the annual data from 1990 to 2011: unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and multiple regression. The results show that there is an inverse correlation between the savings rate, the elderly dependency ratio, the Gini coefficient of the national residents and the final consumption rate of the residents, while the ratio of social security expenditure to the final consumption rate of the residents is positively correlated. Finally, according to the results of empirical research, starting from several factors that affect the final consumption rate of residents, this paper puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures for the development road of urbanization in China and how to stimulate the demand of residents' consumption in the process of urbanization development.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.21;F126.1
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