利率市场化进程中的利率调控机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 02:03

本文关键词：利率市场化进程中的利率调控机制研究　出处：《安徽财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：利率市场化和利率调控是全球关注的利率问题,近些年在中国备受关注。我国利率市场化改革尚未完成,市场利率与管制利率并存一定程度上降低了利率调控的整体效果。现有的文献多是研究利率市场化问题,明确提出在利率市场化进程中构建利率调控机制的尚不多见,关于利率调控机制框架的研究更少。本文以利率调控为主线,通过回顾近年来利率调控的相关文献和理论并结合利率政策在我国的发展,为利率调控的实证分析奠定理论和现实基础。分别选择2005.1-2012.6和2007.1-2012.6的月度金融数据,使用协整检验、脉冲响应和方差分解分析考察管制利率和市场利率的调控效果,实证结果表明：两种利率与消费、投资、产出和物价指标的作用方向相同但大小不同,均对产出指标影响最小；管制利率与四个经济变量均不存在长期稳定关系,市场利率仅与投资存在长期稳定关系；管制利率对消费和物价的影响强于市场利率但不持久,市场利率对投资影响大且可持续；市场利率综合调控效果优于管制利率但影响仍较弱,而利率调控机制缺失正是市场利率调控效果不佳的重要原因。在此基础上,进一步指出建立利率调控机制的必要性,并从货币市场基准利率选择、利率走廊调控模式运用、利率传导机制完善、评价指标体系建立及中央银行作用强化五方面提出建立利率调控机制框架的构想。
[Abstract]:Interest rate marketization and interest rate regulation is a global interest rate issue, which has attracted much attention in China in recent years. China's interest rate marketization reform has not yet been completed. The coexistence of market interest rate and regulated interest rate reduces the overall effect of interest rate regulation to a certain extent. In the process of interest rate marketization, there are few researches on the framework of interest rate regulation and control mechanism. This article regards the interest rate regulation as the main line, through reviewing the related literature and theory of interest rate regulation in recent years and combining the development of interest rate policy in our country. To lay a theoretical and practical basis for the empirical analysis of interest rate regulation. Choose the monthly financial data of 2005.1-2012.6 and 2007.1-2012.6, using cointegration test. Impulse response and variance decomposition analysis are used to investigate the regulatory effect of regulated interest rate and market interest rate. The empirical results show that the direction of the two interest rates is the same as that of consumption, investment, output and price index, but the magnitude is different. All of them have the least influence on the output index; There is no long-term stable relationship between the regulated interest rate and the four economic variables, while the market interest rate only has a long-term stable relationship with the investment. The influence of regulated interest rate on consumption and price is stronger than that on market interest rate but it is not lasting. Market interest rate has great influence on investment and is sustainable. The market interest rate comprehensive regulation effect is better than the regulation interest rate but the influence is still weak, and the lack of the interest rate regulation mechanism is the important reason for the market interest rate regulation effect is not good. On this basis. Further points out the necessity of establishing the interest rate regulation mechanism, and from the money market benchmark interest rate choice, the interest rate corridor control mode application, the interest rate transmission mechanism consummates. The establishment of evaluation index system and the strengthening of the role of central bank put forward the conception of establishing the framework of interest rate regulation mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.5

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