基于企业价值评估模型的我国资本市场有效性分析

发布时间：2018-01-02 01:34

本文关键词：基于企业价值评估模型的我国资本市场有效性分析　出处：《新疆财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：根据资本市场有效性理论可知，在一个充分有效的资本市场中，上市公司股票的价格是公司价值公允反映，，任何公司的股票价格与其自身内在价值的偏离是少有的。但这种均衡是一种较理想的状况，现实市场中的股票价格与公司内在价值永远处于一个动态的非均衡状态。由于资本市场提供企业所需的长期资金，不确定性因素较多，风险大，能否吸引投资者就在于市场能否公允反映企业价值。市场有效运作是证券产品合理定价的前提，也是优化资源配置和吸引投资者并给与合理回报的基础。有效市场认为市场中每种股票交易价格都应与其内在价值一致，因此本文从企业价值评估角度运用绝对估值方法对市场的有效性进行检验。通过将2006、2007、2008三年上市公司市值与评估市值进行线性回归分析发现拟合度极低，得出我国资本市场的有效性并不高。因此应当不断完善资本市场资源配置功能，加大我国资本市场的改革力度，努力提高上市公司经营效率并为股东创造价值，为完善资本市场建设,促进我国资本市场健康有序发展提供政策建议。
[Abstract]:According to the theory of capital market efficiency, in a fully effective capital market, the price of listed company stock is fair reflection of company value. The deviation between the stock price of any company and its intrinsic value is rare, but this equilibrium is an ideal condition. In the real market, the stock price and the intrinsic value of the company are always in a dynamic disequilibrium state. Because the capital market provides the long-term funds needed by the enterprise, there are many uncertain factors and great risks. Whether the market can attract investors depends on whether the market can fairly reflect the enterprise value. The effective operation of the market is the premise of reasonable pricing of securities products and the basis of optimizing the allocation of resources and attracting investors and giving a reasonable return. The efficient market thinks that every stock trading price in the market should be consistent with its intrinsic value, so this paper uses the absolute valuation method to test the effectiveness of the market from the angle of enterprise value evaluation. The linear regression analysis between market value and market value, a listed company in 2007 / 2008, showed that the fitting degree was very low. It is concluded that the efficiency of China's capital market is not high. Therefore, we should constantly improve the function of capital market resource allocation, strengthen the reform of our capital market, strive to improve the operating efficiency of listed companies and create value for shareholders. In order to improve the capital market construction and promote the healthy and orderly development of China's capital market to provide policy advice.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.5

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