我国住宅价格财富效应与成本效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 17:41

本文关键词： 住宅价格财富效应成本效应需求供给消费　出处：《山西财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着住房体制改革的深入，住宅价格对宏观经济的影响越来越显现出来，其中住宅价格对消费的影响不但关系到居民生活及企业生产，同时也关系着我国转变经济增长方式的大计方针。在我国，住宅价格是否具有成本效应及财富效应？其对消费的影响程度如何？我国住宅价格宏观调控措施该走向何方？这些都是关系国计民生的问题。本文通过对我国及35个大中城市的相关基础数据构建时间序列模型及面板数据模型，对我国住宅价格财富效应及成本效应进行定量研究。主要结论如下：首先，我国住宅价格具有正的财富效应，且各大中城市的水平高于全国平均水平，而无论是全国水平还是各大中城市，住宅价格财富效应要高于股票市场带来的财富效应。其次，我国住宅价格的上涨会增加居民居住成本，，进而影响居民生活成本，对消费需求产生影响，且不同地区人均实际居住支出存在较大差异，使得各地区对消费的需求各不相同。再次，我国住宅价格的上涨会增加企业成本，房价越高的城市，职工对于工资水平的要求也越高，企业面临的劳动力成本也越大，可变成本上升，最终导致商品供给的波动。最后，对各大中城市进行因子分析后得出，影响住宅价格成本效应的主要因子有成本因子及比重因子；聚类分析后得出，我国35个大中城市中北京、上海及深圳的住宅价格对居民和企业带来的压力最大，其供需关系存在较大矛盾，导致商品价格及产量的变化。在实证研究中，以我国大中城市数据作为基础数据，利用相关性分析、回归分析、因子分析、聚类分析等计量经济学分析技术进行定量研究，同时辅之以必要的定性分析支持和解释。本文共分六章,第一章为绪论部分,对文章的研究背景、研究目的与意义、研究方法、创新点及住宅价格的定义做了概括性阐述。第二章是国内外文献综述部分，对国内外对住宅价格财富效应及成本效应的研究成果进行了详细阐述，并提出观点。第三章通过建立时间序列模型及面板数据模型对我国住宅价格及消费的关系进行了回归分析，实证检验了我国住宅价格的财富效应。第四章通过建立面板数据模型，分析了住宅价格与居民居住成本、职工工资之间的关系，验证了我国住宅价格具有成本效应，并对35个大中城市的数据进行了因子分析及聚类分析，最后通过定量分析的结果研究了我国消费市场出现的供需矛盾。第五章对本文研究的结论进行了总结并提出进一步的研究工作结论部分。第六章根据研究结论提出了相关对策建议，认为我国应当充分利用市场机制调节住宅价格，保障住房刚性需求者的需求，同时完善房地产二手市场及租赁市场，大力推进廉租房建设，完善房地产税收制度，充分发挥正的财富效应，减弱成本效应，双管齐下，促进房地产行业及宏观经济的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the housing system reform, the impact of housing prices on the macro economy is becoming more and more obvious, and the impact of housing prices on consumption is not only related to the lives of residents and the production of enterprises. At the same time, it is also related to the policy of changing the mode of economic growth. In our country, whether the housing price has the effect of cost and wealth? What is its impact on consumption? Where should China's housing price macro-control measures go? These problems are related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. This paper constructs time series model and panel data model based on the relevant basic data of China and 35 large and medium-sized cities. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly, the housing price in China has a positive wealth effect, and the level of large and medium-sized cities is higher than the national average. The wealth effect of housing price is higher than the wealth effect brought by the stock market. Secondly, the rising housing price in our country will increase the resident's living cost and then affect the resident's living cost. It has an impact on consumer demand, and there are great differences in the actual living expenditure per capita in different regions, which makes the demand for consumption different in different regions. Thirdly, the rising of housing prices in our country will increase the cost of enterprises, the higher the housing prices, the higher the prices of cities. The higher the staff and workers' demand for wage levels, the greater the labor costs faced by enterprises, and the higher the variable costs, which ultimately lead to fluctuations in the supply of commodities. Finally, after factor analysis of major and medium-sized cities, it is concluded that, The main factors influencing the cost effect of housing price are cost factor and specific gravity factor. After cluster analysis, it is concluded that housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China bring the greatest pressure to residents and enterprises. The contradiction between supply and demand leads to the change of commodity price and output. In the empirical study, using the data of large and medium cities as the basic data, using correlation analysis, regression analysis, factor analysis, Cluster analysis and other econometric analysis techniques carry out quantitative research, supplemented by necessary qualitative analysis to support and explain. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is the introduction part, the research background, research purpose and significance, research methods, innovation points and the definition of housing price are summarized. The second chapter is the domestic and foreign literature review part. The research results of wealth effect and cost effect of housing price at home and abroad are expounded in detail. The third chapter analyzes the relationship between housing price and consumption by establishing time series model and panel data model. Chapter 4th analyzes the relationship between housing price and residents' living cost and employee's wages by building panel data model, and verifies that housing price has cost effect in China. The data of 35 large and medium cities were analyzed by factor analysis and cluster analysis. Chapter 5th summarizes the conclusion of this paper and puts forward the conclusion of further research. Chapter 6th is based on the conclusion of the research. Put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions, We should make full use of the market mechanism to adjust the housing price, protect the demand of the rigid demand of housing, perfect the second-hand market and lease market of the real estate, vigorously promote the construction of low-rent housing and perfect the tax system of the real estate. We should give full play to the positive wealth effect, weaken the cost effect, and promote the sustainable development of the real estate industry and the macro economy.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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