我国房地产市场泡沫研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 09:39

本文关键词： 房地产泡沫评价指标成因对策　出处：《江西财经大学》2009年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 1998年以来,随着住房制度改革的有力推进,我国房地产进入新的一轮景气周期,房地产市场发展迅猛,成为国民经济的支柱产业,而房地产市场上的商品房价格也一直处在一个高速上涨的通道之中。为了促进房地产业稳定的发展,中央出台了一系列调控政策来防止房地产泡沫的产生,但房价依然一路飙升。尽管在2008年我国受到了金融危机的影响,房价一度出现小幅下降,但时隔不久,进入2009年,房地产市场又恢复了以往的火爆场面,“房价过高”、“房价超过老百姓承受能力”的声音不绝于耳,高房价一时间成为社会关注的焦点,房地产市场是否健康,是否存在房地产泡沫也成为社会各界的热点话题。在此背景下,本文首先从房地产及房地产泡沫的相关原理入手,在借鉴国内外相关研究成果和经验的基础上,分析房地产泡沫形成的原因及危害。再从我国房地产市场的投资、供给、需求、交易情况及房地产企业资金来源等方面分析了我国房地产市场的运行现状,揭示了我国当前房地产市场存在投资过热、房价过高、空置面积过高、对银行依赖性高等现象;进而通过理论联系实际的分析,根据采集的数据,运用国内外常用的指标,包括房价收入比、房价与租金的同步率、空置率、房地产贷款增长与总贷款总额增长的同步率、真实需求与投机需求、房价指数与居民消费价格指数的相对变化和房地产业的利润率等这些指标判断,得出我国房地产市场存在较大泡沫的结论;在此基础上从房地产开发商、购房者、政府和商业银行的多元角度,对我国房地产泡沫的产生原因进行分析,得出泡沫是由开发商的逐利行为、政府的推波助澜、购房者的不理性以及商业银行的信贷支持共同促成的结论;最后在此基础上提出加强金融监管、改革土地出让制度、建立完善的房地产信息系统、改革房地产税收制度、拓宽居民投资渠道以及加快保障性住房建设等政策措施,以抑制我国房地产泡沫的进一步扩张。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, with the strong promotion of housing system reform, China's real estate has entered a new cycle of prosperity. The real estate market has developed rapidly and become the pillar industry of the national economy. In order to promote the stable development of real estate, the central government has issued a series of control policies to prevent the emergence of real estate bubble. But house prices are still soaring. Although in 2008 our country was affected by the financial crisis, there was a small decline in house prices, but soon into 2009. The real estate market has resumed the previous hot scenes, "housing prices are too high", "housing prices exceed the affordability of ordinary people," the voice of the ears, high prices for a time become the focus of social attention. Whether the real estate market is healthy, whether there is a real estate bubble has also become a hot topic. In this context, this paper first from the real estate and the real estate bubble related principles, in reference to domestic and foreign related research results and experience on the basis. From the aspects of investment, supply, demand, transaction situation and capital source of real estate enterprises, this paper analyzes the operation status of real estate market in China. It is revealed that the current real estate market in China is overheated, housing prices are too high, vacant areas are too high and dependence on banks is high. Then through the theoretical and practical analysis, according to the collected data, the use of common indicators at home and abroad, including housing income ratio, housing and rent synchronization rate, vacancy rate. The real estate loan growth and total loan growth rate, real demand and speculative demand, the relative changes of house price index and consumer price index and the real estate industry profit margin and so on. The conclusion that there is a large bubble in China's real estate market; On this basis, from the real estate developers, buyers, government and commercial banks of multiple perspectives, the causes of the real estate bubble in China are analyzed, and it is concluded that the bubble is by the developers' profit-seeking behavior. The conclusion of the government, the irrational property buyers and the credit support of commercial banks; Finally, on this basis, it proposes to strengthen financial supervision, reform the land transfer system, establish a perfect real estate information system, and reform the real estate tax system. In order to restrain the further expansion of China's real estate bubble, we should broaden the investment channels of residents and speed up the construction of affordable housing.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F293.3

【引证文献】