厦门市商品房价格风险分析

发布时间：2018-02-09 08:55

本文关键词： 房地产价格风险预警机制　出处：《华侨大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，厦门市房地产业蓬勃发展，商品房价格也节节上涨。本文从房地产泡沫理论方面着手对厦门市房地产市场进行研究，通过回顾房地产发展历史和市场运行统计数据，对房地产市场发展状况进行初步分析；其次，采用指标体系法，通过房价增长率/GDP增长率、房地产投资/固定资产总投资、房地产贷款增长率、待售率、房价收入比五个指标，对厦门市房地产价格是否偏离基本价值进行衡量，并采用这五个单一指标，运用层次分析法，构造评价房地产泡沫的综合指标，对2002至2012年厦门市房地产市场的泡沫状况进行实证研究，得出结论。再通过房地产市场供求现状分析，揭示厦门市商品房供需结构矛盾，对房价上涨、产生泡沫的原因进行分析。通过分析和论证，本文得出的结论是：近年来厦门市房地产市场结构不合理，供求不平衡，商品房价格虚高，市场存在一定的泡沫成分，必须警惕泡沫破裂带来的风险。在市场供大于求的情况下，垄断和投机是房价上涨的主要原因。目前对厦门市房地产市场的分析多数属于定性分析。本文力求用数字说话，从定量角度对商品房价格泡沫指数进行测度，揭示房地产泡沫的危害，提出建立预防泡沫破裂的预警机制，针对目前厦门市房地产市场存在的问题，，提出宏观调控政策建议，为房地产市场特别是商品住宅市场的健康发展提供参考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry of Xiamen has been booming, and the price of commercial housing has also been rising. This paper studies the real estate market in Xiamen from the theory of real estate bubble, and reviews the history of real estate development and the statistical data of market operation. The development of the real estate market is preliminarily analyzed. Secondly, by using the index system method, through the five indicators of the growth rate of house price / GDP, the real estate investment / total fixed asset investment, the growth rate of real estate loans, the rate of pending sale and the ratio of house price to income, This paper measures whether the real estate price of Xiamen deviates from the basic value, and uses these five single indexes to construct a comprehensive index to evaluate the real estate bubble. This paper makes an empirical study on the bubble situation of the real estate market in Xiamen from 2002 to 2012, and draws a conclusion. Through the analysis of the present situation of supply and demand in the real estate market, it reveals the contradiction between the supply and demand structure of commercial housing in Xiamen and the rise of housing prices. Causes of bubbles are analyzed. Through analysis and argumentation, the paper draws the following conclusions: in recent years, the structure of real estate market in Xiamen is unreasonable, the supply and demand are not balanced, the price of commercial housing is false, and there is a certain bubble component in the market. We must be on guard against the risk of bubble bursting. Monopoly and speculation are the main reasons for the rise of house prices when the supply exceeds the demand. At present, most of the analysis of the real estate market in Xiamen belongs to qualitative analysis. This paper measures the index of commodity house price bubble from a quantitative angle, reveals the harm of real estate bubble, puts forward an early warning mechanism to prevent the bubble from bursting, and puts forward some policy suggestions for macro-control in view of the problems existing in the real estate market in Xiamen at present. For the real estate market, especially the healthy development of the commercial housing market to provide a reference.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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