中国商品住宅价格：影响因素与空间传导机制

发布时间：2018-01-04 02:11

本文关键词：中国商品住宅价格：影响因素与空间传导机制　出处：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的不断发展,城市化进程不断加深,房地产业得到了迅猛的发展,在国民经济增长中扮演着越来越重要的角色。作为房地产业繁荣与否的风向标,商品住宅价格的波动直接影响到国民经济的发展和居民生活水平的高低。首先,通过对1998-2010年全国各地区商品住宅平均价格分析发现可以把各地区商品住宅价格增长趋势划分为激增、先缓后快、稳定增长、剧烈波动和先波动后稳步增长五个类型。其次,研究表明,经济的增长极理论同样适用于房地产市场,商品住宅价格的增长是伴随着经济增长同时发生的,这就会在个别地区出现商品住宅价格的极化和扩散效应。而导致这两种效应的根本原因是资本和劳动要素在区域间的流动。同时,结合房地产的波纹效应理论,从人口、空间套利投机、财富转移和地区因素这四个方面讨论了商品住宅价格空间波动的影响因素和传导机制。对1998-2010年全国各地区省际商品住宅价格数据的空间探索分析发现我国各省市之间商品住宅价格确实存在一定的正空间相关性,并且在空间分布上呈现出集聚态势。最后,在中国省际商品住宅价格的空间面板模型的基础上,经过分析得到如下结论：人均GDP、失业率、人均可支配收入、人均商品住宅投资额以及土地成本都是影响区域间商品住宅价格的波动的主要因素,而失业率的影响效应最大,说明了劳动要素在区域间的流动会在很大程度上影响商品住宅价格的变化。在模型的拟合度上,空间误差模型要优于空间滞后模型,这说明我国各地区商品住宅价格在空间上受到不可观测因素的影响很大,表明了投机行为和资本的流动对商品住宅价格的影响程度。此外,进一步着眼于局部地区,建立以京津冀地区各城市面板数据为基础的空间面板误差模型,研究结果发现,在局部地区,政府行为对区域间商品住宅价格的波动会产生较大影响。
[Abstract]:With the development of our country's economy and the deepening of urbanization, the real estate industry has been developing rapidly and playing a more and more important role in the national economic growth. The fluctuation of commodity housing price directly affects the development of national economy and the living standard of residents. First of all, through the analysis of the average prices of commodity housing in various regions of the country from 1998 to 2010, we find that the growth trend of commodity housing prices in various regions can be divided into sharp increase, first slow and then rapid, stable growth. Violent fluctuations and first fluctuations followed by steady growth of five types. Secondly, the study shows that the economic growth pole theory is also applicable to the real estate market, the growth of commodity housing prices is accompanied by economic growth at the same time. This will lead to the polarization and diffusion effects of commodity housing prices in individual regions, and the fundamental cause of these two effects is the flow of capital and labor elements between regions. At the same time, the corrugated effect theory of real estate is combined. Arbitrage from population, space. This paper discusses the influence factors and transmission mechanism of the spatial fluctuation of commodity housing price from the four aspects of wealth transfer and regional factors. The Spatial Exploration of Inter-provincial Commodity Housing Price data in China from 1998 to 2010. It is found that there is a positive spatial correlation between commodity housing prices between provinces and cities in China. And in the spatial distribution showed a situation of agglomeration. Finally, based on the spatial panel model of interprovincial commodity housing prices in China, the following conclusions are obtained: per capita GDP, unemployment rate, per capita disposable income. The per capita commodity housing investment and land cost are the main factors that affect the fluctuation of the commodity housing price, while the unemployment rate has the biggest effect. It shows that the flow of labor elements between regions will greatly affect the change of commodity housing prices. In terms of the fitting degree of the model, the spatial error model is better than the spatial lag model. This shows that commodity housing prices in various regions of China are greatly affected by non-observable factors in space, indicating the impact of speculative behavior and capital flows on commodity housing prices. Further focusing on the local area, the spatial panel error model based on the data of each city panel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is established, and the results show that the model is in the local area. Government behavior will have a greater impact on regional commodity housing price fluctuations.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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