基于实物期权的水污染治理投资决策研究

发布时间：2018-02-02 22:30

本文关键词： 水污染治理投资决策实物期权 BOT　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济社会的高速发展，人类的生活质量迅速提升，但随之而来的对资源环境，尤其是水资源的破坏极为严重。因此，逐步改善日益恶化的水资源环境，加大对水污染治理项目的建设力度，越来越受到国家和政府的重视。随着水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项的启动，我国的水污染治理工作已经步入了一个新的阶段。目前，我国水污染治理的资金主要来源于政府财政投资，而水污染治理项目的运营模式主要是BOT和TOT两种模式。为了促进水污染治理领域的市场化发展，，国家积极推进水污染治理项目投资多元化、大力倡导运营模式多样化发展。在这种趋势下，水污染治理投资决策问题成为该领域亟待解决的问题之一。本文在对我国水污染治理投资领域的发展现状及其影响因素进行深入分析的基础之上，运用实物期权理论和方法，建立了水污染治理投资决策成长期权模型。首先对污染治理BOT项目的期权特征进行分析。根据水污染治理BOT项目的实际情况，又将模型进一步划分为单一型成长期权模型、序列型成长期权模型两种形式，并对模型参数的设定进行了详细分析。运用所构建的投资决策模型对某城市拟建设的污水处理项目进行了评价分析，结合净现值方法进行了比较，结果显示该模型在水污染治理投资决策领域具有优越性。同时，对模型中的参数进行了敏感性分析。其中，收益波动率、无风险收益率等两个变量敏感性最强。本文的研究在一定程度上完善和补充了相关领域的发展，具有较为重要的理论意义和现实意义。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, the quality of human life is improving rapidly, but the damage to resources and environment, especially water resources, is very serious. Therefore, the deteriorating environment of water resources is gradually improved. To strengthen the construction of water pollution control projects, more and more attention has been paid by the state and the government. With the water pollution control and treatment of major scientific and technological projects started. China's water pollution control work has entered a new stage. At present, the capital of water pollution control in China mainly comes from the government financial investment. In order to promote the market-oriented development of water pollution control, the government actively promotes the diversification of investment in water pollution control projects. Under this trend, the investment decision problem of water pollution control has become one of the problems to be solved urgently in this field. Based on the in-depth analysis of the current situation of investment in water pollution control in China and its influencing factors, this paper applies the real option theory and method. The investment decision growth option model of water pollution control is established. Firstly, the option characteristics of BOT project are analyzed. According to the actual situation of water pollution control BOT project. The model is further divided into single growth option model and sequential growth options model. The investment decision model is used to evaluate and analyze the sewage treatment project to be built in a city, and the net present value method is compared. The results show that the model has advantages in the field of investment decision for water pollution control. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of the parameters in the model is analyzed. The sensitivity of the two variables such as risk-free rate of return is the most sensitive. To some extent, the research in this paper improves and complements the development of related fields, which has more important theoretical and practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.48;X52

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