基于现金流贴现模型的浦发银行价值评估

发布时间：2018-01-06 00:33

本文关键词：基于现金流贴现模型的浦发银行价值评估　出处：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国股票市场连连遭遇熊市,自2008年下半年大面积震荡下跌开始至今,国内证券市场一片低迷,而这一现象意味着国内大量上市企业的企业价值严重下降。在诸多种类的股票中银行股向来以运行平稳,涨跌幅度较小而著称,但许多商业银行的股价在这一轮股市下跌中也未能幸免,那么,从理论上来讲,这些银行自身的企业真实价值也应与股市走向相同而呈现下跌趋势。但令广大投资者以及上市公司领导人无法理解的是,自2010年始至2012年之间我国东北地区的各大商业银行不但没有呈现出与股价相符的颓势,反倒是一片红红火火。仅以沈阳为例,许多股份制商业银行诸如招商银行,民生银行,华夏银行,浦发银行等纷纷在辽宁省内周边地区如辽阳,抚顺,铁岭,本溪等城市成立了多家分支机构,这种扩张的幅度与低迷的股市呈现出了两种截然相反的运行趋势。本文以上海浦东发展银行股份有限公司近5年以来的一些真实经营数据为理论依据,以现金流贴现模型的评估形式为核心,对于浦发银行的真实企业价值进行了客观而详尽的评析,并据此探讨浦发银行股价的波动与其真实银行价值涨跌之间的联系与反差,希望能够为广大的投资者以及金融机构管理人员提供一份具备一定参考价值的案例以供研究,为我国股份制商业银行的健康发展做出一份贡献。通常来讲,对于企业价值的评估离不开对于其负债资本成本的计算。但商业银行的负债资金成本与一般企业的负债资金成本往往是不同的,这是因为股份制商业银行与绝大多数上市企业在市场经济中扮演的角色有所不同,其对于负债资产的使用运营方式有所不同,其主要资金来源有所不同,其负债资产的结构构成也有着本质上的差异。因此本文采用现金流贴现评估这一方法来对上海浦东发展银行进行企业价值评估以求评估结果的客观性和准确性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with China's stock market repeatedly hit the market, since the second half of 2008 a large area tumbled since the start of the domestic stock market downturn, and this phenomenon implies a serious decline in a large number of domestic listed enterprise value. In many types of stock in bank stocks has always been a smooth operation, small change is known however, many commercial banks in this round of price decline was not spared, so, theoretically speaking, the true value of the enterprise bank itself should also be the same with the direction of the stock market showed a downward trend.
But the majority of investors and the listed company leaders do not understand is, since the beginning of 2010 to 2012 in the northeast of China's major commercial banks not only showed no consistent with stock price decline, but is a booming. Only by taking Shenyang as an example, many joint-stock commercial banks such as China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank, China the bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank have in Liaoning province surrounding areas such as Liaoyang, Fushun, Tieling, Benxi and other city set up branches, the expansion of the amplitude and the downturn in the stock market showed two opposite operation trend.
In this paper, some real operation data of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Limited by Share Ltd for nearly 5 years as the theory basis, the discounted cash flow model to evaluate the form as the core, the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank real enterprise value evaluates objectively and fully, and tries to contact with the contrast between the Pudong Development Bank stock price volatility and the real value of the bank price the hope can provide a certain reference value for the case study for the majority of investors and financial institutions management personnel, make a contribution for the healthy development of China's joint-stock commercial banks.
Generally speaking, to assess the value of enterprises cannot do without the calculation of the debt capital cost. But the commercial bank's cost of debt capital and general corporate debt financing cost is often different, this is because the joint-stock commercial banks and the majority of Listed Companies in the market economy plays different roles, for its liabilities the use of assets operation in different ways, the main source of funds is different, the structure of assets and liabilities which are essentially different. So this paper uses the discounted cash flow method to assess the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank to assess enterprise value to the objectivity and accuracy of evaluation results.

【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.33;F832.51

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