管理者过度自信对自愿性盈利预测披露质量的影响

发布时间：2018-05-14 18:31

本文选题：管理者过度自信 + 自愿性盈利预测　；参考：《财经问题研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：本文从管理层自身特质对自愿性盈利预测披露质量的影响入手,融入行为金融学的"非理性人"假设并合理选择管理者过度自信变量,选取我国2008—2013年主板A股2 219家年度自愿发布盈利预测的上市公司作为研究样本,实证研究了上市公司管理者过度自信对自愿性盈利预测信息披露质量的影响。研究结果表明,管理者过度自信对自愿性盈利预测披露质量会产生重大影响,具体表现为过度自信的管理者会自愿发布更加频繁的盈利预测,同时发布盈利预测更加及时,但预测准确度会显著降低。该结果为证券市场的监管者提供了相应借鉴,同时为投资者进一步解读管理层自愿发布的预测信息提供了参考。
[Abstract]:Starting with the influence of management characteristics on the quality of voluntary profit prediction disclosure, this paper integrates the assumption of "irrational person" in behavioral finance and reasonably selects the variables of manager overconfidence. A total of 2,219 listed companies in China's main board A shares from 2008 to 2013 were selected as a sample to study the effect of managers' overconfidence on the disclosure quality of voluntary earnings forecast information. The results show that the overconfidence of managers will have a significant impact on the quality of disclosure of voluntary profit forecasts, which is manifested in that overconfident managers will voluntarily issue more frequent profit forecasts, and release profit forecasts more timely at the same time. But the accuracy of the prediction will be significantly reduced. The results provide a reference for the regulators of the securities market and for investors to further interpret the forecast information released voluntarily by the management.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学会计学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“管理层盈利预测信息披露的偏误动因与监管研究”(71302193) 教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目“我国货币政策目标的时变特征及其规则调整研究”(14YJC790023)
【分类号】：F275

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