基于模糊影响图的保障性住房BT融资项目风险评价理论及应用

发布时间：2018-02-12 00:11

本文关键词： 保障性住房 BT项目项目风险模糊影响图风险识别风险评价　出处：《重庆交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：BT模式作为一种吸引社会投资、解决保障性房建设关键瓶颈即资金需求的有效方式，近年来在保障性住房建设中得到了尝试性应用。大型保障性住房BT融资项目具有涉及面广、法律关系复杂、影响因素多、工程量大、工期长、占用资金庞大、回购期长、融资结构复杂导致存在大量的不确定风险性因素等特点，决定了保障性住房BT融资项目的风险性。在实践中，对这些风险因素及其影响关系的分析、评价和管理，还很薄弱。系统科学地对保障性住房BT融资项目的风险进行析与评价，从而进行有效控制与管理，最大限度地降低项目风险，以及完善保障性住房BT融资项目管理理论，都具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文针对保障性住房BT融资项目的风险控制和管理所存在的问题，结合BT项目的特点，在研究了保障性住房BT融资项目风险特性的基础上，运用风险分析与控制理论，特别是针对保障性住房BT融资项目风险影响关系复杂，传统的风险分析工具不能直观明了地表征复杂的风险问题，本文基于风险评价分析理论和影响图理论，对保障性住房BT融资项目风险评价问题进行了系统深入研究。首先，采用影响图方法对保障性住房BT融资项目实施过程中的风险因素进行了全面分析识别，建立了保障性住房BT融资项目风险空间和风险检测表；然后，运用模糊影响图理论，深入研究了各风险因素之间的相互影响关系，构建了保障性住房BT融资项目风险影响图，建立了保障性住房BT融资项目风险模糊影响图评价模型；进一步，以重庆市“民心佳园”公租房项目在BT建设模式下的运作为例，运用保障性住房BT融资项目的风险模糊影响图评价模型，对BT项目最敏感的回购风险问题进行了详细分析和风险评价，在此基础上根据风险评价结果提出了相应的“民心佳园”公租房项目风险控制的建议。最后，研究了保障性住房BT融资项目风险评价的计算机评价算法，建立了保障性住房BT融资项目风险评价系统。本文基于模糊影响图理论建立了保障性住房BT融资项目风险模糊影响图风险评价模型，并应用此模型对“民心佳园”公租房BT建设模式下的回购风险进行了评价，，这在保障性住房BT融资项目风险分析和控制方面是一种新的探索，完善和丰富了保障性住房BT融资项目风险识别和评价理论，同时为推进我国保障性住房BT融资项目风险的有效控制与管理的工程实践提供了借鉴。本论文结合重庆市社会科学规划项目《重庆市保障性住房可持续建设BT融资模式及风险控制理论研究》（编号：2011YBGL112）完成。
[Abstract]:BT model as a way to attract social investment, effective way to solve the bottleneck of housing construction is key to ensure the funding needs, in recent years in the construction of affordable housing has been applied to large affordable housing BT financing project has involved in a wide range of complex legal relationship, many influencing factors, large quantities, long construction period, take the huge funds, repurchase period, complicated financing structure leading to the existence of uncertain risk factors such as a large number of features, determines the risk of affordable housing BT financing project. In practice, analysis of the relationship between these risk factors and its influence, evaluation and management, is still very weak. The system of affordable housing scientifically BT project risk analysis and evaluation, so as to carry out effective control and management, reduce project risk, and improve the affordable housing BT financing project management theory, has the important theory Meaning and practical value.
The existence of risk control and management based on affordable housing BT financing project problems, combined with the characteristics of BT project, based on the affordable housing BT financing project risk characteristics, using the theory of risk analysis and control, especially for the impact of risk affordable housing BT financing project is complex, the traditional risk analysis the tool cannot directly characterize complex problems and clear risk, the risk assessment theory and effect based on the theory of risk assessment of affordable housing BT financing projects carried out in-depth study of the system. Firstly, the influence diagram method were analyzed to identify risk factors in the process of the implementation of affordable housing BT financing project, set up the affordable housing BT financing project risk and risk detection table space; then, using fuzzy influence diagram theory, deeply researched various risk factors The relationship between them, the impact of building affordable housing BT project financing risk, build affordable housing BT financing project risk fuzzy influence diagram evaluation model; further, taking Chongqing city's "Minxin garden" public housing project in the construction of the BT mode as an example, the use of risk of affordable housing BT financing project fuzzy influence diagram evaluation model, the most sensitive issue repurchase risk of BT project carried out a detailed analysis and risk assessment, based on the risk assessment results and put forward the corresponding "Minxin garden" public housing project risk control suggestions. Finally, the algorithm of computer evaluation of risk assessment of affordable housing BT financing project to establish a risk assessment system, affordable housing BT financing project.
In this paper, fuzzy influence diagram theory was established based on the affordable housing BT financing project risk fuzzy influence diagram risk evaluation model, and apply this model to "Minxin garden" BT of public rental housing construction under the mode of repurchase risk evaluation, which is a new exploration in the affordable housing BT financing project risk analysis and control, improve and enrich the risk identification and evaluation of affordable housing BT project financing theory, and provides a reference for the engineering practice. The effective control and management to promote China's security risk of BT project financing of housing.
This paper is based on the Chongqing social science planning project, the BT financing mode and risk control theory of Chongqing's affordable housing construction (2011YBGL112).

【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.233.4;F275

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