基于产业结构视角的住房相对价格研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 06:20

本文关键词：基于产业结构视角的住房相对价格研究　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“住”本属于人类最基本的需求层次，但是随着社会经济的发展，城市化进程的深入，城市居民人口数量增加，对住房的需求也在持续增长。在旺盛的住房需求带动下，住宅业的产业规模也越来越大。而在住房市场中，住房是交易的商品，住房价格受市场供应和需求的影响而发生波动。为了保持住房价格稳定，促进住宅业健康发展，依据市场需求保持住房合理的供应水平，不仅可以减少因住房价格剧烈波动而引发的市场投机行为，减少热钱流动，也可以降低一些实体产业因涉足住房市场使大量资金流出本行业而引发的行业经营风险。因此，研究住房市场的需求情况，确定住房市场的合理住房价格水平，对于引导城镇居民健康的住房消费，缓解城镇住房价格波动，促进住房市场健康持续发展都将起到积极的意义。本文首先阐述了选题背景以及研究方向，即基于产业结构视角的住房相对价格研究，接着在对国内外关于住房价格研究的相关文献、资料进行梳理的基础上，概述了产业结构理论与住房价格理论，提出了住房相对价格的概念，并对产业与住房的关系进行了分析。其次，分析了当前住房市场中住房供给与需求偏离的成因和住房价格的影响因素，理清产业结构对住房价格的影响机制，并依据影响机制构建了基于产业结构视角的住房需求评价指标体系。然后结合西安市的数据资料，使用层次分析的方法计算出基于产业结构视角的西安市住房需求水平，，以此推算出西安市住房的相对价格，并对其进行比较分析。接着使用灰色预测模型预测了西安市未来一段时期的住房需求水平，并做了价格分析。最后，根据预测及分析结果，从保障城市居民住房需求及抑制住房过度投资的角度，对西安市未来住房市场的合理发展提出了建议：通过完善住房市场供给结构、调整住房市场供需偏差、改进住房交易信息管理、提高住房再次交易税费、改变住房消费观念来促进西安市住房价格的合理发展。
[Abstract]:"living" belongs to the most basic level of human needs, but with the development of social economy and the deepening of urbanization, the number of urban residents increases. The demand for housing is also growing. Driven by strong demand for housing, the housing industry is growing in size. In the housing market, housing is a traded commodity. Housing prices fluctuate under the influence of market supply and demand. In order to keep housing prices stable and promote the healthy development of housing industry, the reasonable supply level of housing is maintained according to market demand. It can not only reduce the market speculation caused by the sharp fluctuations in housing prices, but also reduce the flow of hot money. It can also reduce the risk of some real industries because of getting involved in the housing market to make a lot of money out of the industry. Therefore, study the demand of the housing market and determine the reasonable housing price level. It will play a positive role in guiding the healthy housing consumption of urban residents, alleviating the fluctuation of housing price in cities and towns, and promoting the healthy and sustainable development of housing market. This paper first describes the background and research direction, that is, based on the perspective of the industrial structure of the study of relative housing prices, and then on the basis of domestic and foreign research on housing prices related literature, data on the basis of combing. This paper summarizes the theory of industrial structure and housing price, puts forward the concept of relative housing price, and analyzes the relationship between industry and housing. This paper analyzes the causes of housing supply and demand deviation and the influencing factors of housing price in the current housing market, and clarifies the influence mechanism of industrial structure on housing price. And based on the impact mechanism of housing demand evaluation index system based on the perspective of industrial structure, and then combined with Xi'an data. The level of housing demand in Xi'an based on industrial structure is calculated by the method of AHP, and the relative price of housing in Xi'an is calculated. Then the grey forecast model is used to predict the housing demand level in Xi'an for a period of time, and the price analysis is done. Finally, according to the forecast and analysis results. From the angle of ensuring the housing demand of urban residents and restraining housing overinvestment, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the reasonable development of housing market in Xi'an: through perfecting the supply structure of housing market, adjusting the deviation between supply and demand of housing market. To promote the reasonable development of housing price in Xi'an, we should improve the management of housing transaction information, raise the tax and fee of housing re-transaction, and change the concept of housing consumption.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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