逆房地产周期调控政策对抑制银行危机的有效性分析

发布时间：2018-02-15 22:37

本文关键词： 逆房地产周期调控银行危机银行系统流动性　出处：《国际金融研究》2014年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文利用Probit银行危机预警系统,并引入"交叉项"的处理方法,观察政府能否借由提高市场利率和银行系统流动性等逆房地产周期的调控政策,温和地挤出房价泡沫而不触发银行危机。实证结果显示,前期房价上涨会增加当期银行危机发生的概率,且边际效应随前期房价上涨率的增加而提高。平均而言,实际利率需提高至6%以上,或银行系统流动性需达20%以上,才能有效防范银行体系不受房价泡沫破灭的影响而引发银行危机。
[Abstract]:This paper makes use of the Probit banking crisis warning system and introduces the method of "cross item" to observe whether the government can adjust and control the reverse real estate cycle by raising the market interest rate and the liquidity of the banking system. The empirical results show that the upfront housing price increases the probability of the current bank crisis, and the marginal effect increases with the increase of the price rise rate. Real interest rates need to rise to more than 6%, or liquidity in the banking system needs to reach more than 20%, in order to effectively prevent the banking system from being affected by the bursting of the housing bubble and triggering a banking crisis.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学中国公共财政与政策研究院;中国银行北京市分行;
【基金】：“教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC790200)” “中央财经大学青年科研创新团队”的联合资助
【分类号】：F293.3;F832.4

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