中国股票市场与经济增长关系的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-13 17:48

本文选题：股票市场　切入点：经济增长　出处：《南京理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国股票市场自成立以来,其表现一波三折。与此同时,中国经济却依然按既定的目标保持着高速增长。我国经济增长和股票市场发展之间是否存在相关性,它们之间具体的相互作用机制是什么,股票市场是如何促进经济增长的,经济增长又是如何推动中国股票市场发展的。对这些问题的研究有助于我们正确地制定相关的股市政策和宏观经济政策,具有很强的现实意义。本文首先查阅了国内外学者对股票市场和经济增长关系的相关研究,并进行了综述。接着,在分析股票市场的基本功能基础上,对股票市场发展和经济增长的相互作用机制进行论述。然后参考莱文和泽尔沃斯(1998)提出的反映股票市场发展状况的指标和研究方法,使用我国1994-2010年的季度数据进行格兰杰因果检验和回归分析,得到我国股票市场发展与经济增长关系的相关结论。通过本文研究发现：基于所选指标季度数据的一阶差分的格兰杰因果检验分析,我国经济增长明显是股票市场发展的原因,但要滞后一个季度；而股票市场发展不是影响经济增长的原因。接着对股票市场各指标进行回归分析,我国股票市场规模指标与经济增长之间存在相对明显的正相关关系。股票市场流动性的指标换手率与经济增长呈负相关,且相关性很小。股票市场的交易价值与经济增长存在微弱的正相关关系。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of the Chinese stock market, its performance has been in a series of twists and turns. At the same time, the Chinese economy is still growing at a high speed in accordance with the set goals. Is there a correlation between China's economic growth and the development of the stock market? What are their specific mechanisms of interaction, how the stock market promotes economic growth, The research on these problems is helpful for us to correctly formulate relevant stock market policies and macroeconomic policies, which is of great practical significance. In this paper, we first refer to the domestic and foreign scholars on the relationship between the stock market and economic growth, and make a summary. Then, based on the analysis of the basic functions of the stock market, This paper discusses the interaction mechanism between stock market development and economic growth, and then refers to the indicators and research methods proposed by Levin and Zell Voss to reflect the development of stock market. By using the quarterly data from 1994 to 2010 in China, the Granger causality test and regression analysis are carried out, and the relevant conclusions of the relationship between the development of the stock market and economic growth in China are obtained. Based on the Granger causality test analysis of the quarterly data of the selected indicators, the economic growth of our country is obviously the reason of the stock market development, but it must lag one quarter; The development of the stock market is not the reason for the economic growth. Then the regression analysis of the various indicators of the stock market is carried out. There is a relatively positive correlation between stock market scale index and economic growth, and the turnover rate of stock market liquidity is negatively correlated with economic growth. And the correlation is very small. There is a weak positive correlation between the trading value of the stock market and economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F832.51

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