我国上市公司审计意见预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 20:12

本文选题：审计意见 + 财务指标　；参考：《暨南大学》2008年硕士论文

【摘要】： 注册会计师对上市公司财务报告信息质量的鉴证所发表的审计意见,是作为独立于上市公司和利益相关者的“第三人”而做的。审计报告的意见类型为公司各方面的利益相关者所重视,并能对他们的决策行为产生重要的影响,因此,通过某种适当方式对上市公司审计意见类型进行预测具有很好的现实意义。从80年代开始,国外研究者们已经开始进行审计意见预测研究,而近年来国内的学者在这一领域也作了相当的努力。但是以往的研究大都单纯以公司财务指标为解释变量进行模型估计。本文运用我国上市公司的财务报表数据,在财务数据的基础上加入公司治理和会计师事务所因素两类非财务信息变量,采用Logistic回归方法对审计意见进行预测研究。本文选取2003—2005年收到非标准审计意见的178家制造业公司,根据资产规模、相同行业、1∶1配对原则,选取178家收到标准审计意见的公司与之组成研究样本。首先对17个财务指标进行因子分析,提取财务指标公因子后,使用Logistic回归方法分别构建了基于财务指标的审计意见预测模型和加入非财务信息指标的综合预测模型,最后通过回判分析结果表明,综合预测模型的预测能力优于基于财务指标的审计意见预测模型,非财务指标对于审计意见类型也具有一定的预测能力。
[Abstract]:The CPA's audit opinion on the information quality of the listed company's financial report is made as a "third person" independent of the listed company and the stakeholders. The types of opinions of audit reports are valued by all stakeholders in the company and can have a significant impact on their decision-making behavior, therefore, It is of practical significance to predict the types of audit opinions of listed companies in some appropriate way. Since 1980s, foreign researchers have begun to study the prediction of audit opinions, and domestic scholars have made considerable efforts in this field in recent years. However, most of the previous studies used corporate financial indicators as explanatory variables to estimate the model. This paper applies the financial statement data of listed companies in our country, adds two kinds of non-financial information variables, corporate governance and accounting firm factors, on the basis of financial data, and uses Logistic regression method to predict audit opinions. This paper selects 178 manufacturing companies that received non-standard audit opinions from 2003 to 2005. According to the asset size and 1: 1 pairing principle of the same industry, 178 companies receiving standard audit opinions are selected to form a research sample. Firstly, 17 financial indexes are analyzed by factor analysis, and then the Logistic regression method is used to construct the audit opinion forecasting model based on financial index and the comprehensive forecasting model with non-financial information index. Finally, the result shows that the forecasting ability of the comprehensive forecasting model is better than that of the audit opinion forecasting model based on the financial index, and the non-financial index has certain predictive ability for the type of audit opinion.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F239.6;F276.6;F224

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