北京市住宅价格的影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-03-04 14:55

本文选题：房地产价格　切入点：影响因素　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1998年的住房制度改革以后，我国房地产市场一直保持高速发展的态势。房地产的发展既和国民经济的发展息息相关，又和人们的幸福紧密相连。然而，，近年来我国房地产业的发展出现了诸多问题：房价上涨过快、房地产市场秩序混乱、房地产市场结构不合理、部分地区房地产投资规模过大等问题尤为突出。北京作为我国的首都，其房地产业的发展更是全国关注的焦点，然而北京房地产价格过高和上涨过快已是不争的事实。房地产市场的诸多问题不仅会严重影响到国民经济的健康、稳定发展，还危及着社会的安定、和谐。所以，近年来房地产市场、房地产价格的波动及房地产市场宏观调控也是专家学者们研究的热点问题，对影响房地产价格的因素进行理论和实证研究有重要的理论和现实意义。本文研究的对象是北京市住宅价格的影响因素。影响住宅价格的因素错综复杂，目前专家学者从很多角度对我国以及北京住宅价格的影响因素进行了定性和定量的分析，但是对于北京市住宅价格的影响因素的敏感程度及影响因子的贡献程度到底是多少尚无全面系统的研究。本文以房地产价格的理论为基础，分别从理论和实证角度来研究北京市住宅房地产价格的影响因素。本文以近11年北京市住宅均价及需求、供给方面的数据为基础，运用SPSS软件的回归分析和相关分析，发现北京市住宅价格的显著影响因素是常住人口的变化和住宅竣工房屋面积的变化。对最显著因素常住人口中的外来人口与北京市住宅价格变化的相关性进行分析，并分析限购政策实施前后北京住宅价格的变化。最后的出结论并提出控制人口数量、贯彻实施限购政策、加快保障房体系建设、推行实施房产税等建议对策。本文的研究对于北京住宅价格的变动和房地产市场宏观调控有一定的参考意义，但是限于篇幅和研究水平，仍存在数据均来自于统计年鉴而可能会导致统计路径的不同出现误差、有些影响因素的数据无法获得或者量化而无法加入模型等一些不足之处。
[Abstract]:After the reform of housing system in 1998, the real estate market in our country has maintained a rapid development trend. The development of real estate is not only closely related to the development of national economy, but also closely related to the happiness of people. In recent years, there have been many problems in the development of the real estate industry in our country: the housing price rises too fast, the order of the real estate market is chaotic, the structure of the real estate market is unreasonable, The problems of excessive real estate investment in some regions are particularly prominent. As the capital of China, the development of the real estate industry in Beijing is the focus of national attention. However, it is an indisputable fact that the real estate prices in Beijing are too high and rising too fast. Many problems in the real estate market will not only seriously affect the health and steady development of the national economy, but also endanger the stability and harmony of the society. In recent years, the real estate market, the real estate price fluctuation and the real estate market macro-control are also the hot issues that the experts and scholars study, it has important theoretical and practical significance to study the factors that affect the real estate price theoretically and empirically. The research object of this paper is the influencing factors of housing prices in Beijing. The factors affecting housing prices are complicated. At present, experts and scholars have carried out qualitative and quantitative analysis on the influencing factors of housing prices in China and Beijing from many angles. However, there is no comprehensive and systematic study on the sensitivity of the influencing factors and the contribution of the influencing factors in Beijing. This paper is based on the theory of real estate prices. Based on the data of housing average price, demand and supply in Beijing in the past 11 years, this paper uses the regression analysis and correlation analysis of SPSS software to study the influencing factors of housing real estate price in Beijing from the perspective of theory and practice. It is found that the significant influencing factors of housing price in Beijing are the change of permanent residence population and the change of housing area. The correlation between the foreign population of the resident population and the change of housing price in Beijing is analyzed. The paper also analyzes the changes of housing prices in Beijing before and after the implementation of the limited purchase policy. Finally, the author draws a conclusion and puts forward some suggestions for controlling the population, carrying out the policy of limiting purchase, speeding up the construction of indemnificatory apartment's system, and carrying out the implementation of real estate tax, and so on. The research in this paper has some reference significance for the change of housing price in Beijing and the macro-control of real estate market, but limited to space and research level. There are still some shortcomings such as the data coming from the statistical yearbook may lead to different errors in the statistical path and the data of some influential factors can not be obtained or quantified and can not be added to the model and so on.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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