基于灰色综合评估法的大型商业地产投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-02-14 06:00

本文关键词： 大型商业地产等级全息模型(HHM) 风险评估灰色系统世界城光谷步行街　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年来，在我国政府对住宅地产宏观调控力度不断加大的背景下，开发商从住宅中获取超额利润的难度日益增大。商业地产因其丰厚的利润空间逐渐成为房地产开发商的一个新的投资热点，然而作为一个融合地产开发和商业经营的复合型地产形态，国内投资者普遍缺乏一套较为成熟的商业地产运营模式，盲目投资带来了很大的风险。对于投资规模超过7万平方米的大型商业地产项目开发而言，一个项目的成败有时甚至决定了一个企业的命运和市场生存能力，，加强项目投资风险管理工作提高项目的成功率迫在眉睫。本文顺应大型商业地产风险管理的需要，展开了对其投资风险识别和评价方法的研究。首先着重归纳了大型商业地产投资与普通住宅的不同特征，结合案例分析了“产权出售”、“租售结合”、“只租不售”三种投资模式的特点和应用前景。其次采用等级全息模型法（HHM）从多个方位和视角构建风险识别的HHM框架，比较系统和全面的识别了大型商业地产的投资风险，并依据风险评估指标体系构建的6大原则，结合案例分析、调查问卷、频数统计、德尔菲法等多种方法构建了大型商业地产投资风险评估指标体系。同时将灰色系统理论引入到大型商业地产风险评估中，与层次分析法相结合构建了大型商业地产投资风险的灰色综合评估模型。该方法能有效弥补商业地产投资风险分析中常见的样本缺失和数据不全等弊端，是一种简单适用、可操作性强的评估方法。最后本文选择具有代表性的武汉世界城·光谷步行街项目收集到的样本数据，通过风险分析和计算，论证了灰色综合评估模型的可靠性和有效性。本文的研究成果对企业投资大型商业地产的前期决策和运营管理具有很好的实际意义，也期待能为商业地产行业的健康发展尽微薄之力。
[Abstract]:In recent years, under the background of the government's increasing macro-control of residential real estate, It is increasingly difficult for developers to obtain excess profits from housing. Commercial real estate is becoming a new investment hot spot for real estate developers because of its huge profit margins. However, as a combination of real estate development and commercial management, domestic investors generally lack a more mature commercial real estate operation model. Blind investment brings great risks. For the development of large commercial real estate projects with a scale of more than 70,000 square meters, the success or failure of a project sometimes even determines the fate of an enterprise and the viability of the market. It is urgent to strengthen the project investment risk management to improve the success rate of the project. According to the needs of risk management of large-scale commercial real estate, this paper studies the methods of investment risk identification and evaluation. Firstly, it summarizes the different characteristics of large-scale commercial real estate investment and ordinary housing. This paper analyzes the characteristics and application prospects of the three investment modes of "property right sale", "rent-sale combination" and "only rent and no sale". Secondly, the hierarchical holographic model method is used to construct the HHM framework for risk identification from multiple directions and perspectives. It systematically and comprehensively identifies the investment risk of large-scale commercial real estate, and according to the six principles of risk assessment index system, combining case analysis, questionnaire, frequency statistics, Several methods, such as Delphi method, are used to construct the risk assessment index system of large-scale commercial real estate investment, and the grey system theory is introduced into the risk assessment of large-scale commercial real estate. Combined with the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the grey comprehensive evaluation model of the investment risk of large-scale commercial real estate is constructed. This method can effectively remedy the defects of sample missing and incomplete data in the risk analysis of commercial real estate investment, which is a simple and applicable method. Finally, this paper selects the sample data collected by the representative project of Wuhan World City 路Guanggu pedestrian Street, and proves the reliability and effectiveness of the grey comprehensive evaluation model through risk analysis and calculation. The research results of this paper have a good practical significance for enterprises to invest in large-scale commercial real estate decision-making and operation management, but also expect to contribute to the healthy development of commercial real estate industry.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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