我国房地产业与宏观经济作用机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 22:08

本文关键词： 宏观经济房地产行业 VAR模型因果检验动态影响　出处：《山东大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产行业与宏观经济的相互影响是通过某些变量进行传导的,解释这一传导机制以及传导变量的作用程度有助于提高房地产行业参与者的应变能力。从微观层面上,个体购房者能够依据国家对房地产市场的宏观调控政策及时调整购买行为,选择适当的时机进行购买或销售。从宏观层面上,研究房地产业与宏观经济的作用机制是研究房地产业发展战略,也是研究国民经济规划的需要,同时该研究能够为政府的宏观调控提供参考性依据,为政府适时调整房地产业乃至国民经济并使其持续健康发展提供有效的理论依据。文章首先建立宏观经济与房地产行业作用机制的概念模型,在概念模型的基础上通过采集我国宏观经济季度数据与房地产业季度数据,分别建立向量白回归(VAR)模型,并运用Granger因果分析、脉冲响应函数及方差分解方法,研究宏观经济变量与房地产业变量的相互作用过程。研究结论包括：国内贷款额在研究宏观经济与房地产业作用机制的过程中起到承前启后的作用；滞后效应的存在加剧了宏观经济与房地产业相互作用的复杂程度；货币政策对房价的调控效果并不理想：房价波动以及房地产开发投资额的多寡均缺乏宏观经济基本面的支撑；房价的波动并不以有效需求为支撑；房地产开发投资额能够在当期迅速推动GDP增长,但推动作用不具备可持续性；货币供应量的波动较多地受到金融市场的影响,而房地产业指标对货币供应量波动的影响程度较小；CPI指数自身具有较大的延续性,房地产因素对CPI指数的影响并不十分显著。
[Abstract]:The interaction between the real estate industry and the macro economy is conducted by some variables. Explaining this conduction mechanism and the degree of action of conduction variables can help to improve the ability of real estate industry participants to adapt. Individual buyers can adjust their purchase behavior timely according to the state's macro-control policy to the real estate market and choose the right time to purchase or sell from the macro level. To study the mechanism of real estate industry and macro economy is not only to study the development strategy of real estate industry, but also to study the needs of national economic planning. At the same time, the study can provide a reference for the government's macro-control. It provides an effective theoretical basis for the government to adjust the real estate industry and the national economy and make it develop healthily. Firstly, the paper establishes the conceptual model of the mechanism of macroeconomic and real estate industry, and collects the quarterly data of macroeconomic and real estate industry on the basis of the conceptual model. The vector white regression model is established, and the interaction process between macroeconomic variables and real estate variables is studied by using Granger causality analysis, impulse response function and variance decomposition method. The conclusions are as follows: the amount of domestic loan plays a role of connecting the past and the future in the process of studying the mechanism of macroeconomic and real estate industry; The existence of lag effect intensifies the complexity of the interaction between macro economy and real estate industry. The effect of monetary policy on housing price is not ideal: the fluctuation of house price and the amount of investment in real estate development lack the support of macroeconomic fundamentals; The fluctuation of house price is not supported by effective demand; Investment in real estate development can rapidly promote the growth of GDP in the current period, but the role of promotion is not sustainable; The fluctuation of money supply is mostly affected by the financial market, but the real estate index has little influence on the fluctuation of money supply. CPI index itself has a greater continuity, real estate factors on the CPI index is not very significant.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F124

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