中国货币政策房地产价格传导机制研究

发布时间：2018-02-20 17:34

本文关键词： 货币政策房地产价格宏观调控存款准备金率协整检验　出处：《安徽财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1998年住房制度改革以来,我国房地产行业的持续发展使其逐步成为国民经济的支柱产业。但是由于起步比较晚,各种配套制度不健全,我国房地产行业在发展的过程中也出现了很多问题,其中最突出的问题之一就是房地产价格的持续不断高涨,这对微观主体和宏观经济,都产生了很大的负面影响,也引发了学者们的广泛讨论。货币政策作为调控宏观经济的有力工具之一,近年来多次被运用于房地产市场的调控,然而却没有很好的起到抑制房价的作用,使人们对货币政策调控房地产价格的效果产生了怀疑。本文在此大背景下,着重研究了货币政策的房地产价格传导机制。首先,从规范分析的角度论述了利率、存款准备金率和货币供应量等货币政策的调控将对房地产价格产生何种影响以及房地产价格变化以后,又会对投资和消费等实体经济产生何种影响。紧接着运用了协整检验,脉冲响应和方差分解等方法分别检验了各种货币政策调控房地产价格的效果以及房地产价格对实体经济的影响程度。在以上理论分析与实证分析的基础上,本文得出以下结论：首先肯定了货币政策房地产价格传导机制的存在,货币政策对房地产价格的调控会产生一定的效果,但同时不可否认的是,货币政策的调控仍有不足之处,货币政策房地产价格传导机制仍有不通畅的地方,本文在找到该机制受阻的根源的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system in 1998, the continuous development of the real estate industry in China has made it gradually become the pillar industry of the national economy. However, due to the late start, various supporting systems are not perfect. There are also many problems in the development of real estate industry in our country. One of the most prominent problems is the continuous upsurge of real estate prices, which has a great negative impact on the microcosmic main body and macro economy. It also triggered extensive discussion among scholars. Monetary policy, as one of the powerful tools to control the macro economy, has been used in the real estate market for many times in recent years, but it has not played a very good role in restraining house prices. It makes people doubt the effect of monetary policy on real estate price control. In this context, this paper focuses on the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy. First, the paper discusses interest rate from the perspective of normative analysis. What kind of impact will monetary policies such as reserve ratio and money supply have on real estate prices and, after changes in real estate prices, what impact will they have on the real economy, such as investment and consumption. Then cointegration tests have been used. The methods of impulse response and variance decomposition are used to examine the effects of various monetary policies on real estate prices and the impact of real estate prices on the real economy. Based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: firstly, it affirms the existence of monetary policy real estate price transmission mechanism, monetary policy on real estate price control will have certain effect. But at the same time, it is undeniable that there are still some deficiencies in the regulation of monetary policy, and there are still some problems in the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on the basis of finding out the root of the obstruction of the mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

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