公司多元化经营与财务风险关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 00:35

本文选题：多元化　切入点：Z值　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：多元化经营是公司金融领域的研究重点，自二十世纪五十年代以来，日益引起学者的关注，迄今为止，关于多元化的研究主要集中在多元化对企业绩效的利弊上，成果众多，结论不一，本文对此不作过多评述。而在此基础上，从财务风险角度考察企业多元化经营的合理性，目前国内外对这方面的研究相对较少，本文就中国上市公司多元化战略进行理论分析和实证研究，探究多元化经营战略与企业财务风险之间的关系，以便从企业财务风险角度为我国上市公司多元化经营提供可行的建议和决策依据。本文首先回顾多元化的发展历史，提出研究的问题，根据以前的研究文献明确多元化经营战略的概念，界定多元化战略的分类和测度，引入Z-score模型考察企业财务风险的程度，在此基础上，采用沪市上市公司2008年-2011年样本数据，对多元化战略与企业财务风险的相关关系进行实证分析，结果表明：企业依靠增加行业数目的方式扩大多元化，会导致企业破产风险的可能提高；企业在开展多元化经营的同时，如果能保证主营业务的规模及其销售额在全部销售额中的比重，则可以降低企业的财务风险；而企业的多元化规模与企业的财务风险存在显著负相关关系，即企业多元化经营中，多元化程度越深、规模越大，企业破产的风险越低。在证明多元化对企业破产风险影响的同时，本文选取了现金流量、应收账款及资产负债率，进一步考察多元化的财务风险效应，得出结论：在对现金流量的分析中，发现行业数目对企业现金流量没有显著性影响，，而业务销售额集中度和多元化规模则分别从正负两方面显著影响企业的经营现金流量；企业经营业务的数目增多对应企业应收账款的增多，如果主营业务销售额在销售总额中所占比重提高，则会降低企业应收账款数，多元化程度与应收账款显著正相关；在应收账款的回归结果方面，可以看出业务数量与之正相关，而主营业务销售额与之负相关，多元化程度与之正相关。对多元化与资产负债率的关系分析，结果显示多元化程度高导致企业资产负债率也较高。
[Abstract]:Diversification is the focus of research in the field of corporate finance. Since 1950s, scholars have paid more and more attention to diversification. Up to now, the research on diversification has mainly focused on the pros and cons of diversification on corporate performance and has achieved a lot. The conclusion is different, this article does not make too much comment on this, but on this basis, from the angle of financial risk to investigate the rationality of enterprise diversification, at present, there is relatively little research on this aspect at home and abroad. This paper makes theoretical analysis and empirical research on diversification strategy of listed companies in China, and explores the relationship between diversification strategy and financial risk of enterprises. In order to provide feasible suggestions and decision basis for the diversification of listed companies in China from the angle of enterprise financial risk. This paper first reviews the history of diversification, puts forward the research issues, defines the concept of diversification strategy, defines the classification and measurement of diversification strategy, and introduces Z-score model to investigate the degree of financial risk. On this basis, using the sample data of listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2011, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between diversification strategy and financial risk of enterprises. The results show that enterprises expand diversification by increasing the number of industries. It will lead to the increase of the risk of bankruptcy, and the enterprise can reduce the financial risk if it can ensure the scale of the main business and the proportion of the sales volume in the total sales. However, there is a significant negative correlation between the diversification scale and the financial risk of the enterprise, that is, the deeper the diversification degree, the larger the scale. The lower the risk of enterprise bankruptcy, the lower the risk of bankruptcy. While proving the influence of diversification on enterprise bankruptcy risk, this paper selects cash flow, accounts receivable and asset-liability ratio to further investigate the financial risk effect of diversification. Conclusion: in the analysis of cash flow, it is found that the number of industries has no significant influence on the cash flow of enterprises, while the concentration of business sales and the scale of diversification significantly affect the operating cash flow of enterprises from both positive and negative aspects. The increase in the number of business operations corresponds to the increase of accounts receivable. If the sales volume of the main business increases in the total sales volume, it will reduce the number of accounts receivable, and the diversification degree is significantly positive correlation with the accounts receivable; In the regression results of accounts receivable, we can see that the number of business is positively related to it, while the sales volume of main business is negatively correlated with it, and the degree of diversification is positively related to it. The results show that the high degree of diversification leads to a higher ratio of assets and liabilities.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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