城市化与住房市场的现状及趋势分析

发布时间：2018-01-24 05:33

本文关键词： 城市化住房市场现状分析趋势预测　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市化是指农业人口转化为城市人口、农村地域转化为城市地域、农业活动转化为非农业活动的过程。随着我国城市经济水平的发展提高,农村人口逐渐向城市地区迁移,农村人口的地区迁移使得城镇人口在总人口中所占比重不断增加。一方面住房作为居民衣食住行四大基本需求之一,城镇人口的增加势必会对住房需求与住房价格产生正向影响,因此城市化水平的提高也将给城镇住房市场带来广阔的发展空间。另一方面随着城市化进程的发展,城市基础设施建设、资源承载能力、医疗卫生交通等等都将成为社会关注的焦点问题,城市化水平的提高对城市可持续发展提出了更高的要求。地区经济发展的不平衡以及城乡区域发展的差异使得农村人口向城市地区迁移,城市人口数量逐年增加。城市人口的增多加大了对住房的需求,也推高了城市房价,因此本文将关注点放在城市化水平与城市住房市场。文章内容在于分析我国城市化水平的发展变化,在城市化过程中所表现出的特点及存在的问题,探讨城市化水平与城市住房市场的影响关系,并对城市化水平的发展以及住房市场的变化进行预测分析。由于住房市场可以分为住房价格与住房需求两个属性,因此文章对住房市场表现进行阐述时,从住房销售价格与住房销售量两个方面入手。首先本文从相关理论分析城市化水平发展对住房市场的影响,探讨其影响机制。其次分析我国整体目前城市化水平发展现状以及存在的问题,剖析住房市场的现状以及变化。在实证分析方面,选取1998—2011年我国23个省、市、自治区面板数据,对城市化水平与住房销售价格、住房销售量进行变系数面板模型估计,此外还探讨住房市场对城市化发展的正反两个方面的影响。再次利用第五次人口普查数据与第六次人口普查数据,根据城乡增长差异率预测今后我国整体及各地区城市化水平的变化,并利用城市化水平预测值对住房销售量与住房销售价格进行预测。最后根据本文研究内容与研究结论提出相关政策建议。本文研究结果表明目前我国整体城市化水平发展处于城市化发展三阶段模型中的快速城市化发展阶段,在未来一段时间内仍将处于该阶段。实证分析结果表明城市化水平的提高加大了城市居民对城市住房需求,对住房销售量具有正向促进作用,这也使得住房平均销售价格进一步提高,城市化发展对住房市场具有显著的促进作用,但是不同地区之间城市化水平对住房市场影响程度不同。同时面板模型回归估计结果表明宏观经济形势变量对住房销售量具有显著影响,但是对住房销售价格影响不显著,而这可能是来源于房地产开发商在经济发展不景气时为了避免住房开发项目的亏损,宁愿降低当年住房销售量也不愿意降低住房销售价格所致。从城市化水平预测结果来看,到2020年我国整体城市化水平将达到61.41%,到2028年整体城市化水平将突破70%①,进入到城市化发展的第三阶段。住房市场预测结果表明城市住房销售价格与住房销售量由于城镇居民住房刚性需求的旺盛而继续保持增长态势。城市化进程的快速发展促进了城市住房市场的发展,但也带来了一些社会关注问题。在城市化发展的目前阶段,居民住房供需矛盾突出,因此政府应当合理规划城市化发展,解决城市居民住房供需矛盾,提高城市居民收入水平。为了满足居民住房需求,政府还应当在加大保障性住房建设的同时,合理调控城市住房价格,不仅要改善城市居民居住水平,而且应当关注与居住水平相关的周边环境建设、医疗交通等等,为了居民生活水平的提高而努力。
[Abstract]:City refers to the agricultural population into the city population, rural area into city area, agricultural activities into non agricultural activities. With the development of our city economy level, the rural population gradually to the city area migration area, the migration of rural population to the urban population in the proportion of the total population increasing on the one hand housing. As one of the four basic requirements of basic necessities of life of residents, the urban population will increase demand for housing and housing prices have a positive effect, so the city to raise the level of urban housing market will also bring a broad space for development. On the other hand, with the development of city development, city infrastructure construction, resources carrying the ability of health, transportation and so on will become the focus of social attention, improve the level of city put forward higher to the sustainable development of the city Pray.
Imbalance of regional economic development and urban and rural regional development difference makes the rural population migration to the city area, city population increases year by year. To increase the population of the city has increased the demand for housing, but also pushed up the prices in the city, so this paper will focus on the urbanization level and the City housing market. The content of the article is to analyze the development of changes in our city level, characters in the process of the city and the existing problems, to explore the influence of urbanization level and the city housing market, change and development of city level and housing market forecast and analysis. Because the housing market can be divided into housing prices and housing demand two so the attributes of the housing market is presented, from the two aspects of housing sales prices and housing sales.
Firstly, this paper analyzes the impact of the development level of the city's housing market from the relevant theory, discuss the influence mechanism. Secondly, analysis of China's current overall level of city development status and existing problems, analyzes the status quo and changes in the housing market. In the empirical analysis, from 1998 to 2011 in China's 23 provinces, city, autonomous region the panel data of city and the level of housing sales prices, housing sales are variable coefficient panel model estimation, in addition to the housing market impact of the two sides of the city development. Again using fifth census data and sixth census data, according to the forecast rate of growth in the future of China's urban and rural differences between the city and the whole the area level changes, and the use of city level forecasts for housing sales and housing sales price forecast. Finally, according to the research contents and research The conclusions put forward relevant policy recommendations.
The results of this study indicate that the current overall level of development in the city of our country city of stage of development of the rapid development of the city in the three stage of the model, will remain at the stage in the next period of time. The empirical results show that the improvement of the level of city residents of the city has increased the city housing demand, has a positive effect on housing sales and it also makes the average sales price of housing to further improve the city development has significant effect on the housing market, but different areas between the city level of the housing market. At the same time the influence of different panel results regression model estimates show that macroeconomic situation variables have significant influence on housing sales, but the impact on housing prices is not significant. This is likely to come from the real estate developers in the sluggish economy in order to avoid the loss of housing development projects Would rather reduce the loss, then the housing sales are not willing to reduce the housing sales price level. Due to the predicted result from the view of the city, the whole city of our country by 2020 will reach the level of 61.41%, the overall level of the city in 2028 will exceed 70%, entered into the third stage of city development. The housing market prediction results show that the city housing sales prices and housing sales for urban residents housing rigid demand and to maintain growth.
The rapid development of city development to promote the development of the housing market in the city, but also brought some social concerns. In the present stage of the development of the city, the contradiction between supply and demand of housing is prominent, so the government should be reasonable planning of city development, city residents housing to solve the contradiction between supply and demand, improve the income level of city residents. In order to meet the residents of housing the government should also increase in demand for affordable housing construction, reasonable regulation of city housing prices, not only to improve the level of city residents, but also should pay attention to the construction of environment associated with the living standards of medical, transportation and so on, in order to improve the living standards and efforts.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F299.23

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