中国城市土地市场和住房市场互动机制的微观研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 09:15

本文关键词：中国城市土地市场和住房市场互动机制的微观研究　出处：《清华大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土地市场和住房市场的互动关系一直是国内外理论和实践中关注的热点问题。近十年来，随着我国城市土地价格和住房价格持续快速上涨，相关争论愈发凸显。此外，在我国制度特点下，地方政府垄断土地供给并逐渐形成“土地财政”，对上述市场互动机制存在不可忽视的影响，，从而使得关于我国城市土地市场和住房市场互动关系的讨论更加复杂也更加必要。论文首先基于土地市场引致需求理论和住房市场价格发现理论，以价格为市场间信号，提出了微观层面理想条件下土地市场和住房市场互动机制的理论分析框架——“信号—预期”理论模型。在该理论模型框架下，论文重点分析了作为市场互动机制核心问题的土地价格和住房价格内生关系的成立条件和变化规律，同时分析了我国制度特点下政府行为对市场互动机制的影响途径和影响效果。基于“信号—预期”理论模型，论文对北京市土地市场和住房市场互动机制进行了系统的实证研究。实证研究结果验证了理论模型的正确性，分析了土地市场和住房市场相互影响的效果和变化规律，证明了政府行为对于市场运行存在的影响。论文研究的主要结论有：（1）微观层面上，住房价格通过引致需求渠道影响土地市场价格和开发时机，土地价格通过价格发现过程影响住房价格和交易概率，价格是两个市场互动机制的重要纽带；（2）土地价格和住房价格的内生关系及其均衡水平依条件成立和变化；（3）“土地财政”对住房市场价格发现过程存在强化影响；（4）北京市土地市场存在显著的垄断结构，住房市场存在显著的垄断竞争结构和非有效性；（5）北京市土地价格和住房价格存在显著的内生关系，“土地财政”进一步推高了住房价格；（6）北京市住房交易概率与周边土地价格正相关，但相关性受空间距离和市场趋势等因素影响；（7）周边住房价格上涨会提高政府的土地出让概率，但政府对土地市场的垄断将延缓土地出让时间。论文建议逐步推进房产税制度改革、地方政府债券制度建设和土地出让收入用途调整，并在条件适宜时推动城市土地管理职能的分散和下移。通过以上措施，优化地方政府收入结构、提高土地市场竞争程度、降低政府行为对城市土地市场和住房市场运行的干扰，进而促进城市土地市场和住房市场的良性互动，促进住房市场的平稳健康发展和城市化进程的顺利推进。
[Abstract]:The interaction between land market and housing market has been a hot issue in theory and practice at home and abroad. In recent ten years, with the rapid increase of urban land price and housing price in China. In addition, under the characteristics of our system, local governments monopolize land supply and gradually form "land finance", which can not be ignored on the above market interaction mechanism. Therefore, it is more complicated and necessary to discuss the interactive relationship between urban land market and housing market in China. Firstly, based on the land market induced demand theory and the housing market price discovery theory, the paper takes the price as the inter-market signal. In this paper, a theoretical analysis framework of the interaction mechanism between land market and housing market at the microcosmic level is proposed, which is called "signal-expectation" theoretical model under the framework of the theoretical model. The paper focuses on the analysis of the establishment conditions and changing laws of the endogenous relationship between land price and housing price, which is the core issue of the market interaction mechanism. At the same time, it analyzes the influence ways and effects of government behavior on the market interaction mechanism under the system characteristics of our country, which is based on the signal-expectation theory model. The paper makes a systematic and empirical study on the interaction mechanism between the land market and housing market in Beijing. The empirical results verify the correctness of the theoretical model. This paper analyzes the effect and changing law of the interaction between the land market and the housing market, and proves the influence of the government behavior on the operation of the market. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) on the micro level, the housing price influences the land market price and the development opportunity through the channel of induced demand. Land price affects housing price and transaction probability through the process of price discovery, and price is an important link between the two interactive market mechanisms. (2) the endogenous relationship between land price and housing price and its equilibrium level are established and changed according to the conditions; (3) "land finance" has a strong influence on the process of price discovery in housing market; (4) the land market in Beijing has a significant monopoly structure, and the housing market has a significant monopoly competition structure and non-effectiveness; (5) there is a significant endogenous relationship between land price and housing price in Beijing, and "land finance" further pushes up housing price; (6) the probability of housing transaction in Beijing is positively related to the price of surrounding land, but the correlation is affected by space distance and market trend. Higher peripheral housing prices will increase the government's probability of land transfer, but the government's monopoly on the land market will delay the land transfer time. The paper proposes to gradually promote the reform of the property tax system, the local government bond system construction and land transfer income use adjustment, and to promote the decentralization of urban land management functions and move down when the conditions are appropriate. Through the above measures. Optimize the structure of local government revenue, improve the degree of competition in the land market, reduce the interference of government behavior to the operation of urban land market and housing market, and then promote the benign interaction between urban land market and housing market. To promote the smooth and healthy development of the housing market and the smooth progress of urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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