我国地方经济增长对房地产业过度依赖探究

发布时间：2018-01-06 12:01

本文关键词：我国地方经济增长对房地产业过度依赖探究　出处：《江西师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产业对国民经济发展的其他产业的带动性强、辐射面广，已经成为我国经济的基础性、主导性和支柱性产业。上世纪70年代美国房地产泡沫的破灭、90年代初日本房地产泡沫破灭后繁华景气的终结，90年代中后期以东亚国家房地产泡沫破灭和2008年美国房地产泡沫破灭引发的次贷危机为突出特征的金融危机给了我们警醒，房地产业也在我国如火如荼的发展。本论文梳理了国内外关于房地产业发展的有关理论，对于房地产周期、房地产泡沫和房地产与经济增长之间的互动关系进行了阐述。收集统计了湖北省武汉市1997-2010年房地产产值和GDP数据，采用计量模型证明了地方房地产业发展与经济增长之间存在相互促进的关系，房地产业的发展有力的推动了地方经济的增长。但是由于我国特殊的历史和国情，，房地产业发展过程中出现了种种问题，如“土地财政”“房价畸高”，甚至出现了地方经济过度依赖房地产业发展的局面。在驱动经济发展的三架马车中，投资所占的比重过大，拉动经济增长的引擎已经出现了失调的迹象。地方经济发展过度依赖房地产业发展容易导致对其他产业的挤出效应、政府腐败、金融风险增加等，给我国经济发展埋下隐患。分析我国房地产业发展是否过热，是否存在地方经济发展过度依赖房地产业发展是很有必要的，针对我国房地产业发展不完善，地方经济过度依赖房地产业发展的现状提出相应的对策建议，如提出完善房地产市场、健全房地产产业法规体系、规范金融市场和大力发展其他产业等，对保障我国房地产业发展与国民经济发展协调健康可持续发展大有益处。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry led to other industries in the national economy is strong and wide, has become the basis of China's economy, leading and pillar industry. The real estate bubble burst in 70s of the last century, the end of 90s at the beginning of the Japanese real estate bubble burst after rising prosperity, in late 90s in East Asian countries the real estate bubble burst in 2008 and the American real estate bubble burst triggered by the subprime crisis as a prominent feature of the financial crisis gave us a wake-up call, real estate industry development in our country like a raging fire.
This paper reviews the relevant theories about the development of the real estate industry, the real estate cycle, the interactive relationship between real estate bubble and real estate and economic growth are expounded. Collected in Hubei province Wuhan city 1997-2010 years of real estate value and GDP data, using econometric models proved that there exists a relation of mutual promotion between the local real estate industry development and economic growth, the development of the real estate industry has promoted the growth of the local economy. But because of the history and the special situation of our country, there are all sorts of problems in real estate development process, such as "land finance" and "the price is extremely high, even the local economy excessive reliance on the real estate the industrial development situation. In the three carriage drives economic development, the proportion of investment is too large, a driving engine of economic growth has emerged signs of disorder.
The development of local economy over reliance on real estate development easily lead to crowding out effect on other industries, government corruption, financial risks, to China's economic development lay hidden. Analysis of China's real estate development is overheating, the existence of local economic development, over reliance on real estate development is very necessary, for me the development of real estate industry is not perfect, put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions of the present situation of local economic dependence on the real estate development, such as the improvement of the real estate market, the real estate industry and improve the system of laws and regulations, standardize the financial market and the vigorous development of other industries, to ensure good coordination of healthy and sustainable development of China's real estate industry and the national development the development of economy.

【学位授予单位】：江西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F299.27

【参考文献】