宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地扩展驱动力分析与情景模拟

发布时间：2017-12-27 21:15

本文关键词：宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地扩展驱动力分析与情景模拟　出处：《自然资源学报》2015年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：宁蒙沿黄地带属于中国西北干旱半干旱快速城市化地区,研究这一典型地区的城镇用地扩展对丰富城镇用地扩展机制的理论研究和提供相应政策建议具有理论和现实意义。论文利用Logistic回归分析2000—2005年城镇用地扩展的主要驱动力,计算城镇用地转换适宜度矩阵,结合CA-Markov模型模拟3种情景下城镇用地扩展趋势。结果表明:2000—2005年,城镇用地的主要来源是耕地,其次是草地及极少量农村居民点和工矿用地。对城镇用地变化影响最大的因素依次是邻域内城镇用地比重、年降水量、到2001年国道距离、到水域距离、到2001年省道距离以及到2000年土地利用中耕地、林地和草地的距离。一切照常情景下,2016年宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地总量约997 km2,主要分布在呼和浩特市区、包头市区等主要城市边缘;规划情景下,城镇用地规模达到1 525 km2,分布格局与一切照常情景类似;生态保护情景下,城镇用地规模总量达到1 480 km2,城镇用地沿交通轴扩展呈组团分布。由此得出主要结论:大城市边缘区和交通线是城镇用地发生的主要影响因素;通过总量控制的区域整体城镇用地规划可以优化区域整体城镇用地扩展格局。
[Abstract]:Ningxia and Mongolia along the yellow belt belong to the arid and semi-arid fast urbanization area in Northwest China. Studying the urban land expansion in this typical area has theoretical and practical significance for enriching the mechanism of urban land expansion and providing corresponding policy recommendations. This paper uses Logistic regression to analyze the main driving force of urban land expansion from 2000 to 2005, calculates the suitability matrix of urban land conversion, and simulates the expansion trend of urban land under 3 scenarios based on the CA-Markov model. The results showed that from 2000 to 2005, the main sources of urban land use were cultivated land, followed by grassland and a very small number of rural residential and industrial land. The most influential factors for urban land change are the proportion of urban land in the neighborhood, the annual precipitation, the distance to the national highway in 2001, the distance to the water area, the distance to the provincial road in 2001, and the distance from farmland to forest land and grassland in 2000. Bau, 2016 Ningmeng zone along Yellow River town with the total land of about 997 km2, mainly distributed in the main city of Hohhot City, Baotou city and other edge; Planning scenario, land use scale reached 1525 km2, the distribution pattern and similar business as usual; ecological protection scenario of urban land use scale reached 1480 km2, urban land expansion along the traffic axle of a group of distribution. The main conclusions are as follows: urban fringe area and traffic line are the main factors that influence the occurrence of urban land; the total urban land expansion plan can optimize the overall urban land expansion pattern through total volume control.
【作者单位】：安徽工业大学商学院;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41271556)
【分类号】：F299.23
【正文快照】： 宁蒙沿黄地带(包括宁夏回族自治区银川、石嘴山、吴忠、中卫,以及内蒙古自治区呼和浩特、包头、鄂尔多斯、乌海、巴彦淖尔共计9个地级行政区)属西北干旱荒漠中度人类活动地域1级生态经济地域下甘宁蒙黄河干流沿岸干旱半干旱农牧业与水电、煤炭资源开发型2级生态经济地区[1]。

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