利率变动对房地产市场的影响

发布时间：2018-01-01 18:03

本文关键词：利率变动对房地产市场的影响　出处：《南昌大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文采用理论与实证相结合的方法,立足于房地产具有消费品和投资品的两重特点,研究银行存贷款利率的调整对我国房地产业产生的影响。通过对上世纪九十年代末房改以来中国人民银行对我国国有银行的各类贷款利率的调整情况和我国房地产价格的走势进行分析,得出我国国有银行的贷款基准利率变动呈现出先下调后上调,利用货币政策的次数由较少使用到现在频繁的被运用在汇率调整中以及全国范围内房地产市场价格呈现逐年攀升的变化趋势。通过利率货币政策对房地产市场可能造成影响的理论分析,得出利率调整作为政府宏观调控的货币政策手段,对房地产市场的供求都会产生深远影响,并在供求原理的作用下对房地产市场价格带来变化。并且利用2005年至2013年的房地产价格和相对应利率的数据进行实证检验,实证结果显示,利率的调整会给开发商和购房者都带来很大影响，并对房地产价格造成影响,迫使房地产企业对房价作出相应调整。短期内的房价的变化与利率呈正相关关系,中长期房价的变化与利率呈负向相关关系,长,长期从紧的货币政策能够起到抑制房地产价格的快速上涨的作用,这也是我国利用利率政策进行调控的目标。尽管对利率进行调节可以造成房价的波动,但在我国房地产价格形成有着复杂的影响因素和利率这种货币工具本身的不完善,以及货币政策在作用于房地产市场时,对房价的调控具有一定的时间上的滞后性问题的存在。但不的不正视的是,在我国目的经济发展状况下,央行运用利率杠杆调控房价不能完全控制房市。在房价飞涨、房奴涌现的今天,除了依靠利率这样的货币工具,更需要国家更多职能部门、多种措施相结合,共同调控房地产价格。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the combination of theory and empirical method, based on the real estate has the dual characteristics of consumer goods and investment goods. This paper studies the influence of the adjustment of bank deposit and loan interest rate on the real estate industry of our country. Through the adjustment of various loan interest rates of the people's bank of china to the state-owned banks since the end of -10s, and the real estate of our country. The trend of production price is analyzed. It is concluded that the benchmark interest rate changes of the state-owned banks in China show a first cut and then an increase. The times of using monetary policy from less use to now are frequently used in exchange rate adjustment and the real estate market prices in the whole country show a rising trend year by year. Through the interest rate monetary policy, the real estate market can be affected by interest rate monetary policy. A theoretical analysis that can make an impact. It is concluded that the adjustment of interest rate as the monetary policy means of government macro-control will have a far-reaching impact on the supply and demand of the real estate market. And under the principle of supply and demand to the real estate market price changes. And using the 2005 to 2013 real estate prices and corresponding interest rates of the empirical test, the empirical results show. The adjustment of interest rate will have a great impact on both developers and buyers, and will have an impact on real estate prices, forcing real estate enterprises to make corresponding adjustments to house prices. The change of house prices in the short term has a positive correlation with interest rates. The long-term monetary policy can restrain the rapid rise of the real estate price, which is also the goal of our country to use the interest rate policy to regulate and control. Although adjusting the interest rate can cause the fluctuation of the house price, the formation of the real estate price in our country has complex influence factors and the imperfection of the monetary tool of interest rate itself. As well as monetary policy in the real estate market, the regulation of housing prices has a certain time lag problem, but do not face up to the fact that, in our country's objective economic development. The central bank can not completely control the housing market by using interest rate leverage to control the housing market. Today, when house prices are soaring and housing slaves emerge, in addition to relying on such monetary instruments as interest rates, the central bank needs more functional departments of the country and a combination of various measures. Jointly control real estate prices.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

【参考文献】