基于财务指标的财务报告内部控制有效性识别

发布时间：2018-05-26 16:32

本文选题：财务报告内部控制 + 重大错报风险　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国政府于2008年6月发布了《企业内部控制基本规范》,并于2010年发布配套指引,确立了我国企业内部控制有效性的评价和财务报告内部控制的审计制度。目前国内外学者对财务报告内部控制的研究主要集中于在内控缺陷与有效性之间的关系,同时对内控缺陷披露的经济后果也有深入探讨,但对财务报告内部控制有效性的定量分析研究较少。同时现有内部控制有效性往往受制于成本与时间,其常见评估方法具有一定滞后性。本文回顾了财务报告内部控制的发展过程,从重大错报风险评估为出发点,通过财务指标与财务预警,财务指标与重大错报风险评估的研究,选取多个的维度指标并加以选择具有代表性的财务指标,建立合理有效模型。鉴于我国财务报告内部控制还处于发展初期,本文从重大错报风险概念出发选取财务审计报告意见作为财务内部控制是否有效分组依据。若财务报告为非标意见则意味着存在重大错报风险,而此类重大错报风险企业则意味着该公司的财务报告内部控制很可能失效,并以此为标准划分成两个样本组。本文以2013-2015年中国在沪深上市公司为样本,根据被出具的审计意见,选取被出具标准意见与出具非标意见的公司,进行1:4的配比,最后得到345家样本。依据文献研究选取财务指标作为模型研究的自变量,选择Logit模型作为研究的预测模型。首先,检验前述指标数据是否达到正态分布,验证两样本组间财务指标的变动性、差分变量存在显著性差别,因此可利用财务指标初步辨别财务报告内部控制是否有效;然后将符合条件指标考虑共线性后进行筛选,对筛选后指标进行条件逻辑回归;最后本文运用多变量分析的结果,挑选符合条件的指标建立预测模型,因为条件逻辑模型缺乏应用模型,为此模拟条件逻辑模型构建一般逻辑回归模型并进行分割点确定。通过研究得出以下结论:财务报告为非标意见则意味着存在重大错报风险,而此类重大错报风险企业则意味着该公司的财务报告内部控制很可能失效,而此类公司与其他企业间对比,财务指标的波动性、差分变量均存在显著性差别,因此利用此类差异可以有效识别财务报告内部控制有效性。本文的预测模型对研究样本有较好的拟合优度,在90%的保证度下,P值在低风险有效区[0,0.5]时,判断准确率为90.75%;在P值在(0.5,0.7)区间时为中等风险;P值在[0.7,1]区间时,准确率为90.00%。综上所述,本文验证上市公司财务指标的波动性与财务报告内部控制有效性间相关性,建立模型为各利益相关方提供对财务报告内部控制有效性便捷的初步识别方法,在现有财务报告内部控制评价方法基础上提供新的方法与思路。
[Abstract]:In June, 2008, our government issued the basic norms of Enterprise Internal Control, and in 2010 issued a complete set of guidelines, which established the evaluation of the effectiveness of internal control and the audit system of the internal control of financial reports in our country. At present, scholars at home and abroad mainly focus on the relationship between the internal control defects and the effectiveness of the internal control of financial reports, at the same time, the economic consequences of the disclosure of internal control defects are also deeply discussed. However, the quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of internal control of financial reports is less. At the same time, the effectiveness of existing internal control is often limited by cost and time. This paper reviews the development process of internal control of financial reports, starting from the risk assessment of material misstatement, through the study of financial indicators and financial early warning, financial indicators and risk assessment of material misstatement. The reasonable and effective model is established by selecting several dimension indexes and selecting representative financial indexes. In view of the fact that the internal control of financial report is still in the early stage of development, this paper selects the opinion of financial audit report as the effective grouping basis of financial internal control from the concept of material misstatement risk. If the financial report is not a standard opinion, it means that there is a risk of material misstatement, and this kind of material misstatement risk enterprise means that the internal control of the financial report of the company is likely to fail, and it can be divided into two groups according to this standard. This paper takes Chinese listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2013 to 2015 as samples. According to the audit opinions issued by them, the companies that are issued standard opinions and non-standard opinions are selected for 1:4 matching, and 345 samples are obtained. According to the literature study, the financial index is chosen as the independent variable of the model research, and the Logit model is chosen as the prediction model. First of all, test whether the above-mentioned index data reach normal distribution, verify the variability of financial indicators between the two groups, there are significant differences between the difference variables, so we can use the financial indicators to identify whether the internal control of financial reports is effective or not. Then, after the collinearity is considered, the conditional logic regression is carried out. Finally, the prediction model is established by selecting the suitable indexes by using the results of multivariate analysis. Because the conditional logic model lacks the application model, the general logic regression model is constructed and the segmentation point is determined for simulating the conditional logic model. The following conclusion is drawn from the study: the fact that the financial statement is non-standard means that there is a risk of material misstatement, and that such material misstatement means that the internal control of the company's financial report is likely to fail. Compared with other firms, there are significant differences in the volatility and differential variables of financial indicators between these companies and other firms. Therefore, the effectiveness of internal control of financial reports can be effectively identified by using these differences. The prediction model in this paper has a good goodness of fit for the study sample. At 90% assurance, the accuracy of P value is 90.75 in the low risk effective region [00.5], and the accuracy rate is 90.005 when P value is in the range of 0.50.7) and the middle risk P value is in the interval of [0.7 ~ (1)]. To sum up, this paper verifies the correlation between the volatility of financial indicators and the effectiveness of internal control of financial reports, and establishes a model for stakeholders to provide a preliminary identification method for the effectiveness of internal control of financial reports. On the basis of the existing internal control evaluation methods of financial reports, new methods and ideas are provided.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

【参考文献】