证券分析师对国内上市公司盈利预测误差研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 05:51

本文关键词： 证券分析师上市公司盈利预测误差　出处：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国证券市场虽历经近20年的发展,但仍处于“弱式有效市场”之中,对于中小投资者更是如此。多数中小投资者因缺乏有效信息和专业知识,他们对上市公司的分析更多依赖于证券分析师的业绩预测。由于证券分析师具有分析能力优势以及信息渠道优势,他们的预测结果往往成为许多中小投资者的决策依据,尤其随着近几年国内宏观经济的大幅波动,越来越多的中小投资者关注他们的预测分析。那么,专业分析人员的预测结果可靠吗?他们预测的误差有多大?他们的预测是否存在诱导行为?对于这些问题,目前国内鲜有学者进行系统研究,相关研究仅局限于个别行业和较短的时间跨度,这使得其研究结论缺乏实质性指导意义。基于上述背景,本研究通过对以往文献的系统梳理,确定了盈利预测误差的度量标准,并历经两个多月的时间从国泰安数据库(CSMAR)、长城证券软件、国家统计局网站、中国证券业协会网站中收集了2007-2011年证券分析师对十大行业上市公司当年上半年的盈利预测数据,运用统计软件EXCEL和EViews6.0对这些盈利预测误差进行了系统分析,在此基础上探讨影响各行业预测误差差异的原因,从而为中小投资者进行合理的投资决策提供必要的指导。本研究结论主要包括以下几点：(1)证券分析师的盈利预测关注度主要集中于钢铁业、银行业、房地产业等市值大的行业,而对农业等市值较小的行业的关注度明显偏低；(2)宏观经济形势会影响证券分析师对上市公司的盈利预测误差,经济形势较好的年份的预测误差明显低于不好的年份；(3)证券分析师对不同行业的预测误差具有-定的差异性,其中,银行业、公路管理及养护业的盈利预测更准确,而对钢铁业、电力生产业、汽车制造业的预测误差波动幅度较大；(4)参股券商的预测从总体上要比同公司其他非参股券商的更准确,但与其对同行业其它非参股公司的预测并没有明显的差异。本研究的创新点主要体现在三个方面：(1)在研究内容上深入分析近五年来证券分析师对我国上市公司盈利预测误差情况,丰富了我国专业分析人员对上市公司盈利预测的研究；(2)系统研究了证券分析师对不同行业的盈利预测误差,从而在一定程度上填补了国内对证券分析师盈利预测行业差异研究的空白；(3)在度量证券分析师对上市公司进行的盈利预测误差标准上首次加入了股权的指标,排除了因股权变动而造成了非人为预测误差。尽管本研究进行了大量数据搜集和分析,但仍存在一些局限性：(1)本研究并未选取我国所有的上市公司作为样本,只是选取其中具有代表性的10个行业以及每个行业中规模最大的前10家公司；(2)由于数据收集困难,本研究很难搜集过去20年的预测数据,而只选择2007-2011年期间五年预测数据。这些一定程度上会影响研究结论的准确性。
[Abstract]:Although China's securities market has been developing for nearly 20 years, it is still in the "weak efficient market", especially for the small and medium-sized investors, most of whom lack effective information and professional knowledge. Their analysis of listed companies depends more on the performance forecasts of securities analysts, who have the advantage of analytical ability and information channel. Their prediction results often become the basis for many small and medium-sized investors to make decisions, especially with the domestic macroeconomic fluctuations in recent years, more and more small and medium-sized investors pay attention to their prediction and analysis. Are professional analysts' predictions reliable? How much error are they predicting? Does their prediction have induced behavior? At present, few domestic scholars do systematic research on these problems, and the related research is limited to individual industries and a short time span, which makes the research conclusions lack of substantive significance. Based on the above background, this study through a systematic review of previous literature, determine the measurement of profit prediction error, and after more than two months from the Cathay Pacific database CSMAR). The Great Wall Securities Software, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, and the website of the China Securities Association collected profit forecasts for the first half of the year from 2007 to 2011. This paper makes a systematic analysis of these profit prediction errors by using statistical software EXCEL and EViews6.0, and then discusses the reasons that affect the difference of forecast errors in various industries. So as to provide necessary guidance for small and medium investors to make reasonable investment decisions. The main conclusions of this study include the following points: 1) the focus of earnings forecast of securities analysts is mainly focused on the steel industry, banking, real estate and other big industries such as market value. But to the agriculture and so on market value small industry's attention degree is obviously low; (2) the macroeconomic situation will affect the profit forecast error of the securities analysts, and the forecast error in the year of better economic situation is obviously lower than that in the bad year; (3) the forecast error of securities analysts to different industries has definite difference, among them, the profit forecast of banking, highway management and maintenance industry is more accurate, but to steel industry and electric power industry. The prediction error of automobile manufacturing industry fluctuates greatly; 4) the forecast of stockholders is more accurate than that of other non-equity firms, but there is no obvious difference between the forecast of other non-equity companies in the same industry and that of other non-equity companies in the same industry. The innovation of this study is mainly reflected in three aspects: 1) in the content of the research in-depth analysis of the recent five years securities analysts on the earnings forecast error of listed companies in China. It enriches the research on earnings forecast of listed companies by professional analysts in our country. (2) this paper systematically studies the profit forecast error of securities analysts to different industries, thus filling the gap of domestic research on the industry difference of securities analysts' profit forecast to some extent; For the first time, the index of equity is added to measure the error standard of stock analysts' earnings forecast to listed companies, which excludes the non-artificial forecast error caused by the change of stock rights. Although this study has conducted a lot of data collection and analysis, there are still some limitations in this study. Only select the representative of 10 industries and each industry in the largest 10 companies; 2) due to data collection difficulties, it is difficult for this study to collect forecast data for the past 20 years. Only five-year projections for the period 2007-2011 were selected, which in part affected the accuracy of the study's findings.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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